1) Review of the matches
Results of the 23rd matchday
1st FC Nuremberg – Eintracht Frankfurt 3:0 (0:0)
Hannover 96 – 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3:0 (2:0)
Hamburger SV – Werder Bremen 4:0 (1:0)
SC Freiburg – VfL Wolfsburg 2:1 (1:1)
Borussia Dortmund – FC St. Pauli 2:0 (1:0)
TSG Hoffenheim – 1. FC Köln 1:1 (0:0)
FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern Munich 1:3 (0:1)
Bayer Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart 4:2 (2:1)
General assessment:
Nothing is more consistent this season than — the perceived surprises. So you kind of think that Werder, Stuttgart and Wolfsburg will be able to pull away from the danger ranks at some point? Instead, they slip deeper and deeper into it. Now, of course, you always have to differentiate between the games and the course of the games themselves as well as the difficulty of the task and, of course, the performance shown. For example, Stuttgart had a very difficult task in Leverkusen, but showed a really good performance and was on the verge of taking the lead themselves at 2:2, before Leverkusen scored. The 4:2 in the last minute was due to the urge for the equaliser and therefore meaningless.
Wolfsburg, too, performed well for long stretches and had enough chances to turn the game around. Nevertheless, the realisation remains: in the end, pointless, as in numerous appearances before, which then suggests the suspicion that bad luck can also turn on the same for a longer period of time. The experienced interpretation: on the one hand it is acknowledged (these are exactly the things you concede when you are at the bottom; or: first you have no luck and then bad luck comes along, which is of course much wiser than presumably intended and understood), but on the other hand it is vehemently denied (well, if you are so stupid; or: that’s not enough for the league). On the other hand, Werder really did look anything but orderly, at least defensively, and this may be taken seriously at this point, since it was spoken in a reflective and considered manner in comparison to some of the empty phrases. In fact, Per Mertesacker, who is usually so reliable, failed to do just about everything.
Well, all three candidates had (difficult) away games and, as much as the overall result and the lack of a table correction may surprise you, they were underdogs in their matches. In any case, week after week the
The same thing happens week after week: the teams at the bottom of the table, which had previously been in a good position, do not get going and do not take any points.
Frankfurt’s Eintracht, which caused a sensation in the first half of the season with many a great performance, has failed to score in six games! The relegation zone is getting dangerously close (from their point of view; Gladbach, Werder, Wolfsburg, Cologne, Pauli, Stuttgart should be pleased) and this will also be reflected in the numbers.
At the top, Dortmund may have scored a completely deserved victory, but scoring goals is no longer as easy as it used to be. The comparable “heavy arm” of the tennis player who has put his foot down? In any case, the tension ahead of the summit meeting next weekend is likely to be quite high, as one would prefer not to give up a single metre of ground right now.
Bayern simply play great football throughout and are ready to reap the rewards. Nevertheless, one can express a little regret for Mainz, who, as André Schürrle said in an interview after the game, repeatedly put in a huge effort but are not getting any reward for it. From a purely playful point of view, the performance was also very decent for long stretches and even the announcer could not conceal the comment that Mainz would have deserved an equaliser at the break.
Hannover also remained consistent with a clear victory over the now also highly endangered Palatinate. So in this respect, too, trends are confirmed and not changed, as one might have been used to in earlier years. Whether this is a lasting trend, according to which everyone is possibly as good as their position in the standings indicates – in other words, whether everything can be blamed on the mental component, so to speak – remains to be seen in the longer term. This season at least shows that it is conceivable.
2) The standings
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 23 17 4 2 55 49 – 13 +36
2 Bayer Leverkusen 23 13 6 4 45 48 – 32 +16
3 FC Bayern Munich 23 12 6 5 42 49 – 27 +22
4 Hannover 96 23 13 2 8 41 33 – 31 +2
5 FSV Mainz 05 23 12 1 10 37 35 – 29 +6
6 SC Freiburg 23 11 4 8 37 31 – 30 +1
7 Hamburger SV 23 11 3 9 36 34 – 31 +3
8 1.FC Nürnberg 23 10 5 8 35 33 – 31 +2
9 TSG Hoffenheim 23 8 9 6 33 40 – 33 +7
10 FC Schalke 04 23 8 5 10 29 28 – 28 +0
11 FC St. Pauli 23 8 4 11 28 27 – 37 -10
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 23 8 3 12 27 24 – 32 -8
13 1.FC Köln 23 7 5 11 26 30 – 42 -12
14 Werder Bremen 23 6 6 11 24 28 – 48 -20
15 VfL Wolfsburg 23 5 8 10 23 27 – 33 -6
16 1.FC Kaiserslautern 23 6 5 12 23 32 – 41 -9
17 VfB Stuttgart 23 5 4 14 19 40 – 47 -7
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 23 5 4 14 19 34 – 57 -23
622 622 0
Total number of games 207
Goals ø 3.00
The changes are minor, if you like. Surprising and outstanding how St. Pauli and Cologne have gained a lot of ground, whereas, as already indicated, the heavyweights are slipping deeper and deeper. Stuttgart is no longer even within striking distance of a relegation place. Hannover and Freiburg are almost established at the top, and Mainz are also performing well, so you could possibly even expect a positive run for them again. Schalke, too, is not making any headway. In Gladbach, the small spark of hope that Lucien Favre could possibly rekindle.
3) The title question
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations (also given in the text below) and the final table is used to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities1 Borussia Dortmund 4801 96.02% 1.04
2 FC Bayern Munich 103 2.06% 49
3 Bayer Leverkusen 93 1.86% 54
4 Hannover 96 2 0.04% 2500
5 SC Freiburg 1 0.02%
5000 100.00%
Well, you can’t speak of real movement here. 96% sounds very solid. By the way, Dortmund is trading at 1.15 on the betting market. So anyone who still has money to spare and trusts the computer simulation is welcome to give it a try. After Saturday it might be too late…
Change in chances compared to the previous week due to the results of match day 23
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championships in percent
Borussia Dortmund 27 0.54%
Bayer Leverkusen 1 0.02%
SC Freiburg 1 0.02%
Hamburger SV -3 -0.06%
FC Bayern Munich -26 -0.52%
0 0.00%
This result may cause surprise and perhaps needs clarification:
Dortmund’s chances are increasing, Bayern’s are decreasing (almost in the same proportion), even though Bayern won a more difficult match…! Well, the explanation is not that complicated: Bayern’s low chances are based on the chance that Dortmund will not win once. You have to bear in mind that the chance of not winning against St. Pauli was rated much higher by the computer than the chance of not winning the title. In other words, Bayern’s chances of such a slip-up were much higher, even though that was not very likely either.
It is also clear that they lose while Leverkusen stays the same: Bayern are the better team and would win a lot if Dortmund slips, while Leverkusen has to win its own games and needs slips, preferably from both.
4) The title chances as they develop
Nevertheless, Dortmund’s curve does not approach 1.0 decisively. The “normal case” when one is very close to 1 (which Dortmund has been doing for quite some time) is that it then often goes very quickly until they reach it. So: either the small miracle happens immediately, or it’s over and done with. Here it is noticeable that Bayern is keeping the little flame burning while still having to focus on the Champions League match against Inter. A balancing act that, if anyone in Germany, only Bayern can pull off. That’s what makes or underpins their exceptional position. We’ll know more on Saturday evening…
5) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
The probability distribution for 2nd place after the 23rd matchday
Team Number 2nd place 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities1 FC Bayern Munich 2419 48.38% 2.07
2 Bayer Leverkusen 2227 44.54% 2.25
3 Borussia Dortmund 178 3.56% 28.09
4 Hannover 96 99 1.98% 50.51
5 Hamburger SV 34 0.68% 147.06
6 FSV Mainz 05 14 0.28% 357.14
7 SC Freiburg 14 0.28% 357.14
8 1.FC Nürnberg 8 0.16% 625.00
9 TSG Hoffenheim 6 0.12% 833.33
10 FC Schalke 04 1 0.02% 5000.00
5000 100.00%
It is clear that Bayern remains the favourite despite the points deficit. At 11 games, the distance is simply too great to compensate for the difference in playing strength. However, they are only slight favourites, which shows respect for Leverkusen (on the part of the computer).
At least Hannover are also still playing a little bit, while the rest have only very slim chances of sensation.
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team win/loss absolute win/loss percentage
1 Bayer Leverkusen 147 2.94%
2 Hannover 96 19 0.38%
3 FC Bayern Munich 17 0.34%
4 1.FC Nuremberg 3 0.06%
5 1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
6 1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
7 Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0.00%
9 FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
10 VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
11 VfL Wolfsburg 0 0.00%
12 Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
13 SC Freiburg -3 -0.06%
14 FC Schalke 04 -6 -0.12%
15 TSG Hoffenheim -11 -0.22%
16 Borussia Dortmund -25 -0.50%
17 Hamburger SV -67 -1.34%
18 FSV Mainz 05 -74 -1.48%
0 0.00%
Winners nevertheless Leverkusen in the race for second place. Mainz, HSV and – fortunately from their point of view – Dortmund still lost out. These chances have to go to someone. Bayern were favourites and remain so, winning too. But they win little, as Leverkusen in particular got rid of rivals. As favourites on the pitch, it is more difficult to add chances, according to the statement.
6) The relegation question
The distribution of relegation percentages
Note: There would also be a detailed breakdown across the individual places. Here, places 17 and 18 count as fully relegated (i.e. in total as 1, for relegated, otherwise the term is “direct relegation”), and a further third of relegated teams are added due to the relegation, whereby the Bundesliga team is generally rated as 2/3 to 1/3 favourite. This makes the total number of relegated teams equal to 233.33%. In individual cases, of course, it would be different in reality. So if, for example, Hertha entered in 3rd place and St. Pauli in 16th, one could perhaps speak of a balanced pairing.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 79.48% 3.16% 82.64%
2 VfB Stuttgart 43.82% 5.61% 49.43%
3 1.FC Kaiserslautern 25.58% 5.89% 31.47%
4 Werder Bremen 12.84% 3.81% 16.65%
5 VfL Wolfsburg 11.14% 3.67% 14.81%
6 1.FC Köln 10.32% 3.82% 14.14%
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 9.66% 3.92% 13.58%
8 FC St. Pauli 6.72% 3.08% 9.80%
9 FC Schalke 04 0.38% 0.31% 0.69%
10 TSG Hoffenheim 0.04% 0.03% 0.07%
11 1.FC Nuremberg 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
Of course, the much more exciting question compared to the title. Gladbach remains the clear favourite, of course, but the chances (the danger) can hardly have increased. Stuttgart are already in second place (in the danger rankings), but given their position in the table, that can’t be any different.
Lautern are also in line, and Werder are not pulling away. As you can see, Frankfurt has also “created” a few noteworthy chances in the meantime.
The change in chances from the 22nd to the 23rd matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances
1 VfB Stuttgart 8.64%
2 1.FC Kaiserslautern 7.59%
3 VfL Wolfsburg 5.48%
4 Werder Bremen 5.43%
5 Eintracht Frankfurt 4.47%
6 FC Schalke 04 0.37%
7 FSV Mainz 05 0.01%
8 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00%
9 Borussia Dortmund 0.00%
10 FC Bayern Munich 0.00%
11 Hannover 96 -0.01%
12 Hamburger SV -0.02%
13 TSG Hoffenheim -0.07%
14 SC Freiburg -0.07%
15 1.FC Nuremberg -0.43%
16 1.FC Cologne -3.33%
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach -12.49%
18 FC St. Pauli -15.55%
0.00%
The big loser, of course, Stuttgart. Defeats, even if expected, in this situation simply have to hurt. On the other hand, the main rivals won, which also costs right.
Lautern are at the bottom of the league, and defeats can only cost them in view of their rivals’ victories. Wolfsburg and Werder are also climbing and climbing, while Frankfurt’s development in chances provides confirmation of the verbal preparation for this.
Winners, of course, are St. Pauli and Gladbach, with St. Pauli still credited with Wednesday’s win in the derby against HSV.
7) The relegation question in development
A rather pretty picture which, due to the clearly recognisable jaggedness, lends credence to the claim that things are exciting. No one really heading for 1 – and Gladbach in particular was in danger, but stopped the trend for the time being with the typical rip cord reaction. All the others are sometimes more, sometimes less in danger, as the jags show.
“The rest” was included because among them are Wolfsburg and Frankfurt, not quite serious candidates some time ago (and the lines should not become too diverse because of clarity restrictions.
8) The point expectations and the deviations
Explanation: for each match, the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per game according to the formula probability of winning * 3 points + probability of drawing * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with the expected ones, but the three-point rule forces an imbalance. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 Hannover 96 27.06 41 13.94 13.94
2 Borussia Dortmund 41.89 55 13.11 13.11
3 1.FC Nürnberg 25.54 35 9.46 9.46
4 SC Freiburg 28.68 37 8.32 8.32
5 Bayer Leverkusen 39.23 45 5.77 5.77
6 FSV Mainz 05 31.28 37 5.72 5.72
7 FC St. Pauli 23.63 28 4.37 4.37
8 1.FC Köln 24.53 26 1.47 1.47
9 Hamburger SV 35.79 36 0.21 0.21
10 TSG Hoffenheim 34.06 33 -1.06 1.06
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 28.15 27 -1.15 1.15
12 1.FC Kaiserslautern 25.21 23 -2.21 2.21
13 FC Bayern Munich 44.90 42 -2.90 2.90
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 24.77 19 -5.77 5.77
15 FC Schalke 04 35.90 29 -6.90 6.90
16 VfL Wolfsburg 33.50 23 -10.50 10.50
17 Werder Bremen 34.65 24 -10.65 10.65
18 VfB Stuttgart 33.42 19 -14.42 14.42
6.80 117.94
ø Deviation 6.55Hannover’s top position is of course astonishing. However, if you remember how painstakingly they managed to stay in the league, you at least understand the computer view not to expect too much. And it is precisely the above statistics that show the deviation from this expectation.
Right at the back, of course, Stuttgart, Werder and Wolfsburg, all underachieving by more than 10 points, which is shocking in itself and thus drives up the next figure, the average deviation with decide – compared to abroad. None plays like it should, if you will. This is reflected in the results.
Here again is the foreign comparison, in terms of the tension level indicated per this measure, this time including the change from the previous week:
League 1 ø Deviation Change from previous week.
Germany 6.55 0.55
Italy 4.61 0.27
Spain 3.80 -0.08
France 3.55 0.35
England 3.04 0.06
Germany clearly holds on to its top position, even again with a trend towards higher deviation, which supports the verbally implied explanation. Whoever is in a good position wins (and thus deviates even more from his expectation), whoever is in a bad position in the table loses (and, in absolute terms, also deviates even more from his expectation). The result: the average deviation (which of course is based on the absolute deviations) grows and grows…
But also abroad there are (moderate) shifts towards confirmation of the table pictures instead of correction.
9) Goal expectations and their deviations
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. However, the goal average may show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Dortmund 41.28 49 25.18 13 19.90
2 1.FC Nürnberg 28.05 33 37.95 31 11.90
3 Hannover 96 29.52 33 37.01 31 9.49
4 FSV Mainz 05 32.42 35 33.29 29 6.87
5 SC Freiburg 30.65 31 35.60 30 5.94
6 Bayer Leverkusen 41.07 48 29.14 32 4.07
7 TSG Hoffenheim 35.97 40 32.20 33 3.23
8 FC St. Pauli 26.22 27 39.07 37 2.85
9 1.FC Kaiserslautern 28.52 32 39.19 41 1.67
10 FC Bayern Munich 43.15 49 22.33 27 1.18
11 1.FC Köln 27.93 30 39.70 42 -0.23
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 29.73 24 35.06 32 -2.67
13 Hamburger SV 36.58 34 30.19 31 -3.39
14 FC Schalke 04 36.13 28 29.41 28 -6.72
15 VfL Wolfsburg 34.40 27 31.39 33 -9.01
16 VfB Stuttgart 36.90 40 34.49 47 -9.41
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 30.92 34 42.91 57 -11.01
18 Werder Bremen 37.30 28 32.63 48 -24.66
606.74 622 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 7.46
2.93 3.00 For the sake of completeness, always this statistic. Of course Werder here – once again with a terrible 0:4 – are last by a long way (cellar deep). Apart from Gladbach, however, a number of well-known teams follow, most of which miss their season goals by a wide margin (except possibly HSV). Bayern already with a positive deviation as far as their goals are concerned. Exactly, as announced a few weeks ago: a few good results and they are in the plus (at that time there was still talk of a big crisis).
Again, the foreign comparison for this statistic:
Rank Country League 1 ø Goal difference Change from previous week.
1 Germany 7.46 0.57
2 Italy 5.12 -0.15
3 Spain 5.09 0.02
4 England 5.09 0.07
5 France 4.85 0.27
As can be seen, this figure also confirms what was previously noted. In Germany, trends were confirmed. Those who were poorly positioned, i.e. already clearly in deficit, increased this deficit, those who were above the norm rather added to it. An increase of 0.57 goals difference on average is enormous.
Even abroad, however, the moderate shift towards higher deviation, rather than a correction. Since minimal but not directly worth mentioning. It would have to be operated in this way in the long term before serious analysis of the causes is considered (and these findings possibly incorporated into the calculation algorithm).
10) The playing strength ranking
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.82 0.88 2.07 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.16 1.06 2.04 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.9 1.3 1.46 +0
4 Hamburger SV 1.53 1.28 1.20 +1
5 FC Schalke 04 1.37 1.15 1.19 -1
6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.55 1.47 1.05 -1
7 1.FC Nürnberg 1.41 1.39 1.01 +6
8 SC Freiburg 1.33 1.37 0.97 +1
9 Hannover 96 1.35 1.43 0.94 +3
10 FSV Mainz 05 1.36 1.45 0.94 -2
11 VfL Wolfsburg 1.27 1.41 0.90 -3
12 Werder Bremen 1.43 1.62 0.88 -2
13 VfB Stuttgart 1.54 1.8 0.86 -2
14 1.FC Köln 1.34 1.67 0.80 +0
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.25 1.74 0.72 +0
16 FC St. Pauli 1.17 1.65 0.71 +1
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 1.51 0.70 -1
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 2.04 0.67 +0
26.21 26.22 +0
Goals ø expected
2.913 Again the confession: due to the persistent trend confirmation, minor manual interventions were again made. It was hard to justify Wolfsburg, Stuttgart and Werder being better than Nürnberg, for example. Nevertheless, the interventions remained minimal and Nuremberg’s jump also had something to do with a 3:0 victory.
11) The frequency of tendency changes
Note: a “change of tendency” is considered to be a goal that equalises a lead or scores a lead. The 1:0 is not counted, because without this goal it would not even begin to have anything to do with tension in the goal sequence. Every now and then, a statistical comparison is made with other countries. This shows that there are more changes of tendency in Germany than elsewhere, which on the one hand indicates a perceived tension in the Bundesliga – which is possibly envied abroad – and on the other hand points to possible tactical deficiencies, which, following an old tradition, advise one to urgently go for a second goal after a 1:0 – and not to dull and blandly, as is common abroad, to rock this goal over time. The international comparisons provide information.
The statistic was about 0.89 changes of tendency per game. Now the analysis, whether this value was exceeded or undercut, so you simply count the changes of tendency:
Freiburg turns the game against Wolfsburg from 0:1 to 2:1, which corresponds to two changes of tendency.
Cologne equalises against Hoffenheim, another one.
Stuttgart equalises against Leverkusen, falls behind, equalises again – and loses. That makes a total of four changes of tendency. One would have to say: it was an exciting game. It certainly was.
Gladbach also turned the game around against Schalke after falling behind early. Two changes of tendency.
In total, therefore, 2 + 1 + 4 + 2 = 9. Nine changes of tendency in nine games equals an average of 1, i.e. above the season average. This means that it was an exciting matchday in this respect.
12) The mathematical review of the results of the 23rd matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total DeviationNuremberg Frankfurt 1.50 0.96 2.46 3 0 1.50 -0.96
Hannover Kaiserslautern 1.88 1.15 3.03 3 0 1.12 -1.15
HSV Bremen 1.91 1.14 3.04 4 0 2.09 -1.14
Freiburg Wolfsburg 1.29 1.05 2.34 2 1 0.71 -0.05
Dortmund St. Pauli 2.36 0.61 2.96 2 0 -0.36 -0.61
Hoffenheim FC Cologne 2.11 1.17 3.28 1 1 -1.11 -0.17
Mainz FC Bayern 1.10 1.73 2.83 1 3 -0.10 1.27
Leverkusen Stuttgart 2.30 1.29 3.59 4 2 1.70 0.71
Gladbach Schalke 04 1.09 1.77 2.86 2 1 0.91 -0.77
15.52 10.87 26.39 22 8 6.48 -2.87
Expected goal total Expected goal average Scored goal average
26.39 2.93 3.33
ø Goal difference 1.82You can see the clear dominance of the home teams on this matchday. They scored 6.48 goals too many and conceded 2.87 too few.
In addition, too many goals were scored again, so that there should be a slight upward correction to the expected goal average (more on this later). The average goal deviation, which is also a measure of surprises in terms of goal deviations (i.e. sensational results like Gladbach’s 3:6 in Leverkusen are extremely reflected here, due to the large number of goals more than Gladbach’s victory).
Note: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher a favourite position, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality in the long term by comparing expected/occurred.
The determination (expected)
Pairing 1 X 2
Nuremberg Frankfurt 49.55% 26.26% 24.19% 37.30%
Hannover Kaiserslautern 54.15% 22.69% 23.16% 39.83%
HSV Bremen 55.27% 22.41% 22.32% 40.55%
Freiburg Wolfsburg 41.98% 28.08% 29.94% 34.47%
Dortmund St. Pauli 76.48% 15.72% 7.80% 61.57%
Hoffenheim FC Cologne 58.68% 20.80% 20.52% 42.97%
Mainz FC Bayern 23.96% 23.94% 52.10% 38.62%
Leverkusen Stuttgart 60.04% 19.54% 20.41% 44.04%
Gladbach Schalke 04 23.17% 23.58% 53.26% 39.29%
4.43 2.03 2.54 3.79
Average expected commitment: 42.07% Regarding the commitment: here, first of all, the expected commitment for the past 23rd matchday is repeated. The exact same values can be found in the file of the previous week. This is just a reminder.
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2 tendency W-ness arrived event
Nuremberg Frankfurt 49.55% 26.26% 24.19% 49.55%
Hannover Kaiserslautern 54.15% 22.69% 23.16% 54.15%
HSV Bremen 55.27% 22.41% 22.32% 55.27%
Freiburg Wolfsburg 41.98% 28.08% 29.94% 41.98%
Dortmund St. Pauli 76.48% 15.72% 7.80% 76.48%
Hoffenheim FC Cologne 58.68% 20.80% 20.52% 20.80%
Mainz FC Bayern 23.96% 23.94% 52.10% 52.10%
Leverkusen Stuttgart 60.04% 19.54% 20.41% 60.04%
Gladbach Schalke 04 23.17% 23.58% 53.26% 23.17%
4.43 2.03 2.54 4.34
Average number of points scored: 48.17% Well, sure, for the first time the expected determination was so clearly exceeded, and this just on a match day when there is talk of a “confirmation of long-term tendencies”. This is almost a kind of paradox, but a resolvable one, on closer inspection.
Of course, somehow and somewhere one “expects” that the heavyweights who have slipped into the bottom of the table will still be able to free themselves and stay in the league. On the other hand, all three of them have tough away matches in which defeats are to be expected. We would still have expected something from this or that team, and that is exactly what the statistics reflect. The fact that they clearly outperformed their expectations proves that there were too few surprises, which is why this fact is so surprising. Everyone is playing as one might expect?! No, is the perceived answer, there must be a surprise here or there?!
The only two were the draw at Hoffenheim and the win by Gladbach. That is too few to statistically meet the norm the other way round, so the expected plethora of surprises failed to materialise.
How this and a few other things develop in the long term can be seen in the new section.
13) Overall league statistics
Note: statistics of this kind are regularly compiled by computer. It is generally used for quality control of the individual figures. Each figure has its own meaning and is explained in more detail. The goal average is not repeated here. The home advantage is calculated by dividing the goals scored by the home team by half of the total goals. In this way, you can see how many more goals the home teams score than they would score without home advantage. 1,116 is 11.6% more for the home team, 11.6% less for the away team.
1st Football Bundesliga 2010/2011
Statistics of the actual results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals conceded Home advantage
207 94 42 71 347 275 1.116
Statistics of expected results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
207 94.36 48.8 63.83 340.3 266.3 1.122
Statistics of absolute deviations Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -0.36 -6.8 7.17 6.7 8.7 -0.0062
Percentage difference statisticsMatches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals conceded Home advantage
0 -0.17% -3.29% 3.46% 3.24% 4.20% 0.00%
Determination expected Determination arrived
39.46% 37.83%
ø Goal difference ø Goal difference expected
1.98 1.91 Perhaps the statistics are still awkwardly arranged for the time being and make it difficult to keep track of them. On the other hand, an explanation here or even a habituation effect could ensure that they are soon easier to read and understand.
In the first statistic, only the status quo is noted, how many wins there were, how many goals home/away, how many draws, how big was the home advantage.
In the second statistic, you can now see what the computer expected. This statistic is of course a very important quality control over the years. Nevertheless, one must not be critical enough. So even if the deviations (as visible in the percentage given) are small, individual games can still be very wrongly estimated, and this effect can be cancelled out again by a so-so and a so-so wrong estimate. For this purpose, the other statistics are included, especially those of the determination, since such errors would be reflected there.
So you can see that both the home teams and the away teams scored too many goals. At the same time, we see that the expected draws remained underfulfilled (fortunately, some will say), but that most of the missing draws were distributed among the away victories, so that overall the home advantage was expected to be somewhat too high.
The average expected draw and the average drawn draw confirm the long-term observation that there are too many surprises (the league is upside down), this matchday has done a little to correct that figure. The one and a half percent that is still a deviation remains quite a lot nonetheless.
Also in the case of the arrived and expected goal deviation – which can actually be calculated on the basis of the possible forecast of the concrete football results (1:0, 2:1, 1:4 etc.) and their probability of occurrence, shows a rather high expected deviation (of 1.91, which is higher than the mostly quoted one of about 1.83), but also from this a rather high deviation with the 1.98 arrived. This deviation (which now does not seem completely out of the world) also confirms that there are many surprises.
14) Preview of the 24th matchday
Note: The computer uses a specially developed – of course explainable and highly logical – algorithm to calculate the goal expectations (and the individually maintained home advantage not shown here) to these goal expectations. These in turn are offset against the probabilities of occurrence, in the past by simulation, today long since by a function derived from the simulation results). These goal expectancy values have also long since proved to be competitive in goal number betting on the betting market.
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
Wolfsburg Gladbach 1.99 1.28 3.27
Kaiserslautern HSV 1.23 1.47 2.69
Schalke 04 Nuremberg 1.55 0.94 2.49
St. Pauli Hannover 1.36 1.30 2.66
Hoffenheim Mainz 1.78 1.30 3.07
FC Cologne Freiburg 1.49 1.31 2.80
FC Bayern Dortmund 1.52 1.12 2.64
Frankfurt Stuttgart 1.43 1.43 2.86
Bremen Leverkusen 1.38 1.84 3.22
13.72 11.99 25.72
Expected goal total Expected goal average
25.72 2.86 Now we have to interpret another phenomenon: contrary to the announcement, the expected goal average is even lower than before. This is due to a very special circumstance: look at the Dortmund vs. Bayern pairing. They are the league’s goal-scorers. But for this matchday, they clash. Of course, the fan would love to see the spectacle, but a typical effect (purely mathematical, but supported by reality) that is also frequently observed for European Cup matches applies here: the teams actually neutralise each other more than the fan might like. When a strong offence meets a strong defence, well, where is the goal festival supposed to come from?
It’s a game that is below league average in expected goal total. That kind of thing only happens when these two meet. All in all, it ensures that fewer goals than usual are expected for the whole match day, because the rest of the games are “normal”. High-scoring Werder – Leverkusen (Werder’s defensive weakness), Wolfsburg against Gladbach (Gladbach’s defensive weakness), low-scoring Schalke against Nuremberg, on the other hand, as neither allows much.
The determination Pairing 1 X 2
Wolfsburg Gladbach 53.89% 21.74% 24.37% 39.71%
Kaiserslautern HSV 31.65% 25.69% 42.66% 34.81%
Schalke 04 Nuremberg 51.56% 25.58% 22.86% 38.35%
St. Pauli Hannover 38.31% 26.07% 35.62% 34.16%
Hoffenheim Mainz 48.69% 23.29% 28.02% 36.98%
FC Cologne Freiburg 41.48% 25.20% 33.32% 34.66%
FC Bayern Dortmund 46.42% 25.60% 27.98% 35.93%
Frankfurt Stuttgart 37.47% 25.03% 37.50% 34.37%
Bremen Leverkusen 28.79% 22.73% 48.48% 36.96%
3.84 2.18 3.98 3.28
average expected determination: 36.44%For the matchday as a whole, the top pairing also makes for a much flatter, i.e. less favourite, alignment. Only logical, because otherwise they are clear favourites in almost every game and these two pairings are omitted for the matchday. Again, the rest is normal.
The fair odds:
Pairing 1 X 2
Wolfsburg Gladbach 1.86 4.60 4.10
Kaiserslautern HSV 3.16 3.89 2.34
Schalke 04 Nuremberg 1.94 3.91 4.37
St. Pauli Hannover 2.61 3.84 2.81
Hoffenheim Mainz 2.05 4.29 3.57
FC Cologne Freiburg 2.41 3.97 3.00
FC Bayern Dortmund 2.15 3.91 3.57
Frankfurt Stuttgart 2.67 4.00 2.67
Bremen Leverkusen 3.47 4.40 2.06
Again the offer to talk about the odds on the betting market. Certainly, one could also explicitly state the comparison here. This will also be done again at a later date, for today only this service.
15) Evaluation of the 23rd Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total Result DeviationMunich 1860 Augsburg 1.00 1.29 2.29 0 2 -1.00 0.71
Bochum Düsseldorf 1.54 0.95 2.50 2 0 0.46 -0.95
Ingolstad Greuther Fürth 0.98 1.32 2.29 0 2 -0.98 0.68
Duisburg Union 1.80 0.84 2.65 0 1 -1.80 0.16
SC Paderborn Aachen 1.40 1.23 2.63 1 3 -0.40 1.77
Erzgebirge Aue Bielefeld 1.72 0.68 2.40 3 0 1.28 -0.68
Osnabrück Oberhausen 1.74 1.05 2.80 3 1 1.26 -0.05
FSV Frankfurt Karlsruhe 2.05 1.14 3.19 1 2 -1.05 0.86
Hertha Cottbus 2.23 1.11 3.34 2 2 -0.23 0.89
14.46 9.62 24.08 12 13 -2.46 3.38
Expected Goal Total Expected Goal Total: Goal Total: Goal Total
24.08 2.68 25 2.778
ø Goal difference: 1.69 Very briefly, the evaluation of the second league matchday:
There were too many away victories in this league, which can be seen not only in the goals. There was only one draw, which is of course also less than expected. The expected goal average was just exceeded. The average goal deviation is below the long-term average, which speaks for very normal results, so to speak, without any particular outliers as far as the number of goals is concerned.
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Augsburg 28.91% 27.77% 43.32% 34.84%
Bochum Düsseldorf 51.25% 25.40% 23.35% 38.17%
Ingolstad Greuther Fürth 27.71% 27.63% 44.66% 35.26%
Duisburg Union 60.11% 22.62% 17.27% 44.23%
SC Paderborn Aachen 41.10% 25.81% 33.09% 34.50%
Erzgebirge Aue Bielefeld 62.34% 23.18% 14.48% 46.33%
Osnabrück Oberhausen 53.69% 23.44% 22.87% 39.55%
FSV Frankfurt Karlsruhe 58.38% 20.95% 20.66% 42.75%
Hertha Cottbus 62.80% 19.38% 17.82% 46.37%
4.46 2.16 2.38 3.62
average expected determination: 40.22% Just to remind you the values from last week’s preview.
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Augsburg 28.91% 27.77% 43.32% 43.32%
Bochum Düsseldorf 51.25% 25.40% 23.35% 51.25%
Ingolstad Greuther Fürth 27.71% 27.63% 44.66% 44.66%
Duisburg Union 60.11% 22.62% 17.27% 17.27%
SC Paderborn Aachen 41.10% 25.81% 33.09% 33.09%
Erzgebirge Aue Bielefeld 62.34% 23.18% 14.48% 62.34%
Osnabrück Oberhausen 53.69% 23.44% 22.87% 53.69%
FSV Frankfurt Karlsruhe 58.38% 20.95% 20.66% 20.66%
Hertha Cottbus 62.80% 19.38% 17.82% 19.38%
4.46 2.16 2.38 3.46
Average expected commitment: 38.41 As you can see, the surprises outweighed the surprises here. Of course, Hertha stands out as the highest favourite, who failed to live up to their expectation in the derby. Likewise, Union caused a huge surprise with their win in Duisburg. The defeat of FSV Frankfurt, on the other hand, which is a surprise by the numbers, is a typical case that would actually have corresponded to a Wolfsburg victory in Freiburg by design: Freiburg is satisfied, has enough points, Wolfsburg “must” – and Wolfsburg does. That’s what happened in Frankfurt, but the pictures told a slightly different story for a long time. So with KSC, at least only the luckier team won, not the better one. Nevertheless, the discrepancies remain within bounds.
16) Preview of the 24th Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away TotalCottbus FSV Frankfurt 1.95 1.13 3.09
Union München 1860 1.31 1.00 2.30
Oberhausen Duisburg 0.93 1.44 2.38
Bielefeld SC Paderborn 0.98 1.43 2.41
Aachen Hertha 1.47 1.70 3.16
Karlsruhe Ingolstad 1.75 1.18 2.93
Greuther Fürth Bochum 1.16 0.94 2.11
Düsseldorf Osnabrück 2.09 0.93 3.02
Augsburg Erzgebirge Aue 1.87 0.64 2.50
13.51 10.39 23.90
Expected goal total Expected goal average
23.90 2.66
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Cottbus FSV Frankfurt 56.71% 21.53% 21.76% 41.53%
Union Munich 1860 44.01% 27.34% 28.65% 35.05%
Oberhausen Duisburg 24.57% 26.24% 49.19% 37.12%
Bielefeld SC Paderborn 26.09% 26.24% 47.68% 36.42%
Aachen Hertha 33.59% 22.96% 43.45% 35.43%
Karlsruhe Ingolstad 50.88% 23.15% 25.97% 37.99%
Greuther Fürth Bochum 41.04% 29.09% 29.86% 34.23%
Düsseldorf Osnabrück 64.41% 19.83% 15.76% 47.90%
Augsburg Erzgebirge Aue 66.95% 21.01% 12.04% 50.69%
4.08 2.17 2.74 3.56
Average expected fixing: 39.60% Pairing 1 X 2
Cottbus FSV Frankfurt 1.76 4.64 4.60
Union Munich 1860 2.27 3.66 3.49
Oberhausen Duisburg 4.07 3.81 2.03
Bielefeld SC Paderborn 3.83 3.81 2.10
Aachen Hertha 2.98 4.36 2.30
Karlsruhe Ingolstad 1.97 4.32 3.85
Greuther Fürth Bochum 2.44 3.44 3.35
Düsseldorf Osnabrück 1.55 5.04 6.34
Augsburg Erzgebirge Aue 1.49 4.76 8.31
As a further service, here is a preview of the 24th matchday, without too many comments. These could of course be included in response to special requests or expressions of interest.
That’s it for today. Have fun watching the coming match day, perhaps taking a closer look at one or the other of the effects explained here, including them?
