The betting recommendations
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Here are the “fair odds” calculated by the computer. These are calculated exactly to 100% respectively they are the reciprocals of the calculated odds on 1 – X – 2.
Pairing 1 X 2 % Average
Goal expectation 2.80
These are the figures compared with the betting market. These are always based on Monday’s figures from the betting exchange betfair.
Here are the displayed bets for the 28th matchday. A bet is always “displayed” – from the computer’s point of view – if the odds to be achieved on the market are above the fair odds.
For this weekend, almost all bets seem to have been made up out of thin air. There are no real bargains, but you have to look for them for a long time anyway. There are no guarantees of success at any point, even if one is very convinced of the quality of individual bets from time to time.
Short commentary on the betting recommendations
Once again, what the computer spits out in comparison with the betting market does not look particularly tingly. In general, one should take into account that intuition should be used much more often towards the end of the season. This is even done (to a very limited extent) when the figures are compiled, by making tiny interventions. The reasoning is purely that of motivation, which is simply highly variable, even if, especially in recent years, there could hardly be any question of teams ever causing distortions in competition. After all, there are still decisions to be made in all regions of the table, so that every team is still more or less involved in at least one.
The win bet on Mainz fits brilliantly in that it’s one of the teams you’d love to back based on their performances. Watching Mainz is just fun (as is currently watching Freiburg; of course there are a few more of those). What doesn’t fit are Wolfsburg’s three defeats in a row. But not only that, which might even be in favour of the bet, no, the results did not correctly reflect the quality of the performances. In all three games Wolfsburg was good, sometimes very good, sometimes better than the opponent. The computer only knows the disdainful results, the observer how they came about. In this respect, only a 3/10.
If you can play Bayern, then up with the dough, surely? No, it doesn’t fit here either. But this is not because Bayern don’t want to win the game or will give it away, rather because they have Real Madrid behind them AND in front of them. Who knows with which line-up they will start? On the other hand, some of the second row, who are hardly less good, just not considered, could cause a sensation and come up with very special motivation? Besides, Werder really haven’t played well for a few weeks now. So we’ll take a 3/10.
There is also at least one catch in the win bet on Stuttgart. Cologne are fighting for survival and interim coach Frank Schäfer has already appealed to the fans that their support is needed. There will be something going on in Cologne and Stuttgart will perhaps protect the bones rather than necessarily chase 4th place, which they probably won’t reach anyway? And 7th place could also be secured in the following two games. Well, the advantage is gigantic and Stuttgart is another team that is a lot of fun lately with series of great performances and wonderful goals (Gentner on Friday once again). Accordingly, maybe also a 3/10?
The win bet on Gladbach somehow appeals very much. Of course, the odds are huge and the chance of winning is also low, but both are in a favourable ratio for the professional player. The last performance was great and Marco Reus is still in excellent shape (but “shape” is certainly the wrong term; he is just so good). The rest of the squad also returned to their old virtues in the last game. And Dortmund? They hardly give any reason for doubt, of course, but the last game was not quite as good as the result. Well, with an 8.20 you don’t have to think long – and still keep the stakes low, of course, still a 2/10.
Given Freiburg’s really brilliant performances in recent weeks to months, the bet on Hannover doesn’t look a bit good, of course. On the other hand, it could be that Freiburg, with their class almost secured, will slacken a little in their efforts, while Hannover will keep their sights firmly on 7th place. Many great home games justify the bet, so that, in view of the small advantage, one also comes to 3/10.