The betting recommendations
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
|FC Köln||FC Bayern||5.87||4.66||1.63|
Here are the “fair odds” calculated by the computer. These are calculated exactly to 100% respectively they are the reciprocals of the calculated odds on 1 – X – 2.
Pairing 1 X 2 % Average
|FC Köln||FC Bayern||4.60||4.10||1.75||103.27%|
Goal expectation 0.54
These are the figures compared with the betting market. These are always based on Monday’s figures from the betting exchange betfair.
Here are the displayed bets for the 28th matchday. A bet is always “displayed” – from the computer’s point of view – if the odds to be achieved on the market are above the fair odds.
For this weekend, almost all bets seem to have been made up out of thin air. There are no real bargains, but you have to look for them for a long time anyway. There are no guarantees of success at any point, even if one is very convinced of the quality of individual bets from time to time.
Short comment on the betting recommendations
Once again, most bets are only marked in yellow, which means that they are not evaluated. Nevertheless, you can argue for them quite well in some cases, but you don’t want to spoil the season’s balance with them, mainly because you don’t want to get personally annoyed, which always happens when you can’t win at all when you look at a match because those you have bet on don’t want to themselves, whereby the most varied reasons can be given for this, long before the word “manipulation” is bandied about.
As soon as there is the possibility of weighted betting (which has been done here for some time, but without evaluating it), these bets would be ideal for one unit each, because then even the hassle would be eliminated.
Kaiserlautern in Hannover would be a pure odds bet. Surely Lautern will again try to score a goal here or there, and if Hannover don’t manage to counter with just as many or more, they would have won the game. Against that clearly speaks that Hannover MUST keep the concentration high to reach the Euroleague again. On the other hand, one could imagine that the teams from Wolfsburg, Bremen or even Nuremberg will politely ask whether Lautern would not be willing to deliver a fierce fight – for the last Bundesliga match for an indefinite period. Of course this would be the case anyway, but it is still possible that a reminder will help.
Hoffenheim at Hertha is really the most explosive duel of all. Personally, I’ve always been puzzled by the stupid reporter’s question – which, by the way, would be recognisable as stupid even without the prefix “stupid”, simply because it comes from a reporter — whether a disgraced coach would now wish the plague on his former club, because even if he did, he would always have so much decency not to express this wish. He would stress again and again that he wished the boys all the best and that, of course, he always looked anxiously at their results because he personally had a good relationship with his squad and so on. With Babbel and the termination of the contract, however, one could already imagine a somewhat different behaviour and feeling. Hertha had played a brilliant first half of the season and yet Babbel should, no, had to go. Sure, there were a few contradictory statements, but this does not necessarily justify a sacking – which one does not personally have a positive attitude towards anyway. So, the expectation is this: Babbel will adjust his kickers in such a way that they give Hertha the coup de grace. Benevolence is not to be expected from his side.
Of course, Cologne against Bayern is also a highly explosive match, but not to be put on a par with its predecessor. Franz Beckenbauer already quipped on Sky 90 that Cologne would have quite good chances if Heynckes fielded the A eleven. The B eleven had, after all, recently achieved two victories and, what’s more, justified the writer’s encouragement here and now that they would enjoy these appearances and tear themselves apart to get into the first eleven, which is above all about performance. Money is not something one would personally want to bet on (and not even virtually here), yet one can well imagine B playing and winning. Especially since even in Cologne you can count on Hertha not being in the lead at any point, maybe even behind, and therefore no points would be needed.
Augsburg against HSV would actually be a normal game, so it would actually have to be played because of Augsburg’s so excellent performance. Nevertheless, the impression prevails somewhat here that HSV is actually the better team now that it has been secured, and Augsburg is so satisfied with what they have achieved that they will not go all out again, even if they are playing in front of their own crowd. The enthusiasm of the fans is certain for them with every result, that is clear anyway.
Dortmund against Freiburg would also be normal in that respect. However, Freiburg has inspired so much that they simply don’t want to go against it, and the course, after all, gives almost nothing away. On the other hand, Dortmund could make history with the 80 points scored in a win as well as the best second-round record (then perhaps for a long time). Still: not a virtual bet.
Schalke at Werder would also be almost good. Nevertheless: Schalke have secured 3rd place and Werder could still dream a little if Hannover should actually lose. It’s a last matchday, Werder at home, well, the attitude is not so clear on both sides, so better a “pass”.
It’s only Stuttgart where things look a little different: Leverkusen play in Nuremberg, where according to the market and the computer everything is pretty much open. So a win of their own could mean 5th place for Stuttgart. This entitles them directly to the Euroleague group phase, which would be a huge gain in any case. In any case, the attitude will be this: if Leverkusen don’t win, they don’t want to be blamed, so they will give everything for the victory. Wolfsburg, like Werder, may have a small glimmer of hope, but it could be extinguished after just a few minutes and the Hannover lead. In any case, the odds are more than tasty, at over 2.0, which is always worth considering on evenly matched teams. Here it is the game of the week, and one would definitely risk 9/10.