The descent question
Note: here are the results of the simulation of 5000 runs. The 233.33% total is explained like this: there are TWO direct relegated teams, each of which ends up 100% relegated, making 200%. The team that finishes in the relegation spot (16) is generally considered a 2 to 1 favourite against the second division third place team. This gives a further 33.33%. The practical resulting pairing will certainly have different percentages than assumed, but this would both increase complexity and decrease transparency.
|Mannschaft||Direkter Abstieg (Platz 17 oder 18)||Abstieg per Relegation||Insgesamt|
Here you can see (as an author above all) the effect of the little nonsense of committing to 33.33% for relegation if the relegation place is reached. This way, one no longer sees how likely one of the two teams still in the race is to reach this place (without having to resort to higher mathematics).
To spare the reader this task, here are the values: Hertha reaches 16th place at 23.92% and Cologne at 76.08%. On the one hand, Cologne has the chance that Hertha will not win (this can be read under betting recommendations or matchday preview), and in the case that this does not happen, i.e. Hertha does win, Cologne has its own chance of knocking out Bayern single-handedly. This is how these values are arrived at.
How good the computer is in such matters is of course – like so many other things – not to be definitively clarified. But the fact is that a few adjustments have already been made to make the values a little more realistic. Otherwise, the value for Hertha would be even less favourable. The reasons for the adjustment are quite diverse, but experience has taught that it should definitely be done. You can also put it this way: the computer is simply NOT suitable for such special constellations. The parameter “motivation” is an intuitive one, but it is a highly relevant one.
My own assessment – which can also be read elsewhere – is that Hoffenheim (under coach Babbel, who was kicked out of Hertha in the winter break) will not give anything away, so it should be a fairly normal game, but the players are not Babbel himself, they are only set up and adjusted by him. They have to deliver their performance on the pitch, and minor motivation problems could still occur despite the coach’s euphoria. Therefore, the adjustment makes sense.
On the other hand, there is the small problem with this game – last seen in the one against Kaiserslautern — that Hertha gets lame legs from the spectators’ expectations (which have long since become demands), from the fear of failing again and having no credit at all. So, once again, there will be no euphoria and enthusiasm in the stands, but rather this anxiety that can easily turn into horror. Above all, it is typically accompanied in Berlin by an imminent turning away from one’s own team.
A few similar things apply to the game in Cologne. Bayern will certainly not go there with the motivation to sink Cologne at all costs, but on the other hand they do not want to be accused of distorting the competition with a weak performance. On the other hand, the spectators in Cologne will not go there with such high expectations to demand a victory at all costs.
The change in chances with regard to relegation due to the results of the 33rd match day
It is actually highly exciting to see what has really happened as a result of these two defeats of the competitors. The small percentages of Augsburg and HSV have disappeared, that is clear, since they even contributed themselves with the goalless draws. Hertha, however, only lost 2.65%, while Cologne won 2.29%. These smaller values are clearly due to the fact that the results did not differ. They are treading water. Nevertheless, the one behind should actually have lost one more game because of the shortening of the distance to now?
That this is not the case is due to the difficulty of the tasks. Hertha lost at Schalke, where they were far clearer underdogs than Cologne were at Freiburg. In this respect, the smaller shift in the values is understandable.
The development of chances in the relegation question since the beginning of the season
For the sake of completeness, here is the last chart in this category. You can just see quite nicely how suddenly all the other lines converge rapidly towards 0 from matchday 27 onwards.