Goal expectations preview for matchday 31
At this point we would like to preview the goal expectations. These are calculated according to an algorithm explained in detail elsewhere. These goal expectations are the basis for the assessments of the matches in terms of the chances for 1 – X – 2 in probabilities, and derived from this (through inverse value formation) the fair odds. On the betting market, however, the over/under is traded more and more. This means that you can bet on many or few goals. As a rule, three goals or more are “many” (and you win an “over” value), and less than three are few (and you win the “under” or lose the “over”).
Home Away Total Performance| Stuttgart | Werder | 2.15 | 1.23 | 3.38 | -0.03 |
| Kaiserslautern | Nürnberg | 0.84 | 1.07 | 1.91 | -0.02 |
| Schalke 04 | Dortmund | 1.16 | 1.45 | 2.61 | 0.38 |
| Wolfsburg | Augsburg | 1.74 | 0.99 | 2.73 | 0.18 |
| HSV | Hannover | 1.31 | 1.34 | 2.66 | 0.23 |
| Leverkusen | Hertha | 2.06 | 0.99 | 3.05 | -0.03 |
| FC Bayern | Mainz | 2.61 | 0.73 | 3.34 | 0.35 |
| Gladbach | FC Köln | 2.10 | 0.87 | 2.96 | -0.12 |
| Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 1.48 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 0.26 |
| 15.44 | 10.01 | 25.45 |
Expected goal total Expected goal average
25.45 2.83 The Expected Determination
The expected fixing
| Pairing | 1 | X | 2 | |||
| Stuttgart | Werder | 58.23% | 20.51% | 21.26% | 42.64% | |
| Kaiserslautern | Nürnberg | 28.02% | 31.47% | 40.50% | 34.16% | |
| Schalke 04 | Dortmund | 30.18% | 26.08% | 43.74% | 35.04% | |
| Wolfsburg | Augsburg | 54.99% | 23.68% | 21.34% | 40.39% | |
| HSV | Hannover | 36.26% | 26.16% | 37.58% | 34.11% | |
| Leverkusen | Hertha | 61.91% | 20.65% | 17.44% | 45.63% | |
| FC Bayern | Mainz | 77.62% | 14.29% | 8.09% | 62.95% | |
| Gladbach | FC Köln | 65.68% | 19.83% | 14.49% | 49.17% | |
| Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 40.75% | 25.22% | 34.03% | 34.55% | |
| 4.54 | 2.08 | 2.38 | 3.79 |
average expected fixing: 42.07%