1) Review of the matches
Results of Matchday 24
VfL Wolfsburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach 2:1 (2:0)
1st FC Kaiserslautern – Hamburger SV 1:1 (1:0)
FC Schalke 04 – 1. FC Nürnberg 1:1 (0:1)
FC St. Pauli – Hannover 96 0:1 (0:0)
TSG Hoffenheim – FSV Mainz 05 1:2 (0:1)
- FC Cologne – SC Freiburg 1:0 (0:0)
FC Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund 1:3 (1:2)
Eintracht Frankfurt – VfB Stuttgart 0:2 (0:0)
Werder Bremen – Bayern Leverkusen 2:2 (0:1)
General assessment:
What trend could one now try to read? In principle, once again that the “surprise teams” simply don’t want to be pushed aside. Whereas in earlier years you could have expected teams like Hannover or Nuremberg to take a rest at some point (if that were to satisfy you as a reason for a defeat), they are now showing that they intend to back up their ambitions according to the table.
On the other hand, the traditional teams are not managing to gradually work their way up to more respectable positions in line with their expectations. Of course, the one is connected to the other, because there are always concrete pairings in which this or that turnaround would be possible.
Wolfsburg’s win against Gladbach is a typical one, as the (supposed) heavyweight, which is lurching towards relegation, has to keep the points at home, according to its own self-image, but after the change of coach and Gladbach’s success last week, one would have thought a surprise possible, especially because of the inconsistency on all sides.
In Schalke’s match against Nuremberg, the first trend that emerged can be read. On the other hand, Schalke in particular have the difficult but very important away game in Munich on Wednesday to push their small chance of European competition to gigantic heights with a win there (which, by the way, has actually happened at the time of writing), while league ambitions, neither this way nor that way, are seriously on the agenda at the moment. In this respect, the draw against an in-form Nuremberg is understandable.
In St. Pauli vs. Hannover, two other in-form teams met, both of which are actually “too good” – certainly justified by performances, here it’s about the ratio expected/accomplished — in which one could almost have imagined the home win even better. But Hannover are successfully clinging to the prospect of a huge surprise and may even be furtively flirting with a Champions League spot.
Hoffenheim against Mainz now a pairing in which one could certainly have expected a home win much sooner (in these overviews here, of course, backed up by numbers). However, Hoffenheim’s engine has been sputtering badly since the winter break (the departures?), while Mainz, as announced last week, also underlined in the game against Bayern that they are very much competitive in the upper half of the table. So the sometimes poor results don’t necessarily have anything to do with poor performances. So the victory is much less surprising than it might seem at first glance.
In the case of Cologne against Freiburg, one could of course speak of a relatively “normal” result, since Cologne have been scoring consistently lately and were playing at home. However, this fantastic goal shortly before the end by Lukas Podolski was responsible for it and it could well have been a confirmation of Freiburg’s position in the table. Well, they will certainly be able to cope with it and Cologne are making every effort to end what has been a very (albeit habitually) chaotic season on a decidedly pleasant note.
Bayern against Dortmund now, of course, the cracker of the matchday, if not of the entire season. Bayern had always kept the little flame of hope burning and now had a huge chance to add a few more logs. Dortmund, to stay with the metaphor, did not spit in their soup but in the flame – and it was extinguished. Even if one had to say, with all possible objectivity, that the game was balanced overall, even this realisation would be bad enough for Bayern, since they were competing in their own stadium. In any case, Dortmund clearly underlined that they did not win their position in the table and the gap. From the start, they radiated that self-confidence that few in Munich have exuded. “We can beat them. By our own efforts.” There is no concession or wall tactics required. It is comparable to a real chess champion á la Bobby Fisher, who would play to win even against the reigning world champion with the black pieces. A great game with a lot of race and class, but it must be emphasised again that the referee plays a key role in this or that situation when it comes to match-deciding situations. The penalty against Dortmund was unfortunately so clear (at 1:2) that it can decide everything, given or not. Unfortunately, according to one insight, this is how it is in football (as already discussed elsewhere), at the same time confirming the insight that the decision always and repeatedly goes against the attackers. The “courageous decision” is supposed to be the one that leads to a goal?! So the referee was a coward who simply let it go. He has nothing to fear in this way, it seems, whereas if he had decided on a penalty kick AND that had been recognised as a mistake, his head would have been ripped off. This, of course, was the reason for the (in)whistle, for the (in)decision and, as you can hear, cowardly, but effective, for self-protection. But a change of thinking could easily help here: in case of doubt, for the attackers. More goals, more fun, more excitement, more justice.
Anyone who has followed the match report of Frankfurt against Stuttgart will be able to confirm that although Frankfurt’s slump and goallessness continues, they nevertheless delivered a good performance and that one can very confidently use the word “bad luck”. Of course, this was the pairing of teams that are absolutely and maximally out of form, so you can’t assume a certain expectation, but simply let yourself be surprised – and make smart remarks afterwards. Stuttgart had almost been knocked off the table, but are now back on it, while Frankfurt are sliding even deeper into it and of course their (lack of goals) problem will eventually – according to the usual tenor in the industry, but not entirely wrong – settle in people’s minds. From a purely footballing point of view, they should not be relegated, just as little as Stuttgart, where it is based more on the (assumed) quality of the squad. However, who should be relegated in all fairness? It will hit 2(.333). And all of them have had their moments. Who it will be is hard to predict, except that Gladbach will naturally impose themselves.
For Werder, the pairing against Leverkusen vital for survival and at least they still made up the 0:2, albeit against 10 men. For them, too, the reference to squad quality must not be enough. They have to score. Against a strong Leverkusen, a draw is of course a lifeline.
2) The table situation
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 24 18 4 2 58 52 – 14 +38
2 Bayer Leverkusen 24 13 7 4 46 50 – 34 +16
3 Hannover 96 24 14 2 8 44 34 – 31 +3
4 FC Bayern Munich 24 12 6 6 42 50 – 30 +20
5 FSV Mainz 05 24 13 1 10 40 37 – 30 +7
6 Hamburger SV 24 11 4 9 37 35 – 32 +3
7 SC Freiburg 24 11 4 9 37 31 – 31 +0
8 1.FC Nürnberg 24 10 6 8 36 34 – 32 +2
9 TSG Hoffenheim 24 8 9 7 33 41 – 35 +6
10 FC Schalke 04 24 8 6 10 30 29 – 29 +0
11 1.FC Köln 24 8 5 11 29 31 – 42 -11
12 FC St. Pauli 24 8 4 12 28 27 – 38 -11
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 24 8 3 13 27 24 – 34 -10
14 VfL Wolfsburg 24 6 8 10 26 29 – 34 -5
15 Werder Bremen 24 6 7 11 25 30 – 50 -20
16 1.FC Kaiserslautern 24 6 6 12 24 33 – 42 -9
17 VfB Stuttgart 24 6 4 14 22 42 – 47 -5
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 24 5 4 15 19 35 – 59 -24
644 644 0
Total number of games 216
Goals ø 2.98
Few changes, but this could be surprising. Should an advance of the four problem children really be ruled out? Well, after all, Stuttgart, Wolfsburg, Werder and Schalke have all not lost. The surprise team in 3rd place, Hannover, is not showing any signs of weakness. Mainz are also closer again, even if Bayern are of course far ahead in terms of both goal difference and team strength. At such a late stage, you should expect anything, especially as Bayern still have the Champions League. Köln and Pauli at 11 and 12, two teams that were recently considered the hottest contenders for 16th and 17th place – another testament to the curiosity of this season.
3) The title question
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation, which is based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations (also given in the text below) and the final table is used to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4980 99.60% 1
2 Bayer Leverkusen 16 0.32% 313
3 FC Bayern Munich 4 0.08% 1250
5000 100.00%
There is almost no need for comment. As the winner of such a key duel, virtually all questions are answered. Comparable to a game of chess – in which surrender would always be an option, unlike in football – you would now have to hope for a single-move missed mate on your opponent’s side to turn the game around, but you would only have one rook left against your opponent’s entire army. 99.60% is naturally perceived as “safe” – although only the computer comes up with this figure. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that the counter-chance of 0.4% roughly corresponds to the chance of shaking the main prize out of the cup at the carnival with three sixes rolled in one attempt (this is at 1/216). Never happened before?
Chance changes from the previous week by matchday 24 results.
Team Changes absolute compared to previous week Championship percentage
Borussia Dortmund 179 3.58%
SC Freiburg -1 -0.02%
Hannover 96 -2 -0.04%
Bayer Leverkusen -77 -1.54%
FC Bayern Munich -99 -1.98%
0 0.00%
Here, too, the commentary must be sparse. Dortmund as the lone and resounding winner. If the competition still had any serious chances, they were exclusively based on Bayern’s victory in the key duel. Now they are gone. The size of the gain is not surprising either and picks up an argument from previous weeks, so to speak: the increase to 100% when you are already very close to them often follows quickly and violently.
4) The title chances in the development
Even though one can see the jag upwards, it is of course not directly spectacular. The gap to 100% was too small and is now almost unrecognisable, the rest including Bayern tends towards 0.
5) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
The probability distribution for 2nd place after matchday 24
Team Number 2nd place 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
1 Bayer Leverkusen 2464 49.28% 2.03
2 FC Bayern Munich 2128 42.56% 2.35
3 Hannover 96 279 5.58% 17.92
4 FSV Mainz 05 57 1.14% 87.72
5 Hamburger SV 36 0.72% 138.89
6 Borussia Dortmund 19 0.38% 263.16
7 SC Freiburg 10 0.20% 500.00
8 1.FC Nürnberg 6 0.12% 833.33
9 TSG Hoffenheim 1 0.02% 5000.00
5000 100.00%
A little more excitement in this category. Now Leverkusen in front again, who got a draw away from home, while Bayern lost at home. But Hannover, listen and be amazed, is also still in the mix.
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team Win/loss absolute Win/loss in per cent
1 Bayer Leverkusen 237 4.74%
2 Hannover 96 180 3.60%
3 FSV Mainz 05 43 0.86%
4 Hamburger SV 2 0.04%
13 FC Schalke 04 -1 -0.02%
14 1.FC Nuremberg -2 -0.04%
15 SC Freiburg -4 -0.08%
16 TSG Hoffenheim -5 -0.10%
17 Borussia Dortmund -159 -3.18%
18 FC Bayern Munich -291 -5.82%
0 0.00%
Logically, two winners, with Mainz even three. The big losers Dortmund (to their credit) and Bayern. A drop of 5.82% is already very considerable. It remains feasible, of course. And it would still be rather astonishing if it didn’t succeed, wouldn’t it? Well, don’t forget the Champions League and Leverkusen…
6) The relegation question
The distribution of relegation percentages
Note: There would also be a detailed breakdown across the individual places. Here, places 17 and 18 count as fully relegated (i.e. in total as 1, for relegated, otherwise the term is “direct relegation”), and another third of relegated teams are added due to the relegation, whereby the Bundesliga team is generally rated as 2/3 to 1/3 favourite. This makes the total number of relegated teams equal to 233.33%. In individual cases, of course, it would be different in reality. So if, for example, Hertha entered in 3rd place and St. Pauli in 16th, one could perhaps speak of a balanced pairing.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 89.90% 1.75% 91.65%
2 VfB Stuttgart 30.56% 6.19% 36.75%
3 1.FC Kaiserslautern 27.64% 5.52% 33.16%
4 Eintracht Frankfurt 16.56% 6.02% 22.58%
5 Werder Bremen 12.86% 3.79% 16.65%
6 FC St. Pauli 11.50% 4.51% 16.01%
7 VfL Wolfsburg 6.52% 2.88% 9.40%
8 1.FC Cologne 4.06% 2.29% 6.35%
9 FC Schalke 04 0.26% 0.32% 0.58%
10 TSG Hoffenheim 0.14% 0.05% 0.19%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
Indicator of tension: a balance in the distribution of chances — which corresponds to unpredictability — and constant fluctuations, which logically goes hand in hand with it. Logical because when the odds are well balanced, a single favourable outcome can really push you forward, and an unfavourable one can really pull you in. Everything is represented. At the moment, two of the big contenders are watching with a smile from a certain distance: Cologne and Pauli. Of course, they can’t feel safe for a long time and “one can be curious”. Especially as Pauli in particular showed with their home defeat that a lot can still happen.
The change in chances from the 23rd to the 24th matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances1 VfB Stuttgart -12.68%
2 1.FC Cologne -7.79%
3 VfL Wolfsburg -5.41%
4 FC Schalke 04 -0.11%
5 1.FC Nuremberg -0.03%
6 FSV Mainz 05 -0.01%
7 Hamburger SV -0.01%
8 SC Freiburg -0.01%
14 TSG Hoffenheim 0.12%
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.69%
16 FC St. Pauli 6.21%
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 9.00%
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 9.01%
0.00%
Stuttgart with the huge gain, which is immediately obvious, as they won away at a rival and had already “piled up” plenty of percentages, some of which they were keen to give away again. Cologne are also on the upswing with another three-goal win. The big losers don’t bother to be interpreted either. Gladbach lost at a rival and would only have a fair chance with continued good to very good results and Frankfurt lost at home but also against a rival. The increase was about the same — although Frankfurt’s result was even worse — as Frankfurt’s chances are only gradually moving upwards (to the chagrin of Frankfurt and they certainly hope to be able to counteract again). St. Pauli are also “registering their claims again”.
7) The relegation question in development
There is no need to interpret and interpret too much. Things are moving at all levels. Certainly due to the fact that there are two or more relegations, but also due to the seasonal development, which is anything but regular or predictable. It should come as no surprise that this is also reflected in the graphs. You can see Cologne, for example, with its downward trend (which, however, one likes to see especially in Cologne).
8) The point expectations and the deviations
Explanation: for each game the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per game according to the formula probability of victory * 3 points + probability of draw * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with the expected ones, but the three-point rule forces an imbalance. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute1 Hannover 96 28.39 44 15.61 15.61
2 Borussia Dortmund 42.99 58 15.01 15.01
3 1.FC Nürnberg 26.48 36 9.52 9.52
4 FSV Mainz 05 32.36 40 7.64 7.64
5 SC Freiburg 29.93 37 7.07 7.07
6 Bayer Leverkusen 40.91 46 5.09 5.09
7 1.FC Köln 26.03 29 2.97 2.97
8 FC St. Pauli 25.04 28 2.96 2.96
9 Hamburger SV 37.33 37 -0.33 0.33
10 1.FC Kaiserslautern 26.41 24 -2.41 2.41
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 29.53 27 -2.53 2.53
12 TSG Hoffenheim 35.75 33 -2.75 2.75
13 FC Bayern Munich 46.55 42 -4.55 4.55
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 25.72 19 -6.72 6.72
15 FC Schalke 04 37.70 30 -7.70 7.70
16 VfL Wolfsburg 35.33 26 -9.33 9.33
17 Werder Bremen 35.75 25 -10.75 10.75
18 VfB Stuttgart 34.80 22 -12.80 12.80
6.01 125.75
Still Hannover as the main winner. Sure, the near-relegation to 3rd place is a sensation and Dortmund should have been expected to be up there given their brilliant second half last season, just not at the top. Nevertheless, the number of points scored and the fact that they exceeded expectations are of course outstanding – and, if you like, a certificate of poverty for the computer. But who could have predicted it better?
Stuttgart and Werder at the bottom of the league, but also Schalke and Wolfsburg document and justify the term “problem children” that was coined for them (weeks ago). Not even Gladbach is giving them any real competition, which once again shows the proportionality of the world. Relativity? One is relegated but was better, another stays in but was worse than the other? Well, that’s overstating the case, certainly, but…
The average point deviation, which is a measure of the perceived surprises, can also be compared internationally. Here is an overview of the top leagues in Europe.
League 1 ø Deviation Change from previous week
Germany 6.99 0.44
Italy 4.94 0.33
Spain 3.96 0.16
France 3.57 0.02
England 2.84 -0.20
As you can see, Germany’s 1st league is way ahead. To what extent this represents a lack of quality must be proven by international comparisons. In any case, it is exciting, to the delight of the fans (the element of suspense: the unpredictability of the match outcomes). But as can also be seen, other tables do not correct themselves either. There is an increase in deviation almost everywhere, which again points to a kind of trend. This trend should be: the table is more useful for assessing a match than any theoretical squad qualities. This would certainly suit Otto Rehhagel, because, as always, “the truth is on the pitch.
9) Goal expectations and their deviations
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. However, the goal average may show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Dortmund 42.40 52 26.70 14 22.30
2 1.FC Nürnberg 28.99 34 39.50 32 12.51
3 Hannover 96 30.82 34 38.37 31 10.55
4 FSV Mainz 05 33.72 37 35.07 30 8.35
5 SC Freiburg 31.97 31 37.09 31 5.12
6 Bayer Leverkusen 42.92 50 30.52 34 3.60
7 1.FC Kaiserslautern 29.74 33 40.65 42 1.91
8 FC St. Pauli 27.58 27 40.37 38 1.79
9 TSG Hoffenheim 37.74 41 33.49 35 1.75
10 1.FC Köln 29.42 31 41.01 42 0.59
11 FC Bayern Munich 44.67 50 23.45 30 -1.22
12 Hamburger SV 38.05 35 31.42 32 -3.63
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 31.16 24 36.49 34 -4.67
14 FC Schalke 04 37.68 29 30.35 29 -7.33
15 VfB Stuttgart 38.33 42 35.92 47 -7.41
16 VfL Wolfsburg 36.38 29 32.67 34 -8.72
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 32.20 35 44.90 59 -11.30
18 Werder Bremen 38.68 30 34.48 50 -24.20
632.45 644 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 7.61
2.93 2.98 Analogous to the point deviations, here are the goal deviations. In general, they are somewhat larger (possible), since the goal scale is open to the top, in contrast to the point scale. The goal ratio plays the decisive role here, but, with some justification, one can also say that it has a great (greater?) significance than the points. In one game, one goal may have been the undoing of another, but in total, you can read the quality quite well. Bayern, for example, are only marginally in the red because they have a goal difference of +20. Werder, of course, is further behind due to the many goals conceded.
Again, the international comparison is used for this statistic:
Rank Country League 1 ø Goal difference Change from previous week
1 Germany 7.61 0.15
2 Italy 5.64 0.52
3 Spain 5.23 0.14
4 England 5.24 0.15
5 France 4.58 -0.27
Also way out in front in this statistic: the German Bundesliga. The same trend here: almost all deviations are increasing. Of course, this could mean a weakness in the computer’s predictive qualities, since the deviations are measured on the basis of its “invented” expectations. Well, the possible consequence would be: one has to react to the results faster (than before). Time has become faster, so why not developments as well? By the way, such studies could also be applied to other sports in which rankings are used. The example so often cited in this text: chess. The development of the Elo numbers is not verified in this way, but it could be, with a comparable kind of statistics. The success? Fairer rankings. Desirable?
10) The playing strength ranking
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.88 0.86 2.18 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.14 1.12 1.91 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.90 1.31 1.45 +0
4 Hamburger SV 1.51 1.27 1.19 +0
5 FC Schalke 04 1.36 1.15 1.17 +0
6 1.FC Nürnberg 1.41 1.37 1.02 +1
7 TSG Hoffenheim 1.52 1.50 1.02 -1
8 FSV Mainz 05 1.39 1.42 0.97 +2
9 Hannover 96 1.35 1.38 0.97 +0
10 SC Freiburg 1.29 1.34 0.96 -2
11 VfL Wolfsburg 1.27 1.40 0.90 +0
12 VfB Stuttgart 1.56 1.75 0.90 +1
13 Werder Bremen 1.45 1.63 0.89 -1
14 1.FC Köln 1.33 1.63 0.82 +0
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.25 1.73 0.72 +0
16 FC St. Pauli 1.13 1.65 0.68 +0
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.02 1.53 0.67 +0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.36 2.04 0.67 +0
26.09 26.09 +0
Goals ø expected
2.899 The admitted manual interventions prove previously said (of which no use was made this week). The rankings were not correct. The predictions were not good. So one adjusts. The long-term trend still needs to be confirmed, of course, but if repeated, for example, in the following season, it may well serve as a basis for programme or parameter setting changes.
It is also fair to say, however, that the market is having a hard time with uniform assessments this season, especially in the Bundesliga. No one can really interpret what is happening at the moment, that is to say.
11) The frequency of tendency changes
Note: a “change of tendency” is considered to be a goal that equalises a lead or scores a lead. The 1:0 is not counted, because without this goal it would not even begin to have anything to do with tension in the goal sequence. Every now and then, a statistical comparison is made here with other countries. This shows that there are more changes of tendency in Germany than elsewhere, which on the one hand points to perceived tension in the Bundesliga – which is possibly envied abroad – and on the other hand points to possible tactical deficiencies, which, following an old tradition, make one advise to urgently go for a second goal after a 1:0 – and not to dull and insipidly, as is usual abroad, rock this goal over time. International comparisons provide more information about the effectiveness or weakness of German behaviour.
Since the topic of “tension” in itself was the initial reason for starting these texts here, one can of course gladly refer to it at this point. Every change of tendency in a game creates perceived tension. The neutral hopes that “something will happen”, and by this he certainly means goals, but not those to make it 2-0 or even 3-0, 4-0, because they are goals too, but you only know all the more for sure how the game will end. An equaliser creates suspense, but whether it was expected or deserved hardly matters. A late winning goal also falls into this category. Even if the fan of the team concerned does not want to see it, the anticipation beforehand creates suspense.
Of course, the basic assertion remains: there are too few such moments of suspense. On the one hand, the number of goals is generally too low at less than 3 goals per game, on the other hand, the changes in tendency are too rare, although there is of course a connection between the two. More goals, however, could provide for both to a greater extent∂ and could be achieved – as also indicated above – through simple but still correct rule interpretations. Unfortunately, the trend is going in the completely different, but wrong direction. The reason: lack of understanding at the highest level. What makes football exciting? Beckenbauer is not interested in that. He is, you see, according to his unreflective opinion.
So what did this match day bring in the category? Wolfsburg against Gladbach was over 2:0 to 2:1, so no one, although a connecting goal can occasionally provide some excitement (you’d have to make a different kind of statistic to investigate that; it doesn’t count here). Kaiserslautern against HSV has, like every 1:1 game, a tendency change, just like Schalke against Nürnberg. St.Pauli against Hannover none, because 0:1, but Hoffenheim against Mainz two, because Hoffenheim equalised in the 83rd, but Mainz scored the winner in the 86th. Cologne against Freiburg 1:0, so none, but Bayern against Dortmund two, as Bayern equalised to 1:1, Dortmund then regained the lead. Frankfurt against Stuttgart had none, at 0:2, but Werder against leverkusen had one again, as Werder managed to equalise from 0:2 to 2:2 (a course which actually makes for more suspense compared to a 1:1, as one was initially two goals behind, but made up for those; nevertheless, it only counts with a change of tendency; well, note as above).
So overall there were 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 7. This is just below the long-term average of 0.89, as 7/9 = 0.78.
12) The mathematical review of the results of the 23rd matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total DeviationWolfsburg Gladbach 1.99 1.28 3.27 2 1 0.01 -0.28
Kaiserslautern HSV 1.23 1.47 2.69 1 1 -0.23 -0.47
Schalke 04 Nuremberg 1.55 0.94 2.49 1 1 -0.55 0.06
St. Pauli Hannover 1.36 1.30 2.66 0 1 -1.36 -0.30
Hoffenheim Mainz 1.78 1.30 3.07 1 2 -0.78 0.70
FC Cologne Freiburg 1.49 1.31 2.80 1 0 -0.49 -1.31
FC Bayern Dortmund 1.52 1.12 2.64 1 3 -0.52 1.88
Frankfurt Stuttgart 1.43 1.43 2.86 0 2 -1.43 0.57
Bremen Leverkusen 1.38 1.84 3.22 2 2 0.62 0.16
13.72 11.99 25.72 9 13 -4.72 1.01
Expected goal total Expected goal average Scored goal average
25.72 2.86 2.444
ø Goal difference 1.30Again the home teams as losers, with only 9:13 goals, compared to almost 14:12 expected. The total too low anyway, but overall clearly to the detriment of the hosts. The average goal difference very low, suggesting that there were (clearly) too few runaway results. Yes, there is certainly a dogged fight for points on all courts at this stage of the season, but the referees are also playing the soggy game. They don’t dare to make goal-scoring decisions. When in doubt, offside (contrary to the rules), when in doubt, no penalty. The consequence of this even more: Don’t allow a goal. Because: you never equalise. This trend could also change if there were more goals, more allowed goal chances on the part of the referees, on DFB instructions of course.
Note: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher a favourite position is, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality in the long term by comparing expected/occurred events.
The determination expected Pairing 1 X 2
Wolfsburg Gladbach 53.89% 21.74% 24.37% 39.71%
Kaiserslautern HSV 31.65% 25.69% 42.66% 34.81%
Schalke 04 Nuremberg 51.56% 25.58% 22.86% 38.35%
St. Pauli Hannover 38.31% 26.07% 35.62% 34.16%
Hoffenheim Mainz 48.69% 23.29% 28.02% 36.98%
FC Cologne Freiburg 41.48% 25.20% 33.32% 34.66%
FC Bayern Dortmund 46.42% 25.60% 27.98% 35.93%
Frankfurt Stuttgart 37.47% 25.03% 37.50% 34.37%
Bremen Leverkusen 28.79% 22.73% 48.48% 36.96%
3.84 2.18 2.98 3.28
Average expected commitment: 36.44%Just to remind you, the expected determination, with the 36.44%, was in favour of very even games, i.e. quite weak predictability.
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2 Tendency W-ness event occurred
Wolfsburg Gladbach 53.89% 21.74% 24.37% 53.89%
Kaiserslautern HSV 31.65% 25.69% 42.66% 25.69%
Schalke 04 Nuremberg 51.56% 25.58% 22.86% 25.58%
St. Pauli Hannover 38.31% 26.07% 35.62% 35.62%
Hoffenheim Mainz 48.69% 23.29% 28.02% 28.02%
FC Cologne Freiburg 41.48% 25.20% 33.32% 41.48%
FC Bayern Dortmund 46.42% 25.60% 27.98% 27.98%
Frankfurt Stuttgart 37.47% 25.03% 37.50% 37.50%
Bremen Leverkusen 28.79% 22.73% 48.48% 22.73%
3.78 2.21 3.01 2.98
average number of points scored: 33.17% As you can see, with 33.17% achieved, one could have “spared” the entire prediction. It would have been better to say: “I have no idea how the games will turn out. All chances are equally likely. So 1/3 home win, 1/3 draw, 1/3 away win.” He would have achieved his predicted 33.33% in full.
But if you don’t doubt the computer (and thus the betting market, which showed similar values and favourites), but look elsewhere for the causes, you find out: all the draws in the Bundesliga are always clear outsider events due to the (otherwise) low frequency, and there were three of them, i.e. too many. Mainz’s win in Hoffenheim was another outsider’s success, as was Dortmund’s in Munich, of course. So? Actually, everything is clear. After all, who could have predicted that? By the way: the computer clearly advised a Dortmund bet, from the point of view of the betting market…
13) Overall league statistics
Note: statistics of this kind are regularly compiled by the computer. It is generally used for quality control of the individual figures. Each figure has its meaning and is explained in more detail. The goal average is not repeated here. The home advantage is calculated by dividing the goals scored by the home team by half of the total goals. In this way, you can see how many more goals the home teams score than they would score without home advantage. 1,116 is 11.6% more for the home team, 11.6% less for the away team.
1st Football Bundesliga 2010/2011
Statistics of the actual results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals conceded Home advantage
216 96 45 75 356 288 1.106
Statistics of expected results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
216 98.14 51.01 66.83 354.0 278.3 1.120
Statistics of absolute deviations Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -2.14 -6.01 8.17 2 9.7 -0.0141
Percentage deviation statisticsMatches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -0.99% -2.78% 3.78% 0.93% 4.49% -0.01%
Determination expected Determination arrived
39.46% 37.83%
ø Goal difference ø Goal difference expected
1.98 1.91 You can see that there are fewer home wins overall this season. Surely (too many) away wins are pretty closely related to that. On the other hand, something like this could also herald a trend. This could be: the referees are becoming more and more objective (heretically: they don’t care whose strikers they disadvantage) and, due to the omnipresence of the cameras, they no longer really have the possibility to “get away” with whistling for the home team (as they did 20 or 30 years ago). Although referees are still psychologically influenced by the crowds and could consider a harmless challenge to be a bad foul because of the (whistle-blowing) spectators’ reaction, training courses are increasingly moving in the direction of not being influenced by this. The result: the home advantage is diminishing. (This trend, by the way, is demonstrable throughout Europe, just creeping).
The deviation figures of expected determination to actual determination are comparatively very high. However, it is in line with what has been observed for this season in particular, which would first have to be repeated in order to prove to be trend-setting. It is a surprisingly high deviation. It is a season full of surprises. So much for consensus. Backed up with numbers, which one intuitively senses.
Even the average goal deviation – despite the still seemingly low deviation of 1.98 compared to 1.91 expected – is above the deviations observed over many years. The same statement: yes, there are (too) many surprises.
14) Preview of the 24th matchday
Note: The computer calculates the goal expectations (and the individually maintained home advantage not shown here) into these goal expectations according to a specially developed – naturally explainable and highly logical – algorithm. These in turn are offset against the probabilities of occurrence, in the past by simulation, today long since by a function derived from the simulation results). These goal expectancy values have also long since proved to be competitive in goal number betting on the betting market.
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
Dortmund FC Cologne 2.30 0.65 2.94
Stuttgart Schalke 04 1.43 1.39 2.81
Frankfurt Kaiserslautern 1.37 1.20 2.57
Hannover FC Bayern 1.28 1.74 3.02
Gladbach Hoffenheim 1.52 1.90 3.41
Nuremberg St. Pauli 1.80 0.88 2.68
Leverkusen Wolfsburg 1.92 1.08 3.00
Freiburg Bremen 1.69 1.09 2.78
HSV Mainz 1.71 1.17 2.89
15.02 11.08 26.10
Expected goal total Expected goal average
26.10 2.90 The expected goal average at 2.90 goals. Sure, below the season average, but the trend has been clear and is reflected here. There are fewer goals at the moment, so the machine adequately expects fewer. Home teams ahead in expectation, but again they have yet to prove it. There is little to say about the favourites at this point, only this much about the high-scoring and low-scoring games: Frankfurt Lautern very low-scoring, logical, since the team that doesn’t score at all is also playing at home. Nuremberg against St. Pauli also falls into this category. Gladbach – Hoffenheim very high-scoring, but also the only game.
The determination expected Pairing 1 X 2
Dortmund FC Köln 74.66% 16.56% 8.78% 59.25%
Stuttgart Schalke 04 38.21% 25.42% 36.37% 34.29%
Frankfurt Kaiserslautern 40.63% 26.63% 32.73% 34.32%
Hannover FC Bayern 28.18% 23.67% 48.14% 36.72%
Gladbach Hoffenheim 31.00% 22.32% 46.67% 36.38%
Nuremberg St. Pauli 59.16% 22.93% 17.90% 43.47%
Leverkusen Wolfsburg 57.09% 22.12% 20.79% 41.81%
Freiburg Bremen 51.35% 24.22% 24.43% 38.20%
HSV Mainz 50.00% 23.99% 26.01% 37.52%
4.30 2.08 2.62 3.62
average expected fixing: 40.22%As you can also see here, in the pure probability breakdown for this matchday, the expected favourite events slightly outweigh the season average. Dortmund with a seemingly “easy” task (the chance of not winning of the order of that of a coin falling on the same side twice in a row, which, however, remains absolutely conceivable). Also Nuremberg and Leverkusen with chances quite clearly above 50%, while Bayern are expected to settle for something less in the really important game. Which, of course, they will not do voluntarily but, realising this, take their fate into their own hands. Whether this can actually have a positive influence on their objective chances of victory, however, is more of a philosophical question….
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Dortmund FC Cologne 1.34 6.04 11.39
Stuttgart Schalke 04 2.62 3.93 2.75
Frankfurt Kaiserslautern 2.46 3.75 3.06
Hannover FC Bayern 3.55 4.22 2.08
Gladbach Hoffenheim 3.23 4.48 2.14
Nuremberg St. Pauli 1.69 4.36 5.59
Leverkusen Wolfsburg 1.75 4.52 4.81
Freiburg Bremen 1.95 4.13 4.09
HSV Mainz 2.00 4.17 3.84
Just as a usual extra service, the fair odds, which are the reciprocals of the one-try probabilities. The suggestion to try it out on the betting market remains, of course. In theory, a good bet would be one where the odds received on an event are higher than the fair odds on that event.
15) Evaluation of the 24th Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total Result DeviationCottbus FSV Frankfurt 1.95 1.13 3.09 2 1 0.05 -0.13
Union München 1860 1.31 1.00 2.30 0 1 -1.31 0.00
Oberhausen Duisburg 0.93 1.44 2.38 0 0.93 -1.44
Bielefeld SC Paderborn 0.98 1.43 2.41 1 1 0.02 -0.43
Aachen Hertha 1.47 1.70 3.16 0 5 -1.47 3.30
Karlsruhe Ingolstad 1.75 1.18 2.93 1 4 -0.75 2.82
Greuther Fürth Bochum 1.16 0.94 2.11 1 1 -0.16 0.06
Düsseldorf Osnabrück 2.09 0.93 3.02 2 1 -0.09 0.07
Augsburg Erzgebirge Aue 1.87 0.64 2.50 2 1 0.13 0.36
13.51 10.39 23.90 9 15 -4.51 4.61
Expected Goal Total Expected Goal Total: Goal Total: Goal Total
23.90 2.66 24 2.667
ø Goal deviation: 1.27 Just for comparison, the evaluation of the 23rd second division matchday. Here, too, the away victories clearly outweighed the expected 13.5 : 10.5 with a goal difference of 9:15. The goal average showed no deviation and the average goal deviation of 1.27 is also very low, indicating that the game was played “fairly normally”, despite the one outlier with the 0:5.
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Cottbus FSV Frankfurt 56.71% 21.53% 21.76% 41.53%
Union Munich 1860 44.01% 27.34% 28.65% 35.05%
Oberhausen Duisburg 24.57% 26.24% 49.19% 37.12%
Bielefeld SC Paderborn 26.09% 26.24% 47.68% 36.42%
Aachen Hertha 33.59% 22.96% 43.45% 35.43%
Karlsruhe Ingolstad 50.88% 23.15% 25.97% 37.99%
Greuther Fürth Bochum 41.04% 29.09% 29.86% 34.23%
Düsseldorf Osnabrück 64.41% 19.83% 15.76% 47.90%
Augsburg Erzgebirge Aue 66.95% 21.01% 12.04% 50.69%
4.08 2.17 2.74 3.56
Average expected commitment: 39.60% As a reminder, the expected stipulation, which is rather above average by Zweitliga standards, both for the season and long term. It was more of a “favourites” fixture, so to speak, but that would need to be confirmed in reality….
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2
Cottbus FSV Frankfurt 56.71% 21.53% 21.76% 56.71%
Union Munich 1860 44.01% 27.34% 28.65% 28.65%
Oberhausen Duisburg 24.57% 26.24% 49.19% 26.24%
Bielefeld SC Paderborn 26.09% 26.24% 47.68% 26.24%
Aachen Hertha 33.59% 22.96% 43.45% 43.45%
Karlsruhe Ingolstad 50.88% 23.15% 25.97% 25.97%
Greuther Fürth Bochum 41.04% 29.09% 29.86% 29.09%
Düsseldorf Osnabrück 64.41% 19.83% 15.76% 64.41%
Augsburg Erzgebirge Aue 66.95% 21.01% 12.04% 66.95%
4.08 2.17 2.74 3.68
average commitment received: 40.86% Well, actually, as you can see, many favourites won, even more than one might have expected (or even the stupid computer expected). The clear favourites have won all three (with over 55% even), Hertha also contributes, while in the balanced pairings just as expected “something” happens. Just so, as a rough guideline. (Duisburg, Paderborn were also quite clear favourites).
16) Preview of the 25th Second Division matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away TotalMunich 1860 Oberhausen 1.69 0.71 2.41
Hertha FSV Frankfurt 2.17 0.91 3.08
Osnabrück Greuther Fürth 1.17 1.46 2.63
Bochum Karlsruhe 2.40 0.92 3.32
SC Paderborn Cottbus 1.47 1.31 2.78
Duisburg Bielefeld 2.44 0.54 2.99
Erzgebirge Aue Union 1.24 0.88 2.12
Ingolstad Aachen 1.37 1.54 2.90
Augsburg Düsseldorf 1.67 0.76 2.43
15.62 9.03 24.65
Expected goal total Expected goal average
24.65 2.74 Just briefly these values. The 2nd division still lags behind the first in terms of goal average. So, of course, fewer are expected. The home teams are expected to be clearly ahead, we’ll see.
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Oberhausen 61.10% 23.48% 15.42% 45.22%
Hertha FSV Frankfurt 66.26% 19.13% 14.61% 49.70%
Osnabrück Greuther Fürth 30.31% 25.49% 44.20% 35.22%
Bochum Karlsruhe 70.26% 17.14% 12.60% 53.89%
SC Paderborn Cottbus 41.18% 24.88% 33.94% 34.67%
Duisburg Bielefeld 79.44% 14.24% 6.32% 65.53%
Erzgebirge Aue Union 44.81% 28.84% 26.35% 35.34%
Ingolstad Aachen 34.05% 24.30% 41.65% 34.85%
Augsburg Düsseldorf 59.27% 23.89% 16.84% 43.67%
4.87 2.01 2.12 3.98
Average expected commitment: 44.23 Here you can see that it should be an even clearer favourite matchday. Hertha at home, Munich 60 also clear favourites, Bochum and Duisburg even more so as two more promotion hopefuls get to play relegation candidates.
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Oberhausen 1.64 4.26 6.49
Hertha FSV Frankfurt 1.51 5.23 6.85
Osnabrück Greuther Fürth 3.30 3.92 2.26
Bochum Karlsruhe 1.42 5.83 7.94
SC Paderborn Cottbus 2.43 4.02 2.95
Duisburg Bielefeld 1.26 7.02 15.82
Erzgebirge Aue Union 2.23 3.47 3.80
Ingolstad Aachen 2.94 4.12 2.40
Augsburg Düsseldorf 1.69 4.19 5.94
Finally, the service to try your hand at the betting market. Of course, it also applies to goal expectations that you could try your hand at, as these bets (on over/under = many or few goals) are also offered on the betting market. Only here no numbers are offered (yet).
Have fun with the next match day!
