The betting recommendations
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Here are the “fair odds” calculated by the computer. These are calculated exactly to 100% respectively they are the reciprocals of the calculated odds on 1 – X – 2.
Pairing 1 X 2 % Average
Goal expectation 2.21
These are the figures compared with the betting market. These are always based on Monday’s figures from the betting exchange betfair.
Here are the displayed bets for the 28th matchday. A bet is always “displayed” – from the computer’s point of view – if the odds to be achieved on the market are above the fair odds.
For this weekend, almost all bets seem to have been made up out of thin air. There are no real bargains, but you have to look for them for a long time anyway. There are no guarantees of success at any point, even if one is very convinced of the quality of individual bets from time to time.
Short commentary on the betting recommendations
In the case of the Dortmund vs. Stuttgart pairing, it is of course impossible to recommend betting on an away win without some pain. Chances in the order of less than 10% are not only much more difficult to assess – after all, they come so rarely that you couldn’t expect them in individual cases anyway — but also difficult to talk up. After all, the question “Will Stuttgart win in Dortmund?” would only have one answer: “Probably not”. Nevertheless, it is mathematics (and by no means “higher) that such bets can pay off in the long run. Stuttgart, at any rate, have definitely shown quality in recent games and scored goals in series – although the performance against Nuremberg recently was not exactly an application letter. Dortmund is also on a very positive run, which one can only say will come to an end one day. Whether just on Saturday? In any case, not a bit more than one out of 10 possible units.
The situation is not much different with the recommendation on Nuremberg, even if here the chance of 10% is supposedly already quite clearly exceeded (by the computer). The way Nuremberg played – also and especially against Stuttgart – one should trust them with something. On the other hand, Bayern have the least to give away. For Nuremberg, however, there is still the Wednesday match of Bayern – the outcome of which is unknown so far — which could at least take away some strength. Of course, don’t really take this bet seriously either, risk the one unit, firmly calculate the loss – and still keep a little bit of the princely reward in the back of your mind, should it happen after all. 1/10 and not a cent more, rather less.
HSV’s win at Lautern, on the other hand, seems somehow palatable. Of course, Lautern will once again proclaim this as the “ultimate chance” to get closer, but just having to win could give the opponent just as big a chance with an unsettled team. In any case, there is no doubt about the computer assessment, so that one can calmly risk 6/10. HSV has the potential and the (good) chance to decide this match in its favour, as especially in an away match the perceived pressure is somewhat lower and a point would be “something after all”.
Werder against Mainz is, of course, only a recommendation if the lazaretto clears up. Normally, odds of over 2.0 are definitely too high on such a match and the computer takes this into account. In any case, an odds adjustment has NOT been made, so one should consult either Teamnews or Feeling. So here the recommendation (just so there is something to account for) is 1/10.
Leverkusen against Freiburg is just as hard to recommend. Once again, this effect has been demonstrated (for which there is plenty of evidence, not only in Germany): after a clear elimination in the European Cup, it is somewhat difficult not only to overcome the resulting insecurity and doubts about one’s own abilities, but also to return to everyday league life. Leverkusen have lost all their games since the 1:7 against Barca. However, it wasn’t that they were really weak in all games, yet it wasn’t enough in each case. Of course, you can trust them to put in a solid performance, especially as Europe is now completely at stake, but against Freiburg in particular, who have impressed so much recently? No, the feeling is rather against it, the betting market is right. So only a must-win bet with 2/10.
Schalke’s win in Hoffenheim would be the best bet from a feeling point of view, if not for … the advantage would be so small. Schalke have really impressed in almost all the games we’ve seen recently and are almost as much fun to watch as Dortmund. Hoffenheim’s win was a) a deceptive result and b) it catapulted them so far from the relegation places that a flagging commitment would be possible. On the other hand, Schalker’s Thursday performance in Europe argues against the bet. Well then, so only a 3/10 here too.
All in all, all bets are not that great from a feeling point of view.