The descent question
Note: here are the results of the simulation of 5000 runs. The 233.33% total is explained like this: there are TWO direct relegations, each ending up 100% relegated, making 200%. The team that finishes in the relegation spot (16) is generally considered a 2 to 1 favourite against the second division third place team. This gives a further 33.33%. The practical resulting pairing will certainly have different percentages than assumed, but this would both increase complexity and decrease transparency.
| Mannschaft | Direkter Abstieg (Platz 17 oder 18) | Abstieg per Relegation | Insgesamt | |
| 1 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 72.14% | 9.26% | 81.40% |
| 3 | 1.FC Köln | 27.86% | 23.71% | 51.57% |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.29% |
| 5 | Hamburger SV | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.08% |
| 200.00% | 33.33% | 233.33% |
For Augsburg, of course, it was a sensation to get this far. Most of the time it is indeed the case that a lack of pressure of expectation – the spectators are grateful for every Bundesliga game and celebrate every goal, regardless of the overall score – can have a liberating effect, in contrast to the heavyweights, who also regularly sack coaches with hopefully ever decreasing success, because this measure seems ridiculous to this writer. “We didn’t want to be accused of not having tried everything.” Silly, short-sighted, ill-considered. The media always ensure these (then really inevitable) dismissals with their stupid questions. Who does it benefit? Oh yes, the coaches on the merry-go-round who currently have no gondola….
According to the rules of table construction, there will ALWAYS be a team that is 18th and one that is 17th. If it always helped to sack the coach, then yes, you would have to abolish those places. How would that work? Quite simple: two teams less in the league – and no relegation.
No, you should just accept that it happens from time to time. If you equate it to the end of the world, then it’s no wonder the fans are getting more and more aggressive. They seem to make demands for success. But the media representatives don’t give up either. They are constantly asked about “season goals” – only to break the baton on whoever strays from these forcibly announced ones. The next opponent is always the hardest and to concentrate on this game, to be as prepared as possible and to try to get Fortuna on your side and so on. Then if it’s not enough – tough luck and “next time better”.
“No, you dreamer, things work differently in professional sport.” And in such a way that no one is relegated anymore if everyone does everything right?
The change in chances with regard to relegation due to the results of match day 32
| Mannschaft | Direkter Abstieg (Platz 17 oder 18) | Abstieg per Relegation | Insgesamt | |
| 1 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 72.14% | 9.26% | 81.40% |
| 3 | 1.FC Köln | 27.86% | 23.71% | 51.57% |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.29% |
| 5 | Hamburger SV | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.08% |
| 200.00% | 33.33% | 233.33% |
With a 1:1 as the big winner? Well, their rivals lost the all-important home game, which would have brought something for Cologne even with their own loss, because Hertha are behind and most of their previously still quite good chances (of staying in the class) were recruited from a win in the game, because it was quite likely. Augsburg and HSV also benefited from Hertha’s defeat.
The development of chances in the relegation question since the beginning of the season
Now the Lauter line is not only scratching, it has arrived, despite a win of their own. For the few per thousand, the competition would now have had to cooperate. Hertha also went quite dramatically towards 100%, the 80 have been exceeded in any case.
