The point expectations and the deviations
Team Name Point expectation Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 41.37 | 51 | 9.63 | 9.63 |
2 | FC Schalke 04 | 45.46 | 54 | 8.54 | 8.54 |
3 | Borussia Dortmund | 57.79 | 63 | 5.21 | 5.21 |
4 | Hannover 96 | 38.22 | 41 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
5 | FC Augsburg | 27.29 | 30 | 2.71 | 2.71 |
6 | VfL Wolfsburg | 37.86 | 40 | 2.14 | 2.14 |
7 | SC Freiburg | 29.72 | 31 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
8 | VfB Stuttgart | 39.89 | 40 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
9 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 31.60 | 31 | -0.60 | 0.60 |
10 | TSG Hoffenheim | 35.65 | 34 | -1.65 | 1.65 |
11 | FC Bayern München | 61.74 | 60 | -1.74 | 1.74 |
12 | Werder Bremen | 42.29 | 40 | -2.29 | 2.29 |
13 | 1.FC Köln | 30.92 | 28 | -2.92 | 2.92 |
14 | FSV Mainz 05 | 36.56 | 33 | -3.56 | 3.56 |
15 | Hamburger SV | 33.82 | 30 | -3.82 | 3.82 |
16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 44.06 | 40 | -4.06 | 4.06 |
17 | Hertha BSC | 33.94 | 26 | -7.94 | 7.94 |
18 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 29.85 | 20 | -9.85 | 9.85 |
-6.04 | 70.85 | ||||
ø Deviation 3.94
Goal expectations and deviations
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 39.24 | 41 | 35.40 | 20 | 17.17 |
2 | FC Schalke 04 | 44.58 | 61 | 34.04 | 35 | 15.45 |
3 | Borussia Dortmund | 51.82 | 63 | 22.38 | 21 | 12.56 |
4 | FC Bayern München | 61.96 | 67 | 23.64 | 18 | 10.68 |
5 | VfB Stuttgart | 43.36 | 48 | 41.73 | 38 | 8.37 |
6 | FC Augsburg | 26.44 | 30 | 43.07 | 42 | 4.63 |
7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 38.28 | 42 | 41.86 | 44 | 1.58 |
8 | SC Freiburg | 33.73 | 37 | 48.65 | 53 | -1.07 |
9 | Hannover 96 | 37.85 | 37 | 38.73 | 39 | -1.12 |
10 | TSG Hoffenheim | 35.62 | 32 | 40.54 | 39 | -2.08 |
11 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 31.59 | 25 | 42.55 | 39 | -3.04 |
12 | VfL Wolfsburg | 38.88 | 40 | 40.99 | 49 | -6.89 |
13 | Bayer Leverkusen | 44.39 | 39 | 36.31 | 38 | -7.08 |
14 | Werder Bremen | 45.58 | 41 | 40.48 | 43 | -7.10 |
15 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 29.84 | 17 | 43.19 | 39 | -8.65 |
16 | 1.FC Köln | 36.62 | 35 | 50.43 | 58 | -9.19 |
17 | Hamburger SV | 36.50 | 32 | 44.56 | 50 | -9.94 |
18 | Hertha BSC | 35.78 | 30 | 43.51 | 52 | -14.27 |
712.07 | 717 | 712.07 | 717 | 0.00 |
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 7.83
2.83 2.85
Here is a very similar picture. If you look for differences to the points deviation table, you will find them for example with Wolfsburg, who continue to have a very poor goal difference. Bayern may also surprise you in 4th place, however you understand it well when you see their outstanding goal difference.
Lautern on 14, which they owe to their few goals conceded. Of course, this shows that they also have the level for the Bundesliga. But someone has to get hit.