GoalEWPreview34

Goal expectations preview for matchday 34

At this point we would like to preview the goal expectations. These are calculated according to an algorithm explained in detail elsewhere. These goal expectations are the basis for the assessments of the matches in terms of the chances for 1 – X – 2 in probabilities, and derived from this (through inverse value formation) the fair odds. On the betting market, however, the over/under is traded more and more. This means that you can bet on many or few goals. As a rule, three goals or more are “many” (and you win an “over” value), and less than three are few (and you win the “under” or lose the “over”).

      Home Away Total Performance

Hannover	Kaiserslautern	1.80	0.66	2.46	0.14
Hertha	Hoffenheim	1.43	1.42	2.85	0.35
Nürnberg	Leverkusen	1.26	1.30	2.56	0.13
FC Köln	FC Bayern	0.93	1.98	2.91	0.04
Mainz	Gladbach	1.20	1.09	2.29	-0.35
Augsburg	HSV	1.26	0.97	2.24	-0.26
Dortmund	Freiburg	2.61	0.76	3.38	0.34
Werder	Schalke 04	1.53	1.69	3.22	0.16
Stuttgart	Wolfsburg	2.04	1.34	3.38	0.26
		14.08	11.21	25.29

    Expected goal total Expected goal average       
    25.29 2.81      

If anything is advised, it is “over” games, although even on matchday 33 the statement that all teams would play pretty much “normally” was quite accurate. Nevertheless: the last matchday really does have somewhat different laws once again. In many previous years, the expected value was clearly exceeded. Here are some statistics:

Statistics of the last 10 years 1st division last matchday

Matches Hsiege Drais Asiege Htore Atore Heimvort

arrived 90 44 17 29 176 131 1.147
expected 90 43.15 21.29 25.54 148.1 105.7 1.167
abs Deviation 0 0.85 -4.29 3.46 27.90 25.30 -0.02
rel. deviation 0 1.93% -25.24% 11.93% 15.85% 19.31% -1.79%

    Determination expected Determination received
    41.20% 41.86%       

    ø Goal deviation ø Goal deviation expected
    1.92 1.87       

As can be seen, the expected goals were exceeded quite significantly in order to increase the number of highligh… Home teams and away teams did not take much away from each other. Both score too much. The average number of goals scored over this period (to the last matchday) was 3.41, the computer, not adjusted to this, had expected 2.82. All other values are quite good, as they could only be. Only the draws have come a little too few, which is a logical consequence: more goals – fewer draws, since it becomes less likely to score the same number of goals if more are scored overall.

The goal difference is also within bounds, even if it is slightly higher than expected, again as a logical consequence of too many goals. Likewise, the expected determination has been kept fairly well.

So perhaps an “over” in Dortmund would offer itself in terms of bets, since the performance even plays along, but one should expect that the market recognises this and will not pay particularly good odds on such an “over”. The rest, as I said, look for overs, if any, according to the above statistics, however, the market will follow suit here too, there will be no bargains.

The expected determination

Paarung		1	X	2
Hannover	Kaiserslautern	64.77%	22.30%	12.92%		48.60%
Hertha	Hoffenheim	37.42%	25.68%	36.90%		34.21%
Nürnberg	Leverkusen	35.54%	27.27%	37.19%		33.90%
FC Köln	FC Bayern	17.03%	21.46%	61.51%		45.34%
Mainz	Gladbach	38.18%	28.99%	32.83%		33.76%
Augsburg	HSV	42.68%	28.96%	28.36%		34.65%
Dortmund	Freiburg	76.80%	14.61%	8.59%		61.86%
Werder	Schalke 04	34.75%	23.75%	41.50%		34.94%
Stuttgart	Wolfsburg	53.56%	21.66%	24.77%		39.52%
		4.01	2.15	2.85		3.67

    average expected fixing: 40.75%

All figures given here today should be taken with a grain of salt, given the occasion. The teams are not all guaranteed to do their utmost to confirm predictions as well as possible, to say the least. This also applies to the coaches, of course. To reassure on the other hand: in recent years there have been more and more tendencies to play (and set up beforehand) properly right up to the last matchday. For example, Hertha’s former coach and Hoffenheim’s new coach Markus Babbel has announced that he will give Hertha an honest match and not give anything away. One is inclined to believe him…