1) Review of the matches
Results of the 26th matchday
1st FC Cologne – Hannover 96 4:0 (1:0)
TSG Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund 1:0 (0:0)
FC Bayern Munich – Hamburger SV 6:0 (1:0)
FC Schalke 04 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2:1 (1:0)
VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FC Nürnberg 1:2 (1:1)
- FC Kaiserslautern – SC Freiburg 2:1 ( 1:1)
Werder Bremen – Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:1 (1:0)
FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 (0:0)
General assessment:
The things that can stand out: The fact that Hannover can lose so clearly against Cologne, who are in top form, could still be classified as normal, especially as Hannover have pretty much consistently played above expectation and are thus possibly no longer prepared to take that one extra step in some situations that would be possible in other situations. The Champios League is not out of reach, but the goal is probably a little too high.
As clear as the signs may have been. Dortmund is not getting decisively closer to the championship title. With their own defeat in the face of victories by their competitor(s), they are obviously not taking a step forward. Surely they too are now witnessing or falling victim to the phenomenon of always being ready to give everything against the Primus, regardless of the fulfilment of season goals. Hoffenheim seized the opportunity and once again made positive headlines.
The Bayern game and its consequences were curious. Week after week, they were picked on because they were supposedly playing a disaster season (the later figures reveal how far behind any demands you theoretically are). They have more possession and more goal-scoring chances in practically every game, and usually play very well. In view of this, it shouldn’t surprise anyone (including Hamburg) if they hit everything once? It’s always to be expected of them, everyone has to admit that. But when it happens, does a coach have to go? No, pure nonsense. Be that as it may, there are numerous other considerations.
Frankfurt finally scores its first goal of the second half of the season – and loses. But this is not surprising at all. Schalke almost always plays in front of a full house and, despite reaching the DFB Cup final, still has a lot to make up for.
Wolfsburg’s defeat must be surprising, but nothing more. Here again is an example of the lack of effect of a change of coach. It is an emergency measure that can go well or go wrong. Even with the old coach, there would be a chance for a turnaround, or things would stay the same. The pressure is first created by the media, then the pulling of the ripcord is forced by fan reactions (also often enough player reactions using the famous alibi). On the other hand, opponents Nuremberg of course kept their chance to go even higher with a fantastic series and were anything but a walk-over for Wolfsburg.
Kaiserslautern with the last-minute victory against Freiburg, which they deserved after many good performances before, which went unrewarded. Freiburg, comparable to Hannover, are satisfied with what they have achieved and therefore perhaps a little easier to beat.
In view of the explosive nature of Werder’s match against Gladbach, the home team was not expected to have an easy time of it, either. It is almost sensational that here, too, the last minute stood in the way of success.
According to the match report, Leverkusen’s victory in Mainz was rather fortunate. Mainz, as always, put in a lot of effort but were unable to reap the rewards.
Stuttgart, with their third win in a row, were of course the team of the moment. An enormously important one, of course, as their opponents St. Pauli needed the points just as badly. Nevertheless, a little typical. It has already been suggested several times (and not only here) that Stuttgart have the greater potential.
2) The standings
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff
1 Borussia Dortmund 26 19 4 3 61 53 – 15 +38
2 Bayer Leverkusen 26 15 7 4 52 54 – 34 +20
3 Hannover 96 26 15 2 9 47 37 – 36 +1
4 FC Bayern Munich 26 13 6 7 45 57 – 33 +24
5 FSV Mainz 05 26 14 1 11 43 41 – 33 +8
6 1.FC Nürnberg 26 12 6 8 42 41 – 33 +8
7 SC Freiburg 26 11 4 11 37 33 – 36 -3
8 Hamburger SV 26 11 4 11 37 37 – 42 -5
9 TSG Hoffenheim 26 9 8 36 42 – 37 +5
10 FC Schalke 04 26 9 6 11 33 31 – 31 +0
11 1.FC Köln 26 9 5 12 32 35 – 43 -8
12 Werder Bremen 26 7 8 11 29 34 – 52 -18
13 VfB Stuttgart 26 8 4 14 28 45 – 48 -3
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 26 7 7 12 28 35 – 43 -8
15 Eintracht Frankfurt 26 8 4 14 28 25 – 36 -11
16 FC St. Pauli 26 8 4 14 28 28 – 45 -17
17 VfL Wolfsburg 26 6 8 12 26 30 – 39 -9
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 26 6 5 15 23 38 – 60 -22
696 696 0
Total number of games 234
Goals ø 2.97
In fact, both Werder and Stuttgart have moved up significantly, although it doesn’t necessarily feel like a great series for Werder. However, it also remains extremely tight at the bottom of the table, as even 17th place is still within striking distance. At the top, pretty much the usual picture. Sure, you always look at how many points it is (from 1 to 2) and how many games left, as well as how far Bayern is behind 2nd place. Still, as I said, a familiar picture.
3) The title question
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation, which is based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations that are also calculated (also given in the further text) and in each case the final table is considered to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4934 98.68% 1
2 Bayer Leverkusen 59 1.18% 85
3 FC Bayern Munich 7 0.14% 714
5000 100.00%
We shouldn’t call it “rising tension”, but rather “when will they finally close the bag”? Still: it’s under 99% again.
Changes in chances compared to the previous week due to the results of Matchday 26
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championship percentage
Bayer Leverkusen 38 0.76%
FC Bayern Munich 6 0.12%
Hannover 96 -3 -0.06%
Borussia Dortmund -41 -0.82%
0 0.00%
Hannover loses its last chances (or: they are under 1/5000). Leverkusen gains significantly, Bayern also a little. Quite normal, so to speak, given the results. The road for the current outsiders remains quite long.
4) The title chances in development
Almost without words. Even if the line above already scratched 1….
5) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place.
The probability distribution for 2nd place after the 26th matchday
Team Number of 2nd places 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
1 Bayer Leverkusen 3732 74.64% 1.34
2 FC Bayern Munich 1050 21.00% 4.76
3 Hannover 96 113 2.26% 44.25
4 Borussia Dortmund 64 1.28% 78.13
5 FSV Mainz 05 28 0.56% 178.57
6 1.FC Nürnberg 13 0.26% 384.62
5000 100.00%
The favourites are clear and explainable: Bayer with the points, Bayern with the playing strength. The rest with blatant outsider chances. But: Nuremberg shows up. A few weeks ago they were still among the relegation candidates…
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team Win/Loss absolute Win/Loss in per cent.
1 Bayer Leverkusen 320 6.40%
2 FC Bayern Munich 139 2.78%
3 Borussia Dortmund 40 0.80%
15 1.FC Nuremberg -4 -0.08%
16 Hamburger SV -5 -0.10%
17 FSV Mainz 05 -100 -2.00%
18 Hannover 96 -390 -7.80%
0 0.00%
Leverkusen, of course, with the biggest gain. They defended their turf against Bayern and eliminated Hannover without any effort of their own. Logically, Bayern benefits from this and from their own victory. Losers have a hard time, especially when they are outsiders or against rivals with defeats. This is what happened to Hannover and Mainz.
6) The relegation question
The distribution of relegation percentages
Note: There would also be a detailed breakdown across the individual places. Here, places 17 and 18 count as fully relegated (i.e. as 1, for relegated, otherwise the term is “direct relegation”), and a further third of relegated teams are added due to the relegation, whereby the first division team is generally rated as 2/3 to 1/3 favourite compared to the second division team. This makes the total number of relegated teams equal to 233.33%. In individual cases, of course, it would be different in reality. So if, for example, Hertha entered in 3rd place and St. Pauli in 16th, one could perhaps speak of a balanced pairing.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 82.82% 2.79% 85.61%
2 FC St. Pauli 34.46% 6.52% 40.98%
3 Eintracht Frankfurt 28.42% 6.72% 35.14%
4 VfL Wolfsburg 18.84% 4.89% 23.73%
5 1.FC Kaiserslautern 17.72% 4.79% 22.51%
6 VfB Stuttgart 8.48% 3.61% 12.09%
7 Werder Bremen 7.58% 2.93% 10.51%
8 1.FC Cologne 1.38% 0.91% 2.29%
9 FC Schalke 04 0.30% 0.13% 0.43%
10 SC Freiburg 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%
11 TSG Hoffenheim 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%
12 Hamburger SV 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
Gladbach stay ahead because they are behind, right? St Pauli, who were once the top favourites for relegation, now back with very serious ambitions. Frankfurt joins them and Wolfsburg with very decent chances too. In total, 12 teams were still relegated. Certainly amazing at this stage of the season, speaks for balance and guarantees excitement.
The change in chances from the 25th to the 26th matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change of Chances
1 1.FC Kaiserslautern -16.25%
2 VfB Stuttgart -9.44%
3 1.FC Köln -6.65%
4 FC Schalke 04 -0.58%
5 TSG Hoffenheim -0.35%
13 SC Freiburg 0.01%
14 Werder Bremen 2.03%
15 Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.48%
16 VfL Wolfsburg 7.86%
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 9.79%
18 FC St. Pauli 11.11%
0.00%
Since Stuttgart had already done so brilliantly before, they could not add so much (= reduce danger) despite winning at a rival. That’s why Lautern took the cake with their last-minute victory. They were already on 16, so they could win more, even if the opponent was not a contender. Cologne continue to move away from the relegation zone.
St. Pauli with the biggest loss, as the opponent was a contender (the reverse from above does not apply here). Frankfurt with a clear aggravation. Also Wolfsburg, of course, who are getting lower and lower.
7) The relegation question in development
The jagged movements have remained, which is clearly an indication of tension. Unfortunately, the rest (which includes Frankfurt and Wolfsburg) are now making huge inroads. I wonder if this can be reversed? The unfortunately, of course, refers exclusively to the flawed presentation. Apart from that, no direct sides are taken here. Basically, one would feel personally sorry (as the author) for each team. Because: in fact, all of them have shown a sufficient number of great games at Bundesliga level. Without exception, as the memory that has just been invoked reveals.
8) The points expectations and the deviations
Explanation: for each match, the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per game according to the formula probability of winning * 3 points + probability of drawing * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with those that have occurred, but an imbalance is forced by the three-point rule. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute1 Hannover 96 30.74 47 16.26 16.26
2 Borussia Dortmund 47.38 61 13.62 13.62
3 1.FC Nürnberg 29.82 42 12.18 12.18
4 FSV Mainz 05 34.60 43 8.40 8.40
5 Bayer Leverkusen 44.38 52 7.62 7.62
6 1.FC Köln 27.93 32 4.07 4.07
7 SC Freiburg 33.01 37 3.99 3.99
8 FC St. Pauli 27.18 28 0.82 0.82
9 1.FC Kaiserslautern 29.09 28 -1.09 1.09
10 TSG Hoffenheim 38.17 36 -2.17 2.17
11 Hamburger SV 39.72 37 -2.72 2.72
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 31.78 28 -3.78 3.78
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach 27.72 23 -4.72 4.72
14 FC Bayern Munich 50.39 45 -5.39 5.39
15 FC Schalke 04 41.02 33 -8.02 8.02
16 VfB Stuttgart 37.58 28 -9.58 9.58
17 Werder Bremen 38.68 29 -9.68 9.68
18 VfL Wolfsburg 37.58 26 -11.58 11.58
8.23 125.68
ø Deviation 6.98Even emotionally, the swings have become a bit smaller, which can also be seen below in the development of the deviation. It is astonishing that St. Pauli is still in the plus, i.e. according to the computer it was threatening to be even deeper in it, if the expectations were fulfilled. Despite some successes, the four problem children remain at the bottom of the league. And Hanover continues to sit at the top, ahead of Dortmund. Bayern are a good 5 points behind expectations, which may be bad from the point of view of those responsible, but from an objective point of view could already have been compensated for with two turned games – which would have been easily possible in view of the often proven superiority.
The foreign comparison for the average point differential
Note: the theory is that the German Bundesliga is the most exciting of Europe’s top leagues. This finding is rather intuitively derived, but so far “accepted” both in this country and abroad. Of course, the higher goal average is an indication of this, as well as the(perceived) lower predictability when it comes to the title, relegation, but also other issues. Balance is a criterion and possibly the main reason for this.
The measure used here for the deviation in average points expectation provides measurable information about this, but it is probably a “problem” specific to this season (the fan thanks) that the Bundesliga has produced a particularly large number of surprises. This can be seen in figures.
League 1 ø Deviation Change from previous week
Germany 6.98 -0.34
Italy 5.03 -0.01
Spain 3.28 -0.60
France 3.51 -0.12
England 2.33 -0.03
After these values have regularly increased in almost all leagues in the weeks – for example to the astonishment of the author – this week a changed picture. All values have dropped. Honestly, it was hoped for and desired. Because in a way it underlines the correctness of the computer estimates. The fact that a deviation occurs at all is, by the way, self-evident, mathematically assured. In the best case, it could be 0, but only if all teams had fulfilled their expectations exactly, which is out of the question because an expectation has decimal places and these cannot practically occur.
For the German league it means: the teams that were negative played successfully overall and those that were above their expectation did not play successfully on average. For the others it means the same, of course, but it is easy to check in Germany (even considering the previous week’s values!).
9) Goal expectations and their deviations
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. However, the goal average may show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Dortmund 46.57 53 28.30 15 19.73
2 1.FC Nürnberg 32.09 41 41.73 33 17.63
3 FSV Mainz 05 36.26 41 38.39 33 10.13
4 Hannover 96 33.37 37 41.52 36 9.15
5 Bayer Leverkusen 46.45 54 32.97 34 6.52
6 1.FC Köln 31.48 35 44.57 43 5.09
7 1.FC Kaiserslautern 32.24 35 43.23 43 2.99
8 SC Freiburg 34.87 33 39.48 36 1.61
9 TSG Hoffenheim 40.60 42 36.88 37 1.28
10 FC Bayern Munich 48.64 57 25.72 33 1.08
11 FC St. Pauli 30.03 28 43.75 45 -3.28
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 33.23 25 39.21 36 -5.02
13 VfB Stuttgart 41.34 45 38.88 48 -5.46
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 35.08 38 49.11 60 -7.97
15 FC Schalke 04 40.59 31 32.48 31 -8.12
16 Hamburger SV 40.75 37 34.82 42 -10.93
17 VfL Wolfsburg 38.81 30 35.90 39 -11.91
18 Werder Bremen 42.08 34 37.54 52 -22.55
684.47 696 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 8.36
2.93 2.97 The 0:6 means that HSV are almost at the bottom. Schalke even worse than Gladbach, which again highlights the proportionality. Stuttgart only negligibly in the red, Bayern already in the plus (!), certainly thanks to the recent 6:0, nevertheless it shows something. They weren’t that bad. Dortmund are still in the lead, but are now being challenged by Nuremberg. Mainz and Hannover, despite their defeats, are still pretty high up.
Again, the international comparison for this statistic:
Place Country League 1 ø Goal difference Change from previous week
1 Germany 8.36 0.17
2 Italy 5.64 -0.17
3 Spain 4.28 -0.46
4 England 5.03 -0.06
5 France 4.54 -0.29
Almost the same effect here: almost all values have fallen. Except the German one. Now this also becomes explicable. In many cases the results showed the “right” tendency in the sense of a correction of the point deviations. In some cases, however, they were high (4:0, 6:0), which can then result in a violent swing that does not necessarily have to have a positive effect on the overall deviation (and did not do so here). Furthermore, however, one can see that the German 1st league is way ahead. The measure expresses how surprising the results were. This concerns both the amount and the winner itself. So in this sense, Germany is the country with the most action. Exciting yes, whether good shows international comparisons (and, as it just turned out, Bayern failed again to beat Inter Milan).
10) The playing strength ranking
Note: The playing strength is measured in goals expected against the average team (which does not exist in practice). There is the offensive strength, which is measured in expected goals scored, and the defensive strength, which is measured in expected goals conceded. The quotient of these two values is the measure of playing strength. The more expected goals scored, the higher the value; the fewer expected goals conceded, the higher the value.
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Counter Shift
1 Borussia Dortmund 1.77 0.84 2.10 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.20 1.16 1.89 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 1.23 1.56 +0
4 FC Schalke 04 1.33 1.15 1.15 +0
5 1.FC Nürnberg 1.51 1.34 1.13 +1
6 Hamburger SV 1.50 1.46 1.03 -1
7 FSV Mainz 05 1.44 1.41 1.01 +1
8 TSG Hoffenheim 1.45 1.46 1.00 +1
9 Hannover 96 1.38 1.42 0.97 -2
10 Werder Bremen 1.46 1.59 0.92 +0
11 VfB Stuttgart 1.55 1.69 0.92 +0
12 1.FC Köln 1.37 1.56 0.88 +2
13 SC Freiburg 1.26 1.43 0.88 -1
14 VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 1.47 0.84 -1
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.24 1.67 0.74 +0
16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 1.93 0.71 +0
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.98 1.50 0.65 +0
18 FC St. Pauli 1.09 1.74 0.63 +0
26.04 26.04 +0
Goals ø expected
2.893 Certainly arguable, these rankings. Hoffenheim better than Hannover? Schalke better than Nürnberg? HSV better than Mainz? Anything could trigger debate. But the odds resulting from these assessments (based on probabilities, namely in the reciprocal value) can be compared with the market. The problem is hardly likely to be found in computer – betting market deviations. There were also movements. For example, Mainz climbed one place, despite defeat. The reason: Hannover lost 0:4, they only 0:1. Cologne climbs while Wolfsburg (at the beginning of the season on 2!) slips further.
11) The frequency of tendency changes
Note: a “change of tendency” is considered to be a goal that equalises a lead or scores a lead. The 1:0 is not counted, because without this goal it would not even begin to have anything to do with tension in the goal sequence. Every now and then, a statistical comparison is made here with other countries. This shows that there are more changes of tendency in Germany than elsewhere, which on the one hand points to perceived tension in the Bundesliga – which is possibly envied abroad – and on the other hand points to possible tactical deficiencies, which, following an old tradition, make one advise to urgently go for a second goal after a 1:0 – and not to dull and insipidly, as is usual abroad, rock this goal over time. International comparisons provide more information about the effectiveness or weakness of German behaviour.
The changes in tendency on the 26th matchday were as follows: 2 for Schalke against Frankfurt, because Frankfurt managed to equalise in between. In Wolfsburg vs. Nuremberg also 2, because Wolfsburg took the lead, Nuremberg turned the game completely, in Lautern – Freiburg also 2, because Freburg took the lead and Lautern turned it, and in Werder – Gladbach the one, the Gladbach equaliser. That makes a total of 7 changes of tendency in 9 games, 7/9 = 0.778, and this number is below the previous season’s average, which was 0.89 (a few weeks ago). Still, this figure (albeit slightly reduced by the last few match days) is well above the foreign leagues, which tend to hover around 0.7.
Of course, the overall issue remains that less than one change of tendency per game – even if more in Germany than elsewhere – is too little to feel permanent tension. Increasing the number of goals could also raise this part of the tension in a football match in general. This could be achieved, as mentioned last week, by applying existing rules. With regard to offside, the relief for the assistants is fixed in the rules by the “in doubt for the attacker”, but the principle could also be taken to heart in other areas.
Even if this sounds like a changed injustice that should now favour the strikers in the future, no harm would be done even by this, since the spectator benefits from it and what more could it be about than making the one who finances everything happy? The assertion is nevertheless that the rule interpretations are currently all to the disadvantage of the strikers.
This could be verified with the long-suggested experiment of touching away lines, goals and other players during scenes of play, so that only the foul (or hand) scene to be judged is visible. Now officials are supposed to judge these scenes and see what their decision would be. Afterwards, you look at what was decided in the game and compare it to the location of the offence. The result would be quite clear: the forwards would be penalised for harmless interventions, while the defenders would be allowed to do almost anything, especially in the penalty area, and none of it would be penalised. Well, the implementation of the experiment would have to be waited for (and first organised, for this the referees would have to agree), but eyes would be opened quite easily, so the conviction. As soon as one is “conditioned” in this direction in thinking, it becomes very obvious.
12) The mathematical review of the results of the 26th matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total Deviation
FC Köln Hannover 1.41 1.26 2.67 4 0 2.59 -1.26
Hoffenheim Dortmund 0.96 1.87 2.83 1 0 0.04 -1.87
FC Bayern HSV 2.23 0.99 3.21 6 0 3.77 -0.99
Schalke 04 Frankfurt 1.52 0.70 2.22 2 1 0.48 0.30
Wolfsburg Nürnberg 1.35 1.31 2.66 1 2 -0.35 0.69
Kaiserslautern Freiburg 1.30 1.21 2.50 2 1 0.70 -0.21
Bremen Gladbach 2.32 1.36 3.68 1 1 -1.32 -0.36
Mainz Leverkusen 1.38 1.61 2.98 0 1 -1.38 -0.61
St. Pauli Stuttgart 1.57 1.58 3.15 1 2 -0.57 0.42
14.03 11.88 25.91 18 8 3.97 -3.88
Expected goal total Expected goal average Scored goal average
25.91 2.88 2.889 ø Goal difference expected 1.91 ø Goal difference arrived 1.99
Home teams clearly up, at least in terms of goals. 4 too many scored, almost 4 too few conceded. This means that the average number of goals scored is almost exactly as expected. Nevertheless, the average goal difference is above the expected one. This is a consequence of the partly high victories (4:0 and 6:0), which provoke a high deviation.
The determination
Note: The determination is calculated for each match as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher the favourite position, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the (favourite) event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality of the estimates made here in the long term by comparing expected/occurred. This is done week by week, but of course also overall.
The determination expected
Pairing 1 X 2
FC Köln Hannover 40.41% 25.88% 33.71% 34.39%
Hoffenheim Dortmund 18.90% 22.30% 58.80% 43.12%
FC Bayern HSV 65.46% 19.07% 15.48% 48.88%
Schalke 04 Frankfurt 57.14% 25.82% 17.04% 42.22%
Wolfsburg Nuremberg 38.02% 26.05% 35.94% 34.15%
Kaiserslautern Freiburg 38.62% 26.94% 34.44% 34.03%
Bremen Gladbach 58.78% 19.48% 21.74% 43.07%
Mainz Leverkusen 32.85% 24.20% 42.94% 35.09%
St. Pauli Stuttgart 38.00% 23.63% 38.37% 34.75%
3.88 2.13 2.98 3.50
Average expected commitment: 38.86%
The determination arrived Pairing 1 X 2
FC Köln Hannover 40.41% 25.88% 33.71% 40.41%
Hoffenheim Dortmund 18.90% 22.30% 58.80% 18.90%
FC Bayern HSV 65.46% 19.07% 15.48% 65.46%
Schalke 04 Frankfurt 57.14% 25.82% 17.04% 57.14%
Wolfsburg Nuremberg 38.02% 26.05% 35.94% 35.94%
Kaiserslautern Freiburg 38.62% 26.94% 34.44% 38.62%
Bremen Gladbach 58.78% 19.48% 21.74% 19.48%
Mainz Leverkusen 32.85% 24.20% 42.94% 42.94%
St. Pauli Stuttgart 38.00% 23.63% 38.37% 38.37%
3.88 2.13 2.98 3.57
average arrived determination: 39.69%As you can see, the average number of correct bets has (just) exceeded the expectation. One would have to make the statement for this matchday: there was a very healthy, normal distribution of underdog and favourite events that occurred. If, just too many favourites have prevailed.
The surprises are the Hoffenheim victory and the Bremen draw. One would now have to listen to all the regulars’ tables in Germany and note down what they consider to be the surprises.
Intuitively surprising is the Nuremberg win in Wolfsburg, but the computer had it just behind the Wolfsburg win. Still, one might have the feeling, this game Wolfsburg must(did) win, this game Wolfsburg will win. Fortunately, there are results like that all the time in this country that make you sit up and take notice. At the regulars’ table you will probably hear this tenor: “Litti can’t do it. He was great as a player. Not (yet) as a coach.”
13) Overall league statistics
Note: statistics of this kind are regularly compiled by computer. It is generally used for quality control of the individual figures. Each figure has its meaning and is explained in more detail. The goal average is not repeated here. The home advantage is calculated by dividing the goals scored by the home team by half of the total goals. In this way, you can see how many more goals the home teams score than they would score without home advantage. 1,116 is 11.6% more for the home team, 11.6% less for the away team.
1st Football Bundesliga 2010/2011
Statistics of the actual results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals conceded Home advantage
234 107 47 80 392 304 1.126
Statistics of expected results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
234 106.33 55.22 72.44 383.1 301.3 1.120
Statistics of absolute differences Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 0.67 -8.22 7.56 8.9 2.7 0.00692
Percentage deviation statisticsMatches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 0.63% -17.49% 9.45% 2.27% 0.89% 0.61%
Determination expected Determination arrived
39.34% 37.83%
ø Goal difference ø Goal difference expected
1.97 1.91 The deviations in these values turn out to be quite moderate. The perceived surprises (which can also be seen here in the comparison “expected vs. actual” across all matches of the season) are, so to speak, evenly distributed between home and away teams.
The biggest deviation here is in the draws, which were quite clearly missed. 55 expected and only 47 arrived. However, the computer reacts to this independently and regularly adjusts the draw probability. So if too few continued to come, it would gradually expect this lower number. In the long run, however, it has turned out that one should not react so quickly. The 8 too few draws could come back quite soon. If not, the fan would thank you and the computer would work it in.
By the way, here’s the remark: there are still more draws abroad. On the one hand, this is certainly due to the lower goal average there, which of course makes a draw more likely, but it can also be attributed to the German fighting spirit, which also has a positive effect on the perceived tension.
14) Preview of the 27th matchday
Note: The computer uses a specially developed algorithm – which can of course be explained and is highly logical – to calculate the goal expectations (and the individually maintained home advantage not shown here) for these goal expectations. These in turn are offset against the probabilities of occurrence, in the past by simulation, today long since by a function derived from the simulation results). These goal expectancy values have also long since proved to be competitive in goal number betting on the betting market.
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
Gladbach Kaiserslautern 1.79 1.47 3.26
Freiburg FC Bayern 1.15 1.91 3.06
Nuremberg Bremen 1.92 1.15 3.07
Frankfurt St. Pauli 1.25 0.97 2.22
Hanover Hoffenheim 1.64 1.21 2.84
HSV FC Cologne 1.83 1.17 3.00
Dortmund Mainz 1.87 0.80 2.67
Leverkusen Schalke 04 1.73 1.01 2.74
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 1.74 1.18 2.92
14.91 10.86 25.77
Expected goal total Expected goal average
25.77 2.86 The expected goal average only at 2.86 goals. But, as seen on matchday 26, it was justified somewhere. The home teams, as usual, were ahead. Dortmund, at first glance, not as high a favourite as one would think (read off the goal difference).
Note: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher a favourite position is, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality in the long term by comparing expected/occurred events.
The determination expected
Pairing 1 X 2
Gladbach Kaiserslautern 45.38% 22.75% 31.86% 35.93%
Freiburg FC Bayern 22.74% 22.12% 55.13% 40.46%
Nuremberg Bremen 55.42% 22.04% 22.54% 40.65%
Frankfurt St. Pauli 42.93% 28.46% 28.62% 34.71%
Hanover Hoffenheim 47.55% 24.25% 28.21% 36.44%
HSV FC Cologne 52.73% 22.81% 24.46% 38.99%
Dortmund Mainz 62.77% 21.77% 15.46% 46.53%
Leverkusen Schalke 04 54.40% 23.61% 21.99% 40.00%
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 50.56% 23.50% 25.94% 37.82%
4.34 2.11 2.54 3.52
Average expected commitment: 39.06%The average expected commitment at a normal value, which suggests that it is a matchday with fairly normal favourites. You can also see this in the last column, where only Dortmund against Mainz is expected to be significantly above 40%. Otherwise just around 40 or below. Normal.
The fair odds
Note: the fair odds are only the inverse of the probabilities. However, this is how the games are offered on the betting market or traded on the betting exchanges (“betfair”). You can gladly compare what the computer guesses. The deviations will not be enormous, but theoretically every bet is a good one (from the computer’s point of view) where the odds paid on the market are above the fair odds.
Pairing 1 X 2
Gladbach Kaiserslautern 2.20 4.39 3.14
Freiburg FC Bayern 4.40 4.52 1.81
Nuremberg Bremen 1.80 4.54 4.44
Frankfurt St. Pauli 2.33 3.51 3.49
Hanover Hoffenheim 2.10 4.12 3.55
HSV FC Cologne 1.90 4.38 4.09
Dortmund Mainz 1.59 4.59 6.47
Leverkusen Schalke 04 1.84 4.24 4.55
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 1.98 4.26 3.85
If you want a general tip: on the betting market the draw odds are traded lower, so you should theoretically bet against the draw. At betfair, such a bet is called a “lay” bet. You pay the rate on the draw and hope that it does not happen.
This recommendation (by the computer) suggests that it reacts more quickly to the draw not happening than the betting market (i.e. mass intelligence) does. The masses, so to speak, do not believe that it is a tendency, but rather that it is a short-term coincidence, that the draws will come again soon (this “belief” is an interpretation, since each individual has his own motivation to place a bet and thus only influences the mass intelligence).
15) Evaluation of the 26th Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total Result Deviation
Karlsruhe Duisburg 1.23 1.42 2.65 3 1 1.77 -0.42
Oberhausen Erzgebirge Aue 1.12 1.09 2.21 1 2 -0.12 0.91
FSV Frankfurt Ingolstad 1.63 1.16 2.79 1 2 -0.63 0.84
Union Augsburg 0.95 1.38 2.33 0 0.95 -1.38
Düsseldorf SC Paderborn 1.76 0.73 2.49 0 0 -1.76 -0.73
Bielefeld Munich 1860 0.87 1.51 2.38 0 3 -0.87 1.49
Cottbus Osnabrück 2.50 1.10 3.59 2 0 -0.50 -1.10
Aachen Bochum 1.37 1.50 2.87 1 3 -0.37 1.50
Greuther Fürth Hertha 1.21 1.16 2.37 0 2 -1.21 0.84
12.64 11.05 23.69 8 13 -4.64 1.95
Expected goal total Expected goal total: Goal total: Goal total
23.69 2.63 21 2.3333 ø expected goal difference: ø arrived goal difference:
1.81 1.45
There were only 21 goals in the 2nd division, well below expectation. The feared tendency, discussed last week about the 2nd league: the referees whistle even more tightly towards the season decisions, even more against possible goals. But the teams’ playing behaviour can also play a part in this. “Just don’t concede a goal” as the top priority.
The average goal deviation is therefore quite low (few goals – low deviation, for the most part; high deviations are only caused by high results).
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Karlsruhe Duisburg 32.66% 25.69% 41.65% 34.61%
Oberhausen Erzgebirge Aue 36.39% 28.80% 34.81% 33.65%
FSV Frankfurt Ingolstad 48.46% 24.37% 27.16% 36.81%
Union Augsburg 26.00% 27.12% 46.88% 36.09%
Düsseldorf SC Paderborn 62.17% 22.76% 15.07% 46.10%
Bielefeld Munich 1860 21.61% 25.87% 52.52% 38.94%
Cottbus Osnabrück 67.94% 17.24% 14.81% 51.33%
Aachen Bochum 34.88% 24.65% 40.47% 34.62%
Greuther Fürth Hertha 37.24% 27.58% 35.18% 33.85%
3.67 2.24 3.09 3.46
Average expected commitment: 38.45%
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2
Karlsruhe Duisburg 32.66% 25.69% 41.65% 32.66%
Oberhausen Erzgebirge Aue 36.39% 28.80% 34.81% 34.81%
FSV Frankfurt Ingolstad 48.46% 24.37% 27.16% 27.16%
Union Augsburg 26.00% 27.12% 46.88% 27.12%
Düsseldorf SC Paderborn 62.17% 22.76% 15.07% 22.76%
Bielefeld Munich 1860 21.61% 25.87% 52.52% 52.52%
Cottbus Osnabrück 67.94% 17.24% 14.81% 67.94%
Aachen Bochum 34.88% 24.65% 40.47% 40.47%
Greuther Fürth Hertha 37.24% 27.58% 35.18% 35.18%
3.67 2.24 3.09 3.41
average commitment received: 37.85% In the 2nd division, the average expected determination (just) undercut. So there were a bit too many surprises. The two draws, Ingolstadt and Karlsruhe make up for it. Still, of course, everything within the bounds.
16) Preview of the 27th Zweitliga matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
Munich 1860 Karlsruhe 1.79 1.04 2.83
Duisburg Düsseldorf 1.58 1.02 2.60
Ingolstad Hertha 1.04 1.73 2.77
Osnabrück Aachen 1.64 1.63 3.26
Augsburg Oberhausen 2.48 0.57 3.05
Erzgebirge Aue Greuther Fürth 0.99 0.99 1.99
Union Bielefeld 1.90 0.63 2.53
SC Paderborn FSV Frankfurt 1.40 1.09 2.48
Bochum Cottbus 1.79 1.20 3.00
14.61 9.90 24.51
Expected goal total Expected goal average
24.51 2.72 As you can see there is one match where very few goals are expected: Aue – Fürth. If you wanted to be active on the betting market, you would have to play an “under” there. “Over” in Osnabrück!
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Karlsruhe 55.00% 23.05% 21.95% 40.38%
Duisburg Düsseldorf 50.46% 24.99% 24.55% 37.73%
Ingolstad Hertha 22.89% 23.59% 53.52% 39.45%
Osnabrück Aachen 38.73% 22.96% 38.32% 34.95%
Augsburg Oberhausen 79.15% 14.22% 6.63% 65.11%
Erzgebirge Aue Greuther Fürth 34.66% 30.67% 34.66% 33.44%
Union Bielefeld 67.86% 20.64% 11.50% 51.63%
SC Paderborn FSV Frankfurt 44.18% 26.45% 29.37% 35.14%
Bochum Cottbus 51.32% 23.01% 25.67% 38.22%
4.44 2.10 2.46 3.76
Average expected determination: 41.78% A matchday with high favourites. Augsburg makes up a lot of that, but also Union with over 50% (sure, Bielefeld is virtually relegated).
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Karlsruhe 1.82 4.34 4.56
Duisburg Düsseldorf 1.98 4.00 4.07
Ingolstad Hertha 4.37 4.24 1.87
Osnabrück Aachen 2.58 4.36 2.61
Augsburg Oberhausen 1.26 7.03 15.09
Erzgebirge Aue Greuther Fürth 2.88 3.26 2.88
Union Bielefeld 1.47 4.85 8.69
SC Paderborn FSV Frankfurt 2.26 3.78 3.40
Bochum Cottbus 1.95 4.35 3.90
The same applies here as for the first league odds. Everyone should compare these figures with the betting market figures for themselves.
What questions should we ask ourselves for the weekend? Can Dortmund pull away decisively? Will Bayern still manage second place? Will Wolfsburg really have to bite the dust or will they still come out on top? Will Gladbach manage a miraculous rescue? What about Frankfurt, who played so many good games in the first half of the season?
One thing is certain: suspense is guaranteed….
