PktGateDownAfter27

The point expectations and the deviations

	Team Name	Point expectation	Points scored	Deviation	Deviation absolute
1	Borussia Mönchengladbach	40.07	51	10.93	10.93
2	FC Schalke 04	43.86	53	9.14	9.14
3	Borussia Dortmund	55.37	62	6.63	6.63
4	FC Augsburg	25.55	27	1.45	1.45
5	Hannover 96	36.81	38	1.19	1.19
6	VfL Wolfsburg	36.56	37	0.44	0.44
7	1.FC Nürnberg	30.96	31	0.04	0.04
8	VfB Stuttgart	39.47	39	-0.47	0.47
9	Werder Bremen	40.49	40	-0.49	0.49
10	SC Freiburg	28.94	28	-0.94	0.94
11	TSG Hoffenheim	34.50	33	-1.50	1.50
12	1.FC Köln	29.90	28	-1.90	1.90
13	Bayer Leverkusen	42.03	40	-2.03	2.03
14	FC Bayern München	59.59	57	-2.59	2.59
15	Hamburger SV	32.35	27	-5.35	5.35
16	FSV Mainz 05	35.60	30	-5.60	5.60
17	Hertha BSC	32.49	26	-6.49	6.49
18	1.FC Kaiserslautern	28.62	20	-8.62	8.62
				-6.15	65.79
				ø Deviation	3.65

This table sorts by the size of the deviation. Whoever has exceeded expectations the most is at 1, whoever has underperformed expectations the most is at 18. More detailed explanations will be given separately in future (they will not be repeated weekly).

Gladbach is the best and has been since the beginning of the season. They started with a win in Munich (which was predicted by the computer in the sense that a virtual bet was placed because the price offered was above the fair price; see the betting archive for more details). They were able to take this momentum with them and continue it throughout the season far beyond expectation.

On the one hand, this means – and perhaps everyone would go that far — that Gladbach are THE surprise team this season. On the other hand, someone could come along and claim that they had foreseen this (better). In other words: they were already in such a good position after 5 match days and had achieved a series of brilliant results, from that moment on (so the person could claim) this development could have been foreseen and they could have been lifted in the playing strength ranking, so that from that moment on they might have fulfilled exactly their expectation.

In this context, however, we must remember two things: a) there have already been quite a few surprise teams that landed pretty hard on the ground after a flight of fancy (some even had to bite the dust in the relegation grass despite an excellent start to the season) and b) if Gladbach had been better foreseen, there would now be another team in 1st place in the ranking about which the same statements could then be made. In other words: it will never be possible to predict everything exactly and it would not even be desirable. Apart from that – see the foreign comparison regarding the point expectation deviation – Germany (the 1st league) currently ranks last, which means that there are LESS surprises this season compared to abroad. And this could at the same time be reinterpreted to mean that the computer and its feeder (in the person of the author) know their trade best in this league. So large deviations can also indicate misjudgements.

Kaiserslautern are now also in 18th place in this table, which is immediately obvious: this negative series was not foreseeable, as good as some of their performances were (they were not worse than those of their competitors; one of them just gets hit with a bad series), now they are in 18th place by a long way – in both rankings.

Hertha’s position is also understandable in the same way. There were too many bad results for too long. However, the gap (and the distance) to the teams ahead of them is catchable. Mainz at 16 will certainly surprise. Only if you think about it carefully, it fits quite well, as you could simply expect a bit more from them (according to the computer). As you can see, they already expected 3 points more than Hertha, for example (35.60 compared to 32.49), which caused their quite clearly higher ranking before and during the season.

Bayern is far behind, but already with a rather small (and quickly bridgeable) negative deviation of only -2.59 points, which would already be overcome with a win instead of a defeat.

The goal expectations and the deviations

 Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation

1	Borussia Mönchengladbach	38.09	40	34.18	18	18.09
2	FC Schalke 04	43.08	60	32.86	34	15.78
3	Borussia Dortmund	49.35	59	21.65	17	14.30
4	FC Bayern München	60.07	66	22.89	18	10.82
5	VfB Stuttgart	42.62	44	39.26	34	6.64
6	FC Augsburg	24.79	28	41.94	41	4.15
7	Hannover 96	36.63	35	37.58	38	-2.05
8	FSV Mainz 05	37.07	39	40.01	44	-2.07
9	TSG Hoffenheim	34.45	31	39.05	38	-2.40
10	1.FC Nürnberg	30.84	25	40.66	38	-3.18
11	Werder Bremen	43.73	41	39.27	40	-3.45
12	Bayer Leverkusen	42.17	39	35.14	36	-4.03
13	SC Freiburg	32.56	35	46.44	53	-4.12
14	1.FC Kaiserslautern	28.83	17	42.02	38	-7.81
15	1.FC Köln	35.49	34	48.78	56	-8.72
16	VfL Wolfsburg	37.50	36	39.49	48	-10.00
17	Hamburger SV	35.33	31	43.55	50	-10.78
18	Hertha BSC	34.29	29	42.13	48	-11.15
		686.88	689	686.88	689	0.00
	Goals ø expected:	Goal ø scored:		ø Deviation	7.75
	2.83	2.84

Here is a very similar picture. If you look for differences to the points deviation table, you will find them for example with Wolfsburg, who continue to have a very poor goal difference. Bayern may also surprise you in 4th place, however you understand it well when you see their outstanding goal difference.

Lautern on 14, which they owe to their few goals conceded. Of course, you can see that they also have the level for the Bundesliga. But someone has to get hit.