GoalEWPreview33

Goal expectations preview for the 33rd matchday

At this point we would like to preview the goal expectations. These are calculated according to an algorithm explained in detail elsewhere. These goal expectations are the basis for the assessments of the matches in terms of the chances for 1 – X – 2 in probabilities, and derived from this (through inverse value formation) the fair odds. On the betting market, however, the over/under is traded more and more. This means that you can bet on many or few goals. As a rule, three goals or more are “many” (and you win an “over” value), and less than three are few (and you win the “under” or lose the “over”).

      Home Away Total Performance

Hoffenheim	Nürnberg	1.28	0.89	2.17	0.22
Kaiserslautern	Dortmund	0.46	2.16	2.62	0.24
Leverkusen	Hannover	1.74	1.06	2.80	-0.05
Schalke 04	Hertha	2.58	0.96	3.54	0.38
FC Bayern	Stuttgart	2.51	0.91	3.42	0.19
Freiburg	FC Köln	1.73	1.23	2.96	-0.25
Gladbach	Augsburg	1.61	0.74	2.36	-0.22
HSV	Mainz	1.43	1.34	2.77	-0.14
Wolfsburg	Werder	1.81	1.29	3.10	0.11
		15.15	10.59	25.74

    Expected goal total Expected goal average       
    25.74 2.86      

Despite the extreme goal drought on matchday 32, the computer now goes up a bit with the expected value. Well, as mentioned, the special pairings make such things possible.

In general, we would like to remind you that the computer performs quite well and reliably during the course of the season, but that you should not pay too much attention to it at the end of the season, especially on the last two match days in terms of goal expectations.

So an “under” in Hoffenheim is clearly indicated, and it also sounds downright logical, since both were stingy with goals, but there is not too much at stake in this pairing, so one would rather advise against it. Only the last, so particularly low-scoring matchday could elicit a euro or two from the true enthusiast – in the vague hope of procreation, of course.

In the case of Kaiserslautern, the “under” may not even be indicated due to the performance, but even if it were, it would not be recommended here.

Furthermore, the “under” in Gladbach is not so good to recommend – despite the playing performance — because it is the penultimate matchday. However, since both teams are still playing for something, the passionate bettor might get carried away here.

With Schalke, Bayern and Wolfsburg, on the other hand, one would very well advise an “over”, if it is indicated. Schalke will say goodbye to Raul – surely with the intention of a small celebration. It almost doesn’t matter how Hertha do about it. But a point will hardly be enough. Bayern also wants to say goodbye at home in a positive way and Stuttgart is a welcome opponent for that, who will be happy to play along, and in Wolfsburg there would be no reason to doubt goals either, even if both have had a bit of a loading jam lately. If anything, Werder have something at stake, Wolfsburg play for their own fans, so a good “over”.

The expected tie

Paarung		1	X	2
Hoffenheim	Nürnberg	45.29%	29.10%	25.61%		35.54%
Kaiserslautern	Dortmund	6.55%	16.62%	76.83%		62.23%
Leverkusen	Hannover	53.14%	24.07%	22.79%		39.23%
Schalke 04	Hertha	72.12%	16.10%	11.78%		56.00%
FC Bayern	Stuttgart	71.95%	16.44%	11.61%		55.81%
Freiburg	FC Köln	48.82%	24.13%	27.06%		36.97%
Gladbach	Augsburg	57.95%	25.04%	17.02%		42.74%
HSV	Mainz	38.83%	26.14%	35.03%		34.18%
Wolfsburg	Werder	49.43%	23.44%	27.13%		37.29%
		4.44	2.01	2.55		4.00

    Average expected fixing: 44.44%

Another clear favourite matchday this time – according to the computer – which is of course down to Dortmund, Bayern and Schalke, although at least two of them have nothing at stake. How and whether the computer is right will be seen at the weekend, but the values have already been adjusted somewhat in part so that as little as possible error occurs in the overall balance.