1) Review of the matches
Results of the 25th matchday
Borussia Dortmund – 1.FC Köln 1:0 (1:0)
VfB Stuttgart – FC Schalke 04 1:0 (1:0)
Eintracht Frankfurt – 1.FC Kaiserslautern 0:0
Hannover 96 – FC Bayern Munich 3:1 (1:0)
Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim 2:0 (0:0)
- FC Nuremberg – FC St. Pauli 5:0 (3:0)
Bayer Leverkusen – VfL Wolfsburg 3:0 (3:0)
SC Freiburg – Werder Bremen 1:3 (0:1)
Hamburger SV – FSV Mainz 05 2:4 (1:0)
General assessment:
There are now various approaches to looking for a meaningful statement here. The referees were of course the focus, to pick out this aspect. And despite the realisation that they “didn’t have a good day” – which unites the media, those involved and those responsible – and the fact that there was a goal here that should not have been recognised and a penalty there that should not have been given, the discussion is blatantly missing the point.
The fact that so much attention is being paid to this “goal” by Marcel Jansen proves even more that the core of the evil is recognised intuitively somewhere, but that these examples have to be used to support the idea of justice, which must continue to be upheld. So: the faulty decisions that turn out to the disadvantage of goals are in an extremely unfavourable ratio to those that turn out in favour of a goal. The estimated ratio is about 10:1. 10 times the flag is raised wrongly, alternatively a clear penalty is refused recognition, in general agreement, 1 time the opposite happens, a penalty is given that was not one, an offside is overlooked (then mostly, as also the other way round, by millimetres) or a ball is seen behind the line that was not inside, as with Jansen. The outcry focuses on this latter error. Of course, such a difference, due to the fact that this ball was really not in, but the goal counted, whereas in the case of a wrongly decided offside or a not given penalty the goal would still be far from there. However, even that bordered on eyewash to put it down to that.
A goal has such a high value, shifts the odds in a game so enormously, that there is a reluctance to acknowledge it. You have these very few countable actions. As you can see, once again from the first three scores, 1:0, 1:0, 0:0, every goal that would have been added would have had a decisive character. And that doesn’t just refer to the tendency it would obviously change (which would of course also be the case with 3:3 or 2:3), but because of the changed course of the game that would be challenged by this goal. So, even with absolutely objective intentions on the part of the whistle blowers (and there is no intention to imply otherwise here), there would always remain the inclination that a goal may only count if everything also goes correctly, if there is not a shadow of a doubt.
It even goes a little further with these “honest intentions”. Because, even if one had them and now sent a referee of the views represented here onto the field, who in case of doubt would decide in favour of a goal, in favour of a penalty, against offside, this referee would have had his day after a week. Because: it is possible that he would be forgiven for the one mistake that resulted from an overlooked offside. In cooperation with the assistant, of course. The rule still says: offside is when the referee blows the whistle, but de facto the rule would have to be reworded as “offside is when the flag goes up”.
Now the referee would have let the ball go despite the raised flag, relied on his better eye or simply seen that the person for whom offside was indicated is really not the one who goes to the ball (this is often the case with high balls hit into the penalty area from the half-field, where clusters of players go to the ball and the assistant simply raises the flag in principle, regardless of the possibility that someone who is offside does not even come close to the ball). The second mistake, however, would lead to a ban, because this man would now definitely be identified as “Hoyzer” and would have blown the whistle, especially if both decisions were in favour of one of the two teams.
The considerations go even further: goals are and remain the salt in the soup. The perceived tension is increased by more goals. The more goals, the less clammy the decisions would be, because a goal against could be corrected more easily, so the referee would no longer be held so responsible for a single decision, because he would still have enough chances to correct the result. You can only do football good by interpreting the rules more freely in favour of the attackers, in favour of the goals. Now, the example of Jansen has sent the completely wrong signal. For the next critical goal decision, the signal is: be even more careful that everything is clean. In any case, if in doubt, disallow the goal.
The bigger scandal, in the opinion of this paper, occurred in Freiburg when a goal was disallowed for inexplicable reasons. This is perhaps not the really worrying thing about it, but rather the fact that this referee is still protected. “He must have seen something there.” For the future, this gives even more reason to consider disallowing goals already in the making (i.e. deciding on a striker’s foul long before the goal is scored). You are always in the clear. The only one who gets into trouble is the one who recognises a goal that was not a goal. Logical consequence: everyone decides against the strikers, against the goals. The further consequence: you can’t really watch the game any more. Even with 3 goals per game, the average waiting time for a goal would be 30 minutes. And that is simply too long.
Apart from that, of course, the results have provided some excitement. At the top, one should not overdo it or concentrate on the fight for the Champions League. But at the back, everything has come together. Sure, Stuttgart had that little bit of luck with the early sending-off or Werder with the disallowed 2:1 for Freiburg. But Gladbach, for example, took the mini-chance and beat a reeling Hoffenheim, so that they are within reach again. Pauli and Frankfurt are also within striking distance of the direct relegation zone, so you have to say: A lot can still happen there. It has become even more exciting, even if it is only the unpleasant fight against the small tragedy.
Bayern Munich should not necessarily be made the subject of discussion. Just emphasise here that the critical voices are unfair, because Bayern have dominated practically every opponent, even if Dortmund can be seen as an exception. They played some great football, and the points they scored could have been considerably higher. Van Gaal aptly commented on the DFB Cup defeat to Schalke by saying that this competition was considered the least important by the media and that afterwards they were blamed for this defeat and picked on. In the Champions League, Bayern played a fantastic (first) leg against last year’s final opponents Inter and everything but undeservedly took the victory, which they now have to defend during the week. This performance, and the competition as a whole, is representative of the team’s capabilities, which were only rather unluckily not realised a few times in the Bundesliga. The figures later will give an even closer indication of how much (little!) is actually missing.
2) The table situation
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 25 19 4 2 61 53 – 14 +39
2 Bayer Leverkusen 25 14 7 4 49 53 – 34 +19
3 Hannover 96 25 15 2 8 47 37 – 32 +5
4 FSV Mainz 05 25 14 1 10 43 41 – 32 +9
5 FC Bayern Munich 25 12 6 7 42 51 – 33 +18
6 1.FC Nürnberg 25 11 6 8 39 39 – 32 +7
7 Hamburger SV 25 11 4 10 37 37 – 36 +1
8 SC Freiburg 25 11 4 10 37 32 – 34 -2
9 TSG Hoffenheim 25 8 9 8 33 41 – 37 +4
10 FC Schalke 04 25 8 6 11 30 29 – 30 -1
11 1.FC Köln 25 8 5 12 29 31 – 43 -12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 25 8 4 13 28 24 – 34 -10
13 FC St. Pauli 25 8 4 13 28 27 – 43 -16
14 Werder Bremen 25 7 7 11 28 33 – 51 -18
15 VfL Wolfsburg 25 6 8 11 26 29 – 37 -8
16 VfB Stuttgart 25 7 4 14 25 43 – 47 -4
17 1.FC Kaiserslautern 25 6 7 12 25 33 – 42 -9
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 25 6 4 15 22 37 – 59 -22
670 670 0
Total number of games 225
Goals ø 2.98
It’s simply sensational that Hannover and Mainz are in 3rd and 4th place and holding on to the top spot. Hannover’s performances, which were initially considered critical here (despite all the appreciation for Mirko Slomka expressed long ago and much earlier), are stabilising more and more, which incidentally also speaks in favour of the theory that the assessments for the games should actually be based more and more on the table situation, and you simply have to take your hat off. Just like before Mainz, who were supposed to be talked into a crisis several times, but simply won over.
The bottom of the table has been talked about before. But looking at it from above, the impression is reinforced: a lot can still happen there. Nice. Exciting.
3) The title question
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation, which is based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations (also given in the text below) and the final table is used to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4975 99.50% 1
2 Bayer Leverkusen 21 0.42% 238
3 Hannover 96 3 0.06% 1666.67
4 FC Bayern Munich 1 0.02% 5000
5000 100.00%
Almost without words. If, then only that Bayern only managed to win one more title in 5000 simulations. One can say quite well: “The stove has gone.” Or something like that…
Changes in chances compared to the previous week due to the results of matchday 25
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championships in percent
Bayer Leverkusen 5 0.10%
Hannover 96 3 0.06%
FC Bayern Munich -3 -0.06%
Borussia Dortmund -5 -0.10%
0 0.00%
Dortmund’s loss is astonishing. After all, they won? Explainable only like this: they won in an easy game, while Hannover, behind them but not yet exorbitantly distant in points, won a very difficult game. Leverkusen also had the tougher opponent and won clearly, Dortmund only narrowly. Since you are in tiny areas, in terms of chances, it only goes via very curious ways. The goal difference can also be one of them.
Otherwise, of course, with very small chances it is always possible that they occur a little too often on 5000 runs or a little too seldom on another. In this respect, the worsening of chances can also be a deception.
4) The title chances in the development
No comment….
5) The direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
The probability distribution for 2nd place after matchday 25
Team Number 2nd place 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
1 Bayer Leverkusen 3412 68.24% 1.47
2 FC Bayern Munich 911 18.22% 5.49
3 Hannover 96 503 10.06% 9.94
4 FSV Mainz 05 128 2.56% 39.06
5 Borussia Dortmund 24 0.48% 208.33
6 1.FC Nürnberg 17 0.34% 294.12
7 Hamburger SV 5 0.10% 1000.00
5000 100.00%
Leberkusen now clear favourites for 2 on the basis of playing strength, although of course Bayern are still thought to have something in them. Hannover as a serious contender, but even Mainz not out of the running yet. Exciting.
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team win/loss absolute win/loss in per cent.
1 Bayer Leverkusen 948 18.96%
2 Hannover 96 224 4.48%
3 FSV Mainz 05 71 1.42%
4 1.FC Nuremberg 11 0.22%
5 Borussia Dortmund 5 0.10%
15 TSG Hoffenheim -1 -0.02%
16 SC Freiburg -10 -0.20%
17 Hamburger SV -31 -0.62%
18 FC Bayern Munich -1217 -24.34%
0 0.00%
Leverkusen with a very big gain, Bayern with an even bigger loss. Sure, a defeat at a rival can hurt extremely. Here it is added that the computer logically sees them as favourites mainly because they have the best team, not because of their points tally. So if they concede there, they lose a lot. Hannover don’t gain that much because Leverkusen also won and they are simply better, their lack of chances coming mainly from Bayern’s strength, which is now very reduced.
6) The relegation question
The distribution of relegation percentages
Note: There would also be a detailed breakdown across the individual places. Here, places 17 and 18 count as fully relegated (i.e. in the total as 1, for relegated, otherwise the term is “direct relegation”), and a further third of relegated teams are added by the relegation, whereby the Bundesliga team is generally rated as 2/3 to 1/3 favourite. This makes the total number of relegated teams equal to 233.33%. In individual cases, of course, it would be different in reality. So if, for example, Hertha entered in 3rd place and St. Pauli in 16th, one could perhaps speak of a balanced pairing.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 80.22% 2.91% 83.13%
2 1.FC Kaiserslautern 32.64% 6.13% 38.77%
3 FC St. Pauli 24.50% 5.37% 29.87%
4 Eintracht Frankfurt 19.36% 5.99% 25.35%
5 VfB Stuttgart 17.56% 3.97% 21.53%
6 VfL Wolfsburg 12.16% 3.71% 15.87%
7 1.FC Köln 6.34% 2.61% 8.95%
8 Werder Bremen 6.40% 2.07% 8.47%
9 FC Schalke 04 0.60% 0.41% 1.01%
10 TSG Hoffenheim 0.22% 0.15% 0.37%
11 Hamburger SV 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
12 SC Freiburg 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
As you can see, a number of contenders. A total of 12 teams are still in the running, which shows how close things are. The percentages are also within realisable orders of magnitude and close to each other, which was basically identified as a perceived element of tension. Second favourite now Kaiserslautern, who have crept up almost imperceptibly. Their performances were not worse, if, then more unfortunate in the result.
The change in chances from the 24th to the 25th matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances
1 VfB Stuttgart -15.23%
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach -8.53%
3 Werder Bremen -8.18%
10 Hamburger SV 0.01%
11 SC Freiburg 0.01%
12 TSG Hoffenheim 0.19%
13 FC Schalke 04 0.43%
14 1.FC Cologne 2.59%
15 Eintracht Frankfurt 2.77%
16 1.FC Kaiserslautern 5.61%
17 VfL Wolfsburg 6.47%
18 FC St. Pauli 13.85%
0.00%
Of course Stuttgart with a huge boost due to the win against Schalke, which promised them a tough match. They also have the playing strength as a bonus, so wins do them extra good. Gladbach of course with a jump too, as well as Werder, who won both important games. Big loser, of course, St. Pauli. The 0:5 costs points, goals (which can also count) and also match strength, as the computer takes the amount of the result (justifiably!) into account.
It’s clear that a 0:3 doesn’t do Wolfsburg any good. But Lautern’s relegation is astonishing, after all they got a point in Frankfurt? Well, the competition won and they were already behind. That makes sense, too.
7) The relegation question in the development
Here you might pay attention to the jagged movements, which show you what you can feel: it’s exciting, no one wants to give in, everyone is working to fight their way up, but must always reckon with setbacks. “The rest”, of course, are on a massive upswing, including such prominent (and once not considered competitors) names as Wolfsburg and Frankfurt.
8) The points expectations and the deviations
Explanation: for each match the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per match according to the formula probability of winning * 3 points + probability of drawing * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with those that have occurred, but an imbalance is forced by the three-point rule. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 Hannover 96 29.47 47 17.53 17.53
2 Borussia Dortmund 45.40 61 15.60 15.60
3 1.FC Nürnberg 28.48 39 10.52 10.52
4 FSV Mainz 05 33.38 43 9.62 9.62
5 Bayer Leverkusen 42.85 49 6.15 6.15
6 SC Freiburg 31.71 37 5.29 5.29
7 1.FC Köln 26.46 29 2.54 2.54
8 FC St. Pauli 25.81 28 2.19 2.19
9 Hamburger SV 39.07 37 -2.07 2.07
10 1.FC Kaiserslautern 27.66 25 -2.66 2.66
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 31.01 28 -3.01 3.01
12 TSG Hoffenheim 37.38 33 -4.38 4.38
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach 26.87 22 -4.87 4.87
14 FC Bayern Munich 48.23 42 -6.23 6.23
15 Werder Bremen 36.72 28 -8.72 8.72
16 FC Schalke 04 39.04 30 -9.04 9.04
17 VfL Wolfsburg 36.18 26 -10.18 10.18
18 VfB Stuttgart 36.20 25 -11.20 11.20
7.09 131.82
ø Deviation 7.32Hannover impressively defend their top position. 17.5 points above expectation is gigantic. Of course, as explained earlier, they are working diligently to the point that one tends to call it “deserved”. At the beginning of the season, however, it should be fondly remembered, there were some games that could easily, if not more easily, have gone the other way.
Dortmund, of course, remains a surprise at these heights, but hardly any points are added, as they have long been expected to win. Nuremberg have also joined the ranks. Stuttgart, Wolfsburg, Schalke and Werder, already described as “problem children” in the first text, are still at the bottom. If you look, all four should be well ahead of Hannover according to computer opinion (column “expected points”).
Liga 1 ø Deviation Change from previous week
Germany 7.32 0.33
Italy 5.04 0.10
Spain 3.88 -0.08
France 3.63 0.06
England 2.36 -0.48
Germany remains at the top of the international rankings in terms of the number of surprises. A correction does not seem to be on the cards. This is also true for other countries, even if this week due to the “correction” an England somewhat less so. So is there a larger trend emerging? We will have to wait and see…
9) Goal expectations and their deviations
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. However, the goal average may show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Dortmund 44.70 53 27.34 14 21.65
2 1.FC Nürnberg 30.79 39 40.38 32 16.59
3 Hannover 96 32.11 37 40.11 32 13.01
4 FSV Mainz 05 34.89 41 36.78 32 10.90
5 Bayer Leverkusen 44.84 53 31.59 34 5.75
6 SC Freiburg 33.66 32 38.18 34 2.52
7 1.FC Kaiserslautern 30.94 33 42.02 42 2.08
8 1.FC Köln 30.07 31 43.31 43 1.24
9 TSG Hoffenheim 39.64 41 35.01 37 -0.63
10 FC St. Pauli 28.45 27 42.17 43 -2.29
11 FC Bayern Munich 46.41 51 24.73 33 -3.68
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 32.53 24 37.69 34 -4.84
13 Hamburger SV 39.76 37 32.59 36 -6.17
14 VfB Stuttgart 39.76 43 37.31 47 -6.45
15 FC Schalke 04 39.07 29 31.78 30 -8.29
16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 33.71 37 46.79 59 -8.92
17 VfL Wolfsburg 37.46 29 34.59 37 -10.87
18 Werder Bremen 39.77 33 36.17 51 -21.60
658.56 670 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 8.19
2.93 2.98 Here, too, Hannover is fighting its way more and more into the plus. Dortmund, however, are ahead here due to their also outstanding goal ratio, for which a further boost was missed by a chance ratio of 12:1 against Cologne, according to Kicker, which only resulted in a 1:0. That will probably bother them a little less…
Werder remain at the bottom of the league with 51 goals conceded, which puts them in the shade. If you look at Bayern – as promised above – you see that after this 1:3 they still only lack 3.68 goals to be in the expectation. And from this you can see that a Krien talk is completely misguided and, as always, launched by the media. It is so easy to find a photo like the one on the cover of the Kicker, in which van Gaal can be seen with his head bowed (it could also be one from the first leg in Milan, which was victorious and represented an incredible success for German football that has apparently already been forgotten: the current Champions League winners, who by the way are also on the rise again in Italy, were beaten in an away game without it being possible to call it undeserved! ) and borders on pure opinion-making, which has no basis whatsoever.
Again, for this statistic, the foreign comparison:
Place Country League 1 ø Goal difference Change from previous week.
1 Germany 8.19 0.58
2 Italy 5.81 0.17
3 Spain 4.74 -0.49
4 England 5.09 -0.15
5 France 4.83 0.25
Here, too, Germany remains clearly ahead. A correction only in Spain and England, a clear increase in the deviation again in Germany, which of course could be confirmed emotionally (“What?? Bavaria loses in Hanover???”). The lead in this tension category is gigantic. It would only be dangerous if one day we had to say: “Football? It’s like throwing dice – only without chess pieces.” No, it would be a pity if nothing at all could be predicted and everyone could actually beat everyone.
This realisation alone from the pure match decisions possible through referee whistles would be most unpleasant. That’s not how it should be either, please. An exciting, fair competition in which one can always be curious about the surprises, but in which playing strengths can still be represented and these can also prevail, in the long run. If it were always the case that everyone could come first and everyone could come last at the same time, then it would seemingly remain exciting because you never know who will win, but you would also no longer know which result should surprise you – so this moment would disappear.
10) The strength of play ranking
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.84 0.84 2.19 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.12 1.18 1.80 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.94 1.28 1.52 +0
4 FC Schalke 04 1.31 1.14 1.15 +1
5 Hamburger SV 1.53 1.37 1.12 -1
6 1.FC Nürnberg 1.49 1.35 1.10 +0
7 Hannover 96 1.40 1.36 1.03 +2
8 FSV Mainz 05 1.48 1.44 1.03 +0
9 TSG Hoffenheim 1.46 1.51 0.97 -2
10 Werder Bremen 1.51 1.60 0.94 +3
11 VfB Stuttgart 1.54 1.70 0.91 +1
12 SC Freiburg 1.26 1.41 0.89 -2
13 VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 1.44 0.85 -2
14 1.FC Köln 1.30 1.58 0.82 +0
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.21 1.68 0.72 +0
16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 1.98 0.69 +2
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.97 1.48 0.66 +0
18 FC St. Pauli 1.11 1.72 0.65 -2
26.065 26.06 +0
Goals ø expected
2.896 At the top, Schalke has moved past the even less successful Hamburger (which of course seems nonsensical), then Hannover makes another leap at the expense of Hoffenheimt (this on the other hand understandable), Werder really pushes ahead at the expense of Freiburg and Wolfsburg, with Stuttgart profiting there. At the bottom, Gladbach overtake both Frankfurt and Pauli, who after a 0:5 defeat don’t have to be surprised to be seen as the weakest team again.
11) The frequency of tendency changes
Note: a “change of tendency” is considered to be a goal that equalises a lead or scores a lead. The 1:0 is not counted, because without this goal it would not even begin to have anything to do with tension in the goal sequence. Every now and then, a statistical comparison is made here with other countries. This shows that there are more changes of tendency in Germany than elsewhere, which on the one hand points to perceived tension in the Bundesliga – which is possibly envied abroad – and on the other hand points to possible tactical deficiencies, which, following an old tradition, make one advise to urgently go for a second goal after a 1:0 – and not to dull and insipidly, as is usual abroad, rock this goal over time. International comparisons provide more information about the effectiveness or weakness of German behaviour.
In terms of actual frequency changes, there were only those in Hamburg and Freiburg. In Freiburg it was the Freiburg equaliser and the renewed Bremen lead, i.e. two in total, while in Hamburg it was the equaliser, the renewed Hamburg lead, again the equaliser and then the Mainz opening goal, i.e. four changes of tendency in total. 2 + 4 = 6, 6/9 = 0.667, which is well below the season average of 0.89 (measured a few weeks ago).
You could also only add the Bayern goal to a certain extent, which of course created tension and is not included in this statistic. However, Hannover soon increased their lead again.
All in all, there was no high level of excitement in this category, which would inevitably be generated by the view expressed above that more goals would generally be good. More goals – more tension. Herewith made measurable. 0.89 changes of tendency per game are too few, even if leading in Europe.
12) The mathematical review of the results of matchday 25
Goal expectation Result
Home Away Total DeviationDortmund FC Köln 2.30 0.65 2.94 1 0 -1.30 -0.65
Stuttgart Schalke 04 1.43 1.39 2.81 1 0 -0.43 -1.39
Frankfurt Kaiserslautern 1.37 1.20 2.57 0 0 -1.37 -1.20
Hannover FC Bayern 1.28 1.74 3.02 3 1 1.72 -0.74
Gladbach Hoffenheim 1.52 1.90 3.41 2 0 0.48 -1.90
Nuremberg St. Pauli 1.80 0.88 2.68 5 0 3.20 -0.88
Leverkusen Wolfsburg 1.92 1.08 3.00 3 0 1.08 -1.08
Freiburg Bremen 1.69 1.09 2.78 1 3 -0.69 1.91
HSV Mainz 1.71 1.17 2.89 2 4 0.29 2.83
15.02 11.08 26.10 18 8 2.98 -3.08
Expected Goal Total Expected Goal Average Scored Goal Average
26.10 2.90 2.9
ø Goal difference 2.57This time the home teams have the advantage, and quite clearly so. Three too many goals scored, three too few conceded. All in all, the goal expectation was almost exactly fulfilled. The biggest surprise in this category was Nuremberg’s 5:0, because it simply produced the highest deviation with 4.08 goals. On the other hand, Hannover against Bayern with only 2.46 goals difference, which even makes Frankfurt against Kaiserslautern seem like a bigger surprise with 2.57 goals. Also HSV – Mainz is still ahead of Bayern (this less surprising) with 3.12 goals.
Note: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher a favourite position, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality in the long term by comparing expected/occurred events.
The determination expected
Pairing 1 X 2
Dortmund FC Cologne 74.66% 16.56% 8.78% 59.25%
Stuttgart Schalke 04 38.21% 25.42% 36.37% 34.29%
Frankfurt Kaiserslautern 40.63% 26.63% 32.73% 34.32%
Hannover FC Bayern 28.18% 23.67% 48.14% 36.72%
Gladbach Hoffenheim 31.00% 22.32% 46.67% 36.38%
Nuremberg St. Pauli 59.16% 22.93% 17.90% 43.47%
Leverkusen Wolfsburg 57.09% 22.12% 20.79% 41.81%
Freiburg Bremen 51.35% 24.22% 24.43% 38.20%
HSV Mainz 50.00% 23.99% 26.01% 37.52%
4.30 2.08 2.62 3.62
Average expected commitment: 40.22%Just a reminder of last week’s figures, which were found in that text. The expected commitment was over 40%, which is rather in the upper range. Could this also be achieved? Well, there were surprises, but also “normal” results.
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2 tendency W-ness arrived event
Dortmund FC Köln 74.66% 16.56% 8.78% 74.66%
Stuttgart Schalke 04 38.21% 25.42% 36.37% 38.21%
Frankfurt Kaiserslautern 40.63% 26.63% 32.73% 26.63%
Hannover FC Bayern 28.18% 23.67% 48.14% 28.18%
Gladbach Hoffenheim 31.00% 22.32% 46.67% 31.00%
Nuremberg St. Pauli 59.16% 22.93% 17.90% 59.16%
Leverkusen Wolfsburg 57.09% 22.12% 20.79% 57.09%
Freiburg Bremen 51.35% 24.22% 24.43% 24.43%
HSV Mainz 50.00% 23.99% 26.01% 26.01%
4.30 2.08 2.62 3.65
Average number of commitments received: 40.60% The reported 40.6% of commitments received are therefore just above expectations, which of course gives the figures a good report card. Nevertheless, a correction is still to be hoped for this season (as the figures for the league statistics below show). If you look at the results on the basis of the percentages, you can see the natural distribution: the most probable event occurred four times, the second most probable four times and the least probable only once. Three of the four most probable events are also the most probable three of the entire match day. In total, this results in an overfulfilment of the expectation.
13) Overall league statistics
Note: such a statistic is regularly produced by the computer. It is generally used for quality control of the individual figures, Each figure has its meaning and is explained in more detail. The goal average is not repeated here. The home advantage is calculated by dividing the goals scored by the home team by half of the total goals. In this way, you can see how many more goals the home teams score than they would score without home advantage. 1,116 is 11.6% more for the home team, 11.6% less for the away team.
1st Football Bundesliga 2010/2011
Statistics of the actual results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals conceded Home advantage
225 102 46 77 374 296 1.116
Statistics of expected results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
225 102.45 53.09 69.45 369.0 289.4 1.121
Statistics of absolute deviations Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -0.45 -7.09 7.55 5 6.6 -0.0045
Percentage deviation statisticsMatches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -0.20% -3.15% 3.36% 2.22% 2.93% 0.00%
Determination expected Determination arrived
39.36% 37.75%
ø Goal difference ø Goal difference expected
1.97 1.91 (Note: There was an error in last week’s statistics in that some numbers were not updated; so the average goal deviation was simply not entered correctly)
The away wins deviate the most, still, but “only” by 3.36%. However, there was also a correction in the goals, so that in some areas one may say that the computer is doing its job quite well after all? Of course, there is still a clear tendency towards surprises, but the 37.75% of the determination that was fulfilled shows that there are still favourites – and that these are also recognised quite well by the computer. Whether anyone could have done better for this season? Comparative figures would be needed for that. Whether the betting market has done it, however, can even possibly be reconstructed. But doubts are certainly warranted.
14) Preview of the 26th matchday
Note: The computer calculates the goal expectations (and the individually maintained home advantage not shown here) according to a specially developed – naturally explainable and highly logical – algorithm. These in turn are offset against the probabilities of occurrence, in the past by simulation, today long since by a function derived from the simulation results). These goal expectancy values have also long since proved to be competitive in goal number betting on the betting market.
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
FC Cologne Hannover 1.41 1.26 2.67
Hoffenheim Dortmund 0.96 1.87 2.83
FC Bayern HSV 2.23 0.99 3.21
Schalke 04 Frankfurt 1.52 0.70 2.22
Wolfsburg Nuremberg 1.35 1.31 2.66
Kaiserslautern Freiburg 1.30 1.21 2.50
Bremen Gladbach 2.32 1.36 3.68
Mainz Leverkusen 1.38 1.61 2.98
St. Pauli Stuttgart 1.57 1.58 3.15
14.03 11.88 25.91
Expected goal total Expected goal average
25.91 2.88 The home teams are seen ahead, which is absolutely normal. The overall goal average is relatively low.
Werder v Gladbach is understandably seen to score the most goals, but the betting market is sure to recognise that. On the other hand, Schalke against Frankfurt and Lautern against Freiburg are extremely low-scoring, with 2.22 and 2.5 goals respectively. There would certainly be bets on the “under” – also on the market… “Under” bets mean that less than 2.5 goals will be scored, i.e. 0, 1 or 2 goals. This then only has to happen…
The determination expects Pairing 1 X 2
FC Köln Hanover 40.41% 25.88% 33.71% 34.39%
Hoffenheim Dortmund 18.90% 22.30% 58.80% 43.12%
FC Bayern HSV 65.46% 19.07% 15.48% 48.88%
Schalke 04 Frankfurt 57.14% 25.82% 17.04% 42.22%
Wolfsburg Nuremberg 38.02% 26.05% 35.94% 34.15%
Kaiserslautern Freiburg 38.62% 26.94% 34.44% 34.03%
Bremen Gladbach 58.78% 19.48% 21.74% 43.07%
Mainz Leverkusen 32.85% 24.20% 42.94% 35.09%
St. Pauli Stuttgart 38.00% 23.63% 38.37% 34.75%
3.88 2.13 2.98 3.50
average expected fixing: 38.86%Given the somewhat lower expected commitment, one may speak of a matchday of somewhat more balanced pairings. One also senses that Wolfsburg – Nuremberg, Cologne against Hanover, Lautern against Freiburg, Mainz against Leverkusen or Pauli against Stuttgart hardly allow a serious forecast (in the sense of the determination). Anything can happen. Let the dice roll and the Schrirs decide the games, right? Well, a little sarcastically perhaps. It’s exciting, it can only be too exciting, in the sense that you can’t foresee anything and it doesn’t become apparent during the game, then the whistle blows – and it’s either 0:1 or 1:1. Okay, I guess we’ll stick to sarcasm?
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
FC Cologne Hannover 2.47 3.86 2.97
Hoffenheim Dortmund 5.29 4.48 1.70
FC Bayern HSV 1.53 5.24 6.46
Schalke 04 Frankfurt 1.75 3.87 5.87
Wolfsburg Nuremberg 2.63 3.84 2.78
Kaiserslautern Freiburg 2.59 3.71 2.90
Bremen Gladbach 1.70 5.13 4.60
Mainz Leverkusen 3.04 4.13 2.33
St. Pauli Stuttgart 2.63 4.23 2.61
The usual service of fair odds. By the way, they can be determined by everyone by calculating the inverse of the probabilities.
15) Evaluation of the 25th Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total Result DeviationMunich 1860 Oberhausen 1.69 0.71 2.41 1 1 -0.69 0.29
Hertha FSV Frankfurt 2.17 0.91 3.08 3 1 0.83 0.09
Osnabrück Greuther Fürth 1.17 1.46 2.63 0 2 -1.17 0.54
Bochum Karlsruhe 2.40 0.92 3.32 1 1 -1.40 0.08
SC Paderborn Cottbus 1.47 1.31 2.78 0 5 -1.47 3.69
Duisburg Bielefeld 2.44 0.54 2.99 1 2 -1.44 1.46
Erzgebirge Aue Union 1.24 0.88 2.12 0 0 -1.24 -0.88
Ingolstad Aachen 1.37 1.54 2.90 2 1 0.63 -0.54
Augsburg Düsseldorf 1.67 0.76 2.43 5 2 3.33 1.24
15.62 9.03 24.65 13 15 -2.62 5.97
Expected goal total Expected goal total: Goal total: Goal total
24.65 2.74 28 3.111 ø Goal difference: 2.33
High results, many surprises, that’s more or less the summary. In figures, the goal average of 3.111 was significantly higher than the expected 2.74, while the average goal difference of 2.33 is also quite high, far above the long-term average of around 1.83. But when looking at the results, there are also enough outliers to explain this. Especially the Augsburg vs. Düsseldorf match on Monday evening, which, by the way, was of course great and exciting, due to the many goals and the changing leads (thus advertising the above theory; more of that and people will be glued to the TV again, dear gentlemen of FIDE and/or DFB, no question).
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Oberhausen 61.10% 23.48% 15.42% 45.22%
Hertha FSV Frankfurt 66.26% 19.13% 14.61% 49.70%
Osnabrück Greuther Fürth 30.31% 25.49% 44.20% 35.22%
Bochum Karlsruhe 70.26% 17.14% 12.60% 53.89%
SC Paderborn Cottbus 41.18% 24.88% 33.94% 34.67%
Duisburg Bielefeld 79.44% 14.24% 6.32% 65.53%
Erzgebirge Aue Union 44.81% 28.84% 26.35% 35.34%
Ingolstad Aachen 34.05% 24.30% 41.65% 34.85%
Augsburg Düsseldorf 59.27% 23.89% 16.84% 43.67%
4.87 2.01 2.12 3.98
average expected determination: 44.23 It was a clear favourite matchday in the preview. The reality is probably a bit different?!
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Oberhausen 61.10% 23.48% 15.42% 23.48%
Hertha FSV Frankfurt 66.26% 19.13% 14.61% 66.26%
Osnabrück Greuther Fürth 30.31% 25.49% 44.20% 44.20%
Bochum Karlsruhe 70.26% 17.14% 12.60% 17.14%
SC Paderborn Cottbus 41.18% 24.88% 33.94% 33.94%
Duisburg Bielefeld 79.44% 14.24% 6.32% 6.32%
Erzgebirge Aue Union 44.81% 28.84% 26.35% 28.84%
Ingolstad Aachen 34.05% 24.30% 41.65% 34.05%
Augsburg Düsseldorf 59.27% 23.89% 16.84% 59.27%
4.87 2.01 2.12 3.14
Average commitment achieved: 34.83% With an achieved determination of 34.83%, one could almost have saved oneself all the forecasting again. “I don’t know how it will turn out” would have produced a reliable 33.33% – though it could also have been expected.
Now, when you look at the results, the favourites have fallen out of the running. Bielefeld is as good as relegated and wins in Duisburg. Unbelievable, although the author argues in favour of registering the size of probabilities and a good 6% can happen from time to time? But the draw by Munich 60 or Bochum against Karlsruhe also came as something of a surprise, even if we are talking about relegation candidates who are often particularly successful towards the end of the season (while Munich 60, for example, no longer has any serious promotion ambitions).
16) Preview of the 26th Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
Karlsruhe Duisburg 1.23 1.42 2.65
Oberhausen Erzgebirge Aue 1.12 1.09 2.21
FSV Frankfurt Ingolstad 1.63 1.16 2.79
Union Augsburg 0.95 1.38 2.33
Düsseldorf SC Paderborn 1.76 0.73 2.49
Bielefeld Munich 1860 0.87 1.51 2.38
Cottbus Osnabrück 2.50 1.10 3.59
Aachen Bochum 1.37 1.50 2.87
Greuther Fürth Hertha 1.21 1.16 2.37
12.64 11.05 23.69
Expected goal total Expected goal average
23.69 2.63 This time, however, a low-scoring matchday is expected, which may be partly due to the special constellations in the pairings. The home teams are also only just ahead, as some top favourites have to play away, including 1 and 2, Hertha and Augsburg (something also with cause for the lower goal total).
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Karlsruhe Duisburg 32.66% 25.69% 41.65% 34.61%
Oberhausen Erzgebirge Aue 36.39% 28.80% 34.81% 33.65%
FSV Frankfurt Ingolstad 48.46% 24.37% 27.16% 36.81%
Union Augsburg 26.00% 27.12% 46.88% 36.09%
Düsseldorf SC Paderborn 62.17% 22.76% 15.07% 46.10%
Bielefeld Munich 1860 21.61% 25.87% 52.52% 38.94%
Cottbus Osnabrück 67.94% 17.24% 14.81% 51.33%
Aachen Bochum 34.88% 24.65% 40.47% 34.62%
Greuther Fürth Hertha 37.24% 27.58% 35.18% 33.85%
3.67 2.24 3.09 3.46
Average expected commitment: 38.45% Semi-normal laying, although the favourites face a higher hurdle away from home, of course.
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Karlsruhe Duisburg 3.06 3.89 2.40
Oberhausen Erzgebirge Aue 2.75 3.47 2.87
FSV Frankfurt Ingolstad 2.06 4.10 3.68
Union Augsburg 3.85 3.69 2.13
Düsseldorf SC Paderborn 1.61 4.39 6.63
Bielefeld Munich 1860 4.63 3.86 1.90
Cottbus Osnabrück 1.47 5.80 6.75
Aachen Bochum 2.87 4.06 2.47
Greuther Fürth Hertha 2.69 3.63 2.84
Just the service of fair odds for this league too, and we can again point to the excitement to come next weekend….
Hopefully a little increased by such texts, which may show one a noteworthy aspect that one had not previously had on the radar.
