The score expectations and the deviations
This section measures the deviations that the teams have achieved from their expectations. The expectations are based on the values of the computer, which converts the chances for 1 – X – 2 calculated for all games into an expectation of points in the form of probability of a win * 3 + probability of a draw * 1. Of course, these expectations cannot be determined objectively, but rather the computer values. Nevertheless, there are good indications of which team has performed above its expectation and which below. The teams are sorted by greatest positive surprise to greatest negative surprise.
A comparison with other top leagues is also carried out regularly, which shows the average deviation in the comparison.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 FC Schalke 04 47.58 57 9.42 9.42
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 43.54 52 8.46 8.46
3 Borussia Dortmund 59.77 66 6.23 6.23
4 FC Augsburg 27.54 30 2.46 2.46
5 Hannover 96 38.90 41 2.10 2.10
6 VfB Stuttgart 41.61 43 1.39 1.39
7 VfL Wolfsburg 38.65 40 1.35 1.35
8 SC Freiburg 31.38 32 0.62 0.62
9 TSG Hoffenheim 37.23 37 -0.23 0.23
10 1.FC Nürnberg 32.65 32 -0.65 0.65
11 FC Bayern Munich 64.37 63 -1.37 1.37
12 Werder Bremen 43.78 41 -2.78 2.78
13 1.FC Köln 32.20 29 -3.20 3.20
14 Hamburger SV 35.08 31 -4.08 4.08
15 Bayer Leverkusen 45.55 41 -4.55 4.55
16 FSV Mainz 05 37.63 33 -4.63 4.63
17 Hertha BSC 34.57 27 -7.57 7.57
18 1.FC Kaiserslautern 30.99 20 -10.99 10.99
-8.00 72.09
ø Deviation 4.01
With this matchday, Gladbach was relieved of its previous top position by Schalke! Understandable, because they have maintained the high level, which Gladbach has lost a little bit in the last games.
At the back, however, the last two in the table, Lautern and Hertha, are gradually becoming clear and also understandable. Mainz certainly surprised us a little with the negative deviation, although you can see just how good the computer thought this team was. Rightly so, in a way. Leverkusen is less surprising with its unfavourable ranking, but the deviation is generally quite small. 4.55 points too few simply means that they would have to turn a defeat into a win and a defeat into a draw and they would almost be there.
The goal expectations and the deviations
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 FC Schalke 04 46.64 64 34.95 35 17.31
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 41.25 41 36.22 20 15.97
3 Borussia Dortmund 53.64 66 23.31 22 13.67
4 VfB Stuttgart 45.24 52 43.09 39 10.85
5 FC Bayern Munich 64.70 69 24.15 19 9.44
6 FC Augsburg 26.95 31 45.81 44 5.86
7 FSV Mainz 05 39.64 43 43.74 48 -0.90
8 TSG Hoffenheim 36.85 34 41.48 40 -1.37
9 SC Freiburg 35.04 39 49.57 55 -1.48
10 1.FC Nürnberg 32.50 27 43.87 41 -2.64
11 Hannover 96 38.77 37 40.79 42 -2.97
12 Bayer Leverkusen 45.90 40 37.64 39 -7.26
13 Werder Bremen 47.22 42 41.96 44 -7.27
14 VfL Wolfsburg 39.80 41 42.80 52 -8.00
15 1.FC Köln 38.10 36 52.07 59 -9.03
16 1.FC Kaiserslautern 30.78 18 44.42 41 -9.36
17 Hamburger SV 37.83 33 46.07 51 -9.76
18 Hertha BSC 36.59 30 45.52 52 -13.07
737.45 743 737.45 743 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 8.12
2.83 2.85
Changing of the guard in goal expectations as well. Schalke again with a clear victory, while Gladbach only played 0-0, against the even weaker team compared to Hannover. Dortmund, Stuttgart and even Bayern (with the excellent difference) follow in the places. Hertha at the very back and Lautern holding on to the relegation place, so to speak- namely cited again and again their attacking weakness — so the attempt to justify the last place — -but not their defensive performance just as positively highlighted. They conceded almost 14 goals less than expected. That is as good as top (only Gladbach better).