The betting recommendations
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Here are the “fair odds” calculated by the computer. These are calculated exactly to 100% respectively they are the reciprocals of the calculated odds on 1 – X – 2.
Pairing 1 X 2 % Average
Goal expectation 1.61
These are the figures compared with the betting market. These are always based on Monday’s figures from the betting exchange betfair.
Here are the displayed bets for the 28th matchday. A bet is always “displayed” – from the computer’s point of view – if the odds to be achieved on the market are above the fair odds.
For this weekend, almost all bets seem to have been made up out of thin air. There are no real bargains, but you have to look for them for a long time anyway. There are no guarantees of success at any point, even if one is very convinced of the quality of individual bets from time to time.
Short comment on the betting recommendations
This time, different colour markings were deliberately used. It is in fact the case that the yellow bets are simply not to be evaluated, but nevertheless a little argument is to be made for them. The reason is quite clear: with “flat betting”, with one unit per bet, it would be undesirable to evaluate games that have a completely different character. With weighted betting – it will be here from next season – one would simply note one unit per bet and evaluate it conscientiously, of course. Here, it’s not to spoil the balance, although in every game there would be at least one good reason to play it after all.
First of all, Leverkusen can be recommended quite well despite the small advantage. Hannover is a bit out of puff and although Leverkusen is already almost safe in the Euroleague, they should definitely try everything at home to say goodbye with the fans for what they see as a rather messed up season. The advantage is small, so also only a 2/10.
Gladbach can also be recommended, on this bet the advantage is much bigger. Like all home teams, they are playing their last home game and in this one they certainly don’t want to spoil their good impression of the season. There is also something at stake, because if you trust the market – which recommends a bet on Schalke, suggesting that they won’t necessarily win and don’t want to – it could be third place. Conversely, if Schalke win, Augsburg’s worries would be considerably less at the same time, as Hertha would no longer be a competitor for relegation (although Hertha’s goal difference is 10 goals worse, it would be surmountable, with two wins compared to two Augsburg defeats). So, game of the week, at 6/10.
Wolfsburg against Werder is also only a small advantage, yet it can be recommended to trust the computer here. Werder haven’t had any good games, for quite some time, Wolfsburg on the other hand have. The teams are only one point apart, so there is at least a battle for position, at the same time it suggests that Wolfsburg’s season, as bad as it has been, is hardly worse compared to Werder’s, so nothing separates the teams either. A rate of over 2.0 is always interesting. So: 3/10, because of the small advantage.
It was quite clear that Dortmund was indicated. The decision has been made, the market assumes a reduced commitment. That in itself is clear and it would also be understandable if Lautern would prefer to reconcile the home crowd, in what is surely summer weather. On the other hand, it’s also about quality and for Lautern it’s about nothing at all (apart from the above-mentioned). So even if the B eleven were to play, they still want to play a good game. Nobody wants injuries, so they play fair and just play football. Dortmund can soon make a monument for themselves with more victories and set their sights on new records. So why give up? No, virtually recommended, not used for the evaluation.
A very special match between Hertha and Schalke. Actually, the market reaction is incomprehensible, because a) there is something very urgent at stake for Schalke and b) there is an intimate enmity between the two teams. And Hertha have really not impressed in recent games. Why don’t people trust Schalke to win? Just because Hertha is up to its neck? No, as with Dortmund: you can actually recommend it, but you don’t want to evaluate it.
With Bayern against Stuttgart, perhaps the counter-arguments outweigh the pros. Wednesday hasn’t been played yet, but Bayern still have something to look forward to (maybe two games). Whether players are replaced or not, they won’t all be pushed to the limit. On the other hand, this also applies to Stuttgart, who are safely in the Euroleague and want to end the season with as nice a game as possible at Bayern. No, the farewell factor still counts for Bayern too, only the derby tendency again somewhat against it. Well, as mentioned: you can’t really justify the doubt, nor what the market means by it, but the bet is just as recommended as the two before, but we don’t evaluate it.
Mainz in Hamburg is really only something for enthusiasts. HSV probably need something, probably a point, and Mainz are out of everything. Still, the interim standings could ensure that HSV is safe and Mainz should not be accused of weakness of character under any circumstances. Well, all said so far, the bet will not be settled, but you can do it.