PktGateDownAfter28

The point expectations and the deviations

 Team Name Point expectation Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute

1	Borussia Mönchengladbach	41.37	51	9.63	9.63
2	FC Schalke 04	45.46	54	8.54	8.54
3	Borussia Dortmund	57.79	63	5.21	5.21
4	Hannover 96	38.22	41	2.78	2.78
5	FC Augsburg	27.29	30	2.71	2.71
6	VfL Wolfsburg	37.86	40	2.14	2.14
7	SC Freiburg	29.72	31	1.28	1.28
8	VfB Stuttgart	39.89	40	0.11	0.11
9	1.FC Nürnberg	31.60	31	-0.60	0.60
10	TSG Hoffenheim	35.65	34	-1.65	1.65
11	FC Bayern München	61.74	60	-1.74	1.74
12	Werder Bremen	42.29	40	-2.29	2.29
13	1.FC Köln	30.92	28	-2.92	2.92
14	FSV Mainz 05	36.56	33	-3.56	3.56
15	Hamburger SV	33.82	30	-3.82	3.82
16	Bayer Leverkusen	44.06	40	-4.06	4.06
17	Hertha BSC	33.94	26	-7.94	7.94
18	1.FC Kaiserslautern	29.85	20	-9.85	9.85
				-6.04	70.85

            ø Deviation 3.94

Goal expectations and deviations

 Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation

1	Borussia Mönchengladbach	39.24	41	35.40	20	17.17
2	FC Schalke 04	44.58	61	34.04	35	15.45
3	Borussia Dortmund	51.82	63	22.38	21	12.56
4	FC Bayern München	61.96	67	23.64	18	10.68
5	VfB Stuttgart	43.36	48	41.73	38	8.37
6	FC Augsburg	26.44	30	43.07	42	4.63
7	FSV Mainz 05	38.28	42	41.86	44	1.58
8	SC Freiburg	33.73	37	48.65	53	-1.07
9	Hannover 96	37.85	37	38.73	39	-1.12
10	TSG Hoffenheim	35.62	32	40.54	39	-2.08
11	1.FC Nürnberg	31.59	25	42.55	39	-3.04
12	VfL Wolfsburg	38.88	40	40.99	49	-6.89
13	Bayer Leverkusen	44.39	39	36.31	38	-7.08
14	Werder Bremen	45.58	41	40.48	43	-7.10
15	1.FC Kaiserslautern	29.84	17	43.19	39	-8.65
16	1.FC Köln	36.62	35	50.43	58	-9.19
17	Hamburger SV	36.50	32	44.56	50	-9.94
18	Hertha BSC	35.78	30	43.51	52	-14.27
		712.07	717	712.07	717	0.00

Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 7.83
2.83 2.85               

Here is a very similar picture. If you look for differences to the points deviation table, you will find them for example with Wolfsburg, who continue to have a very poor goal difference. Bayern may also surprise you in 4th place, however you understand it well when you see their outstanding goal difference.

Lautern on 14, which they owe to their few goals conceded. Of course, this shows that they also have the level for the Bundesliga. But someone has to get hit.