The betting recommendations
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Here are the “fair odds” calculated by the computer. These are calculated exactly to 100% respectively they are the reciprocals of the calculated odds on 1 – X – 2.
Pairing 1 X 2 % Average
Goal expectation 2.68
These are the figures compared with the betting market. These are always based on Monday’s figures from the betting exchange betfair.
Here are the displayed bets for the 28th matchday. A bet is always “displayed” – from the computer’s point of view – if the odds to be achieved on the market are above the fair odds.
For this weekend, almost all bets seem to have been made up out of thin air. There are no real bargains, but you have to look for them for a long time anyway. There are no guarantees of success at any point, even if one is very convinced of the quality of individual bets from time to time.
Short commentary on the betting recommendations
The bet on Hoffenheim is not to be recommended without reservations. The team looked really good in the 1st half against Schalke, that’s for sure. They also certainly have the potential to beat this opponent, just like HSV managed to do on Saturday. Only there’s the small problem: they have a bit too many points now. Without having the slightest inclination to accuse anyone of “weakness of character”, there can be these little motivational problems. Emotionally, you’ve made it, now you can take it easy for a moment. Especially since Kaiserslautern will be deeply disappointed, especially by the denied penalty shortly before the end, but this feeling will prevail in the course of the week: there are still 18 points to be awarded. We can get three on Saturday. Who knows… Still, a brave 5/10.
The bet on Augsburg is like any other this season against Bayern: close your eyes and hope for the small miracle. However, it was very clear on Saturday that Bayern were not as overpowering as the odds made them out to be. They were lucky and that was it. A 24.00 is of course extremely difficult to hit, but Augsburg had already lost rather unluckily in the first leg when Bayern were on an extreme high. 1/10 of course, never more.
Stuttgart v Mainz is only picked so there is something to play for at all. As much as you might support Stuttgart and they did everything they could to make it 13.0. So, it’s not because of Stuttgart that you don’t like the bet, more because Mainz are just good, in every game in the Rückrunde. 2/10, for entertainment.
Gladbach vs Hertha is similar to the games before. In any case, Gladbach played well against Hannover and were by no means the worse team. However, they should hold 4th place anyway and hardly dream of 3. Hertha, on the other hand, are in the ultimate fight for survival. They will do everything they can not to lose the game. Whether the meeting with former coach Favre is an advantage or a disadvantage is difficult to judge. Since the advantage is quite considerable, it’s a 3/10.
Schalke against Hannover can be recommended quite well again, although the course doesn’t sound so tingly. You might doubt the fair odds a bit, but with some good thinking they become understandable. Schalke really played outstanding in parts and acted like a real top team, especially in their own stadium. And Hannover have won almost all the games – without wishing them ill in the slightest or being begrudging — that they have won by narrow and often lucky margins. This is reflected in the goal ratio, which is what the computer is based on. On Thursday, both are in action, so this is no reason to regard the bet as worse. You can easily play 9/10 here, the game of the week, so to speak.
Leverkusen at HSV again cannot be recommended in good conscience. Leverkusen, including Barcelona, have lost six games in a row and some of their performances really didn’t justify the better rating. On the other hand, there is now a new man on the line and Europe is at stake. For HSV, it’s staying in the league that counts even more, in any case. The bet can’t be good, but Leverkusen will of course also be desperate for a sense of achievement. Therefore 2/10.