1) Review of the matches
Results of the 22nd matchday
VfL Wolfsburg – Hamburger SV 0:1 (0:1)
Eintracht Frankfurt – Bayer Leverkusen 0:3 (0:2)
FC Bayern Munich – TSG Hoffenheim 4:0 (2:0)
VfB Stuttgart – 1. FC Nuremberg 1:4 (1:2)
FC St. Pauli – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:1 (1:1)
FC Schalke 04 – SC Freiburg 1:0 (0:0)
- FC Kaiserslautern – Borussia Dortmund 1:1 (0:0)
- FC Cologne – FSV Mainz 05 4:2 (2:1)
Werder Bremen – Hannover 96 1:1 (0:1)
General assessment:
Well, what did the match day bring. There were more goals than before, which is always fun (except for Mainz, Hoffenheim and Stutgart). Otherwise, numerous trends were confirmed, including the one that the problem children, who after so many match days are to be found at the bottom of the table, give no reason to believe that they don’t belong there. Wolfsburg, Stuttgart and Werder not only lost their games, but also disappointed their supporters for long stretches with tired football.
Schalke have barely managed to escape the danger zone, but are still nowhere near where they were expected to be. On the other hand, it has also been confirmed that temporary high-flyers, who really offer/offered great football over long stretches, are then gradually caught up by harsh reality. Apart from that, it seems as if, as soon as season goals are achieved, there is a slight loss of concentration and ambition, while rivals who are still far away from these goals go about their business with increasing zeal (which can be seen in the tackling alone) and this fact alone can be the deciding factor in football in otherwise very tight conditions. So Mainz, Freiburg, Hannover would be typical representatives of this kind, who also only scored one point overall.
Apart from that, it was also noticeable that Eintracht from Frankfurt, which was so successful in the first half of the season, simply cannot score any more goals, despite not even bad performances. Still without in the second half of the season and the relegation places are not far away.
The confusion in the table is not likely to be reduced by this matchday, the worry about a couple of traditional clubs is growing. And: should Dortmund really run out of steam on the home stretch? After all, Bayern, despite another setback last week, managed another convincing victory and Leverkusen also confirmed their ambitions with an away win.
Otherwise, the trend was again confirmed that the clearest penalties are refused recognition, while conversely – and this is indeed an expression of injustice – there is practically never one in which the verdict is unanimously “flayed” or “unjustified” in retrospect. Incidentally, the same injustice can be observed in all offside (mis)decisions, since a huge percentage of these are also to the disadvantage of the attackers, while there is almost never any question of an overlooked offside, at the very highest an absolutely rule-abiding one, which explicitly allows the cases of doubt to be interpreted in favour of the strikers.
So, like the recent examples with Bayern Munich’s handball at Werder, the penalty denied (again) for Werder last week against Marin, which was one beyond any doubt, one can now complete this list (with a few other examples as well, but here “only” these: ) with those in Kaiserslautern, when there should have been at least one for Dortmund, but also one for Lautern. What, please, is the justification of the impartial, the media? Should one really always refer to an “oversight”, while in other situations even non-fouls (namely those of the strikers) are always recognised very clearly and at long range? Won’t we notice one day that there is this clear tendency against situations favouring goals?
The psychological causes have long been “researched” (as long as there is no better explanation, but there is also a chapter with “proof techniques”) and bring the following insight to light: a goal that could come about with a decision favouring it (not giving offside, giving a penalty after all) changes the status quo in the game, i.e. often changes the tendency, while a decision not favouring it on the other hand maintains the tendency. For a change, intuition tells us, there must be very good and clear reasons. For staying the same, any terse argument (“yes, the striker stopped, therefore free kick for the defence”) will suffice, even if it is shown to be untenable in retrospect. By the way, one is not prosecuted for a decision that maintains a tendency, even if it is proven to be erroneous, while a decision that changes a tendency makes a lot of waves. So, as a referee, you are always “on the safe side” with decisions against the strikers, and intuitively, of course, you prefer to make them automatically.
If you just want to hear one more small example to prove this thesis: Where, please, does an expression like “a penalty is a courageous decision” come from? Alternatively, that expression: “That’s not enough for a penalty”, where one could effortlessly complete the other half-sentence with “…, although it was a foul.”
The games in detail:
VfL Wolfsburg – Hamburger SV 0:1 (0:1)
Eintracht Frankfurt – Bayer Leverkusen 0:3 (0:2)
FC Bayern München – TSG Hoffenheim 4:0 (2:0)
VfB Stuttgart – 1. FC Nuremberg 1:4 (1:2)
FC St. Pauli – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:1 (1:1)
FC Schalke 04 – SC Freiburg 1:0 (0:0)
- FC Kaiserslautern – Borussia Dortmund 1:1 (0:0)
- FC Cologne – FSV Mainz 05 4:2 (2:1)
Werder Bremen – Hannover 96 1:1 (0:1)
Since we as authors are committed to honesty here as well: The games were not followed in detail, as there was a weekend-long assignment in non-football areas, with a backgammon tournament on Saturday and a chess tournament on Sunday, so that only illustrated summaries were viewed, which may provide an incomplete picture, so that the individual critique should be omitted today.
2) The table situation
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 22 16 4 2 52 47 – 13 +34
2 Bayer Leverkusen 22 12 6 4 42 44 – 30 +14
3 FC Bayern Munich 22 11 6 5 39 46 – 26 +20
4 Hannover 96 22 12 2 8 38 30 – 31 -1
5 FSV Mainz 05 22 12 1 9 37 34 – 26 +8
6 SC Freiburg 22 10 4 8 34 29 – 29 +0
7 Hamburger SV 21 10 3 8 33 30 – 30 +0
8 TSG Hoffenheim 22 8 6 32 39 – 32 +7
9 1.FC Nürnberg 22 9 5 8 32 30 – 31 -1
10 FC Schalke 04 22 8 5 9 29 27 – 26 +1
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 22 8 3 11 27 24 – 29 -5
12 FC St. Pauli 21 7 4 10 25 26 – 35 -9
13 1.FC Köln 22 7 4 11 25 29 – 41 -12
14 Werder Bremen 22 6 6 10 24 28 – 44 -16
15 VfL Wolfsburg 22 5 8 9 23 26 – 31 -5
16 1.FC Kaiserslautern 22 6 5 11 23 32 – 38 -6
17 VfB Stuttgart 22 5 4 13 19 38 – 43 -5
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 22 4 4 14 16 32 – 56 -24
591 591 0
Total number of games 197
Goals ø 3.00
At least at the top of the table, three familiar names are gradually moving away. At the bottom of the table, however, the heavyweights are having far more trouble than they would like and quite a few of them have to seriously consider the possibility of one (or more) seasons in League 2.
So, while St. Pauli and Cologne pulled off brilliant victories, Stuttgart, Werder and Wolfsburg all failed to score in full.
3) The title question
Well, it remains amazing to observe that the spark of hope just won’t stop glowing, specifically related to serial winners Bayern Munich. The striving towards the 100%, which, the higher the score once, the more likely – and thus, colloquially “safer” – it should become, is interrupted again and again. Surely this time we have to reckon with a quite considerable loss at Dortmund?
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations (also given in the text below) and the final table is used to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities1 Borussia Dortmund 4774 95.48% 1
2 FC Bayern Munich 129 2.58% 38.76
3 Bayer Leverkusen 92 1.84% 54.34783
4 Hamburger SV 3 0.06% 1667
5 Hannover 96 2 0.04% 2500
5000 100.00%
Of course, 95.48% is still very respectable. It’s just that it’s less than before. Surely Bayern and Leverkusen also have an increase?
Chance changes compared to the previous week due to the results of Matchday 22
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championships in percent
FC Bayern Munich 79 1.58%
Bayer Leverkusen 55 1.10%
Hamburger SV 3 0.06%
Hannover 96 1 0.02%
SC Freiburg -1 -0.02%
TSG Hoffenheim -1 -0.02%
FSV Mainz 05 -2 -0.04%
Borussia Dortmund -134 -2.68%
0 0.00%
Bayern and Leverkusen thus split the percentages sold by Dortmund, with advantages for Bayern. HSV added a couple of fluke wins, Hannover’s one is certainly even more than fluke.
4) The title chances in development
The graph is not overly graphic, as everything is in the very high or very low range. On the other hand, you can see quite clearly that the Bayern curve is always twitching upwards. Do they still have an ace up their sleeve?
5) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
The movement, if a remarkable one has taken place, can of course only refer to gains of the heavyweights and losses of the outsiders, as well as the redistribution of some chances of the three (!?) top candidates.
The probability distribution for 2nd place after the 22nd matchday
Team Number of 2nd places 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
FC Bayern Munich 2402 48.04% 2.08
Bayer Leverkusen 2080 41.60% 2.40
Borussia Dortmund 203 4.06% 24.63
Hamburger SV 101 2.02% 49.50
FSV Mainz 05 88 1.76% 56.82
Hannover 96 80 1.60% 62.50
SC Freiburg 17 0.34% 294.12
TSG Hoffenheim 17 0.34% 294.12
FC Schalke 04 7 0.14% 714.29
1.FC Nuremberg 5 0.10% 1000.00
5000 100.00%
As you can see, Bayern has certainly set its sights on this season’s minimum target. Leverkusen, as current 2nd, of course remains much more than a serious contender. The rest (except Dortmund, for whom achieving the goal would currently be a disappointment) must be content with shrinking outsider chances, if necessary of course taking the small one by the scruff of the neck, which would mean: winning series of games.
The changes from the previous week:
Team win/loss absolute win/loss percentage
FSV Mainz 05 -258 -5.16%
Hannover 96 -97 -1.94%
TSG Hoffenheim -83 -1.66%
SC Freiburg -52 -1.04%
Hamburger SV -10 -0.20%
FC Schalke 04 -8 -0.16%
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 -0.02%
VfL Wolfsburg -1 -0.02%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 3 0.06%
FC Bayern Munich 117 2.34%
Borussia Dortmund 119 2.38%
Bayer Leverkusen 271 5.42%
0 0.00%
Here, sorted by losses, you can see that the outsiders Mainz, Hannover, but also Hoffenheim and Freiburg have fallen back mightily.
The biggest gain was made by Leverkusen. The reasoning is simple: Bayern has a higher gain for the race for first place – due to its higher playing strength. Leverkusen owes its gain in 2nd place to its own victory, as well as the slips of the other candidates.
Dortmund gains an unpleasant amount (from their point of view), even more than Bayern.
6) The relegation question
The movement here is, of course, mainly related to places 16 and 17, since the bottom of the table, Gladbach, lost the extremely important game at Pauli after the slightly questionable sending-off. The “new start” with Lucien Favre, for all the appreciation for this coach (and at the same time the expressed, very sincere, deep regret for Michael Frontzeck), cannot conjure up any chances. They are in the lower percentage range. Nevertheless, one can of course still hope or seize the chance with one’s own good performance, if it presents itself.
The distribution of the percentages for relegation
Note: There would also be a detailed breakdown of the individual places. Here, places 17 and 18 count as fully relegated (i.e. in total as 1, for relegated, otherwise the term is “direct relegation”), and a further third of relegated teams are added through the relegation, whereby the Bundesliga team is generally rated as 2/3 to 1/3 favourite. This makes the total number of relegated teams equal to 233.33%. In individual cases, of course, it would be different in reality. So if, for example, Hertha entered in 3rd place and St. Pauli in 16th, one could perhaps speak of a balanced pairing.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 94.06% 1.07% 95.13%
2 VfB Stuttgart 34.32% 6.47% 40.79%
3 FC St. Pauli 19.90% 5.45% 25.35%
4 1.FC Kaiserslautern 18.40% 5.48% 23.88%
5 1.FC Köln 12.60% 4.87% 17.47%
6 Werder Bremen 7.80% 3.42% 11.22%
7 VfL Wolfsburg 6.50% 2.83% 9.33%
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 5.88% 3.23% 9.11%
9 1.FC Nuremberg 0.24% 0.22% 0.46%
10 FC Schalke 04 0.20% 0.12% 0.32%
11 TSG Hoffenheim 0.06% 0.08% 0.14%
12 SC Freiburg 0.04% 0.04% 0.08%
13 Hamburger SV 0.00% 0.03% 0.03%
14 Hannover 96 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
15 FC Bayern Munich 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
17 Borussia Dortmund 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 FSV Mainz 05 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
It can be seen that while one place seems to have been reliably awarded, the second and possibly third relegation spots can now hardly be predicted, as the chances are very much equal. The uncertainty about the outcome is, so to speak, greatest with such a (balanced) distribution. The fact that Stuttgart has now risen to such a high level — which now makes the change of coach a “panic reaction” — certainly could not have been expected just like that. However, as is often quoted, it has been proven many times in recent years that you can fall quite quickly and quite deeply in this division (example: Hertha last season). It only indicates the high performance density again. However, the media are very much to blame, apparently knowing only one question after a defeat to the manager of the losing team: “How long will you hold on to the coach?” This one answers itself after the tenth question and, for the author at least, clearly proves that the fans are given the floor in this way (“You only need to vote against the coach, then he’ll automatically leave soon”) and that the players at the same time are given the alibi to possibly slack off in the balls, since a new one will be here soon anyway, and thus the wheel alone is set in motion, or rather one should call it the mill wheel. The qualities of the coaches are no longer under scrutiny and have no influence on decisions, continuity to achieve good results, a long-term concept? All this is prevented in this way. The unfortunate development that football is becoming a pure results sport (where in the end the achievement of a result, even an unfair one, no longer plays a role) is being encouraged in this way. In the absence of sufficient other exciting observations, the media only work on sensational reports of this kind, because they hope that this alone will increase their ratings or circulation. There would be enough exciting and entertaining things to report on the pitch, but above all emotional things, not just aggression (which, by the way, is fuelled by the injustices inherent in the game). Look there again! The fan will thank you for it!
The change in chances from the 21st to the 22nd matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances
1 1.FC Cologne -15.29%
2 FC St. Pauli -14.15%
3 1.FC Kaiserslautern -4.49%
4 1.FC Nuremberg -1.91%
5 FC Schalke 04 -0.38%
6 Hamburger SV -0.10%
7 FSV Mainz 05 -0.01%
8 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00%
9 Borussia Dortmund 0.00%
10 FC Bayern Munich 0.00%
11 Hannover 96 0.01%
12 SC Freiburg 0.07%
13 TSG Hoffenheim 0.09%
14 Werder Bremen 1.94%
15 Eintracht Frankfurt 3.15%
16 VfL Wolfsburg 5.53%
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.87%
18 VfB Stuttgart 18.68%
0.00%
Cologne and St. Pauli are clearly the big winners of the matchday, whereas Stuttgart are the big losers.
7) The relegation question in development
After all, you can see some pretty jagged movements here, each of which represents a very surprising result, so to speak. The last matchday probably had the most to offer in this respect, certainly partly responsible for the six-point game Pauli – Gladbach (with a winner).
8) The points expectations and the deviations
Explanation: for each match the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per match according to the formula probability of victory * 3 points + probability of draw * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with the expected ones, but the three-point rule forces an imbalance. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 Hannover 96 25.21 38 12.79 12.79
2 Borussia Dortmund 39.44 52 12.56 12.56
3 1.FC Nürnberg 23.79 32 8.21 8.21
4 SC Freiburg 27.14 34 6.86 6.86
5 FSV Mainz 05 30.32 37 6.68 6.68
6 Bayer Leverkusen 37.23 42 4.77 4.77
7 FC St. Pauli 22.47 25 2.53 2.53
8 1.FC Köln 23.71 25 1.29 1.29
9 Hamburger SV 31.89 33 1.11 1.11
10 TSG Hoffenheim 32.09 32 -0.09 0.09
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 27.16 27 -0.16 0.16
12 1.FC Kaiserslautern 24.29 23 -1.29 1.29
13 FC Bayern Munich 43.10 39 -4.10 4.10
14 FC Schalke 04 34.06 29 -5.06 5.06
15 Borussia Mönchengladbach 23.84 16 -7.84 7.84
16 VfL Wolfsburg 32.32 23 -9.32 9.32
17 Werder Bremen 33.76 24 -9.76 9.76
18 VfB Stuttgart 32.61 19 -13.61 13.61
5.56 108.04
ø Deviation 6.00A higher order has not returned, as the average deviation indicates (if you remember the previous week, otherwise read below). At the back, as one might expect, the three problem children mentioned earlier, all of whom were expected to be in the top half of the table – and at this point the computer is brazenly declared to go hand in hand with expert opinions — are cavorting at the bottom of the table and fighting for the relegation places If one wants to try to remember: surely one has never seen a picture like this before? Is it an emerging trend? Football as a daily business and results sport? Whoever wins is and remains good, regardless of fantasised market values and playing strengths? Who loses, loses so much self-confidence, the unrest, made by the media, prevents performance consistency?
Here again is the foreign comparison, in terms of the tension level indicated by this measure, this time including the change from the previous week:
League 1 ø Deviation Change from previous week.
Germany 6.00 0.18
Italy 4.34 0.21
Spain 3.88 0.13
France 3.20 -0.23
England 2.98 0.33
Except for France, the disarray has increased in all leagues (though the author must shamefully admit to a tiny programming error here, which minimally distorted the figures before and was “uncovered” by a small coincidence, but is now safely cleaned up). Nevertheless, it can be seen that a) Germany remains at the forefront in terms of this form of perceived excitement, and b) the fact that it all remains within bounds abroad means that this trend must at least be declared more improbable and that it may simply be a very unusual one for this season.
9) Goal expectations and their deviations
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. However, the goal average may show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Dortmund 38.93 47 24.57 13 19.65
2 1.FC Nürnberg 26.55 30 36.99 31 9.44
3 FSV Mainz 05 31.32 34 31.56 26 8.24
4 Hannover 96 27.65 30 35.86 31 7.21
5 SC Freiburg 29.36 29 34.55 29 5.19
6 TSG Hoffenheim 33.86 39 31.03 32 4.16
7 1.FC Kaiserslautern 27.36 32 37.31 38 3.95
8 Bayer Leverkusen 38.77 44 27.85 30 3.08
9 FC St. Pauli 24.61 26 34.74 35 1.12
10 FC Bayern Munich 41.42 46 21.23 26 -0.19
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 28.77 24 33.56 29 -0.21
12 1.FC Köln 26.76 29 37.59 41 -1.17
13 Hamburger SV 32.70 30 28.06 30 -4.64
14 FC Schalke 04 34.36 27 28.32 26 -5.04
15 VfL Wolfsburg 33.35 26 30.10 31 -8.25
16 VfB Stuttgart 35.61 38 32.19 43 -8.42
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 29.83 32 41.14 56 -12.69
18 Werder Bremen 36.16 28 30.73 44 -21.44
577.38 591 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 6.89
2.93 3.00 This statistic should not be missed, but it does not change much of what was said before. Only the “swap of places” between Werder and Stuttgart, which is still due to the differently aligned goal differences, is remarkable.
Dortmund are way ahead because their goal difference “fits”. Bayern already in 10th place and almost without a deficit, as they again came up with a clear victory.
Again, the international comparison is used for this statistic:
Rank Country League 1 ø Point difference Change from previous week.
1 Germany 6.89 0.02
2 Italy 5.27 0.57
3 Spain 5.07 0.19
4 England 5.02 0.14
5 France 4.58 0.41
The same programming error had its tiny influence here, so the increase in all leagues will not be commented on.
However, the 1st place of the German Bundesliga is very clearly confirmed.
The “league of surprises”. Whether this reveals deficiencies in the quality of the game is a moot point, or even rather called into doubt. German football has the opportunity, especially in this (Champions League) week, to prove its international competitiveness.
10) The playing strength ranking
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.84 0.89 2.07 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.11 1.08 1.95 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 1.27 1.46 +0
4 FC Schalke 04 1.4 1.12 1.25 +0
5 Hamburger SV 1.53 1.32 1.16 +1
6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.58 1.48 1.07 -1
7 VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 1.33 1.00 +0
8 FSV Mainz 05 1.36 1.41 0.96 +0
9 SC Freiburg 1.3 1.37 0.95 +2
10 Werder Bremen 1.47 1.55 0.95 +0
11 VfB Stuttgart 1.56 1.69 0.92 -2
12 Hannover 96 1.32 1.47 0.90 +0
13 1.FC Nürnberg 1.31 1.47 0.89 +0
14 1.FC Köln 1.34 1.71 0.78 +2
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.29 1.7 0.76 +0
16 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.09 1.45 0.75 -2
17 FC St. Pauli 1.18 1.74 0.68 +0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 2.11 0.61 +0
26.15 26.16
Goals ø expected
2.906 These are also given more for the sake of completeness. Not everything seems logical and plausible, but the problem remains of setting up a more suitable one.
The fall of Frankfurt Eintracht stands out, the simultaneous passing of Cologne too. But whoever is capable of beating Bayern and, the following week, with boosted self-confidence, also gives Mainz four goals, compared to a team that has not scored at all in five games, is surely entitled to do so, even if they are still behind in the table? At the same time, Stuttgart fell 4-1 on their own pitch, so it’s not surprising. That Freiburg takes the place seems surprising, but one might immediately ask: “Who else?”
11) The frequency of trend changes
Well, making this statistic every week seems a bit excessive. Nevertheless, one can very well briefly look through the results for this effect:
In the games when both teams do not score at least one goal, one can save the investigation: Change of tendency impossible. St. Pauli against Gladbach, however, had 2 of them (the 1:1 after 0:1 and the 2:1 from the 1:1). Kaiserslautern against Dortmund had one, but this one was highly dramatic because it was in the final minute. Cologne against Mainz again had 2, the 1:1 of Mainz and the renewed Cologne lead, but you can also see immediately: if there were (would be) more goals,
nor that Bremen equaliser, so that a total of 6 tendency changes happened in the 9 games, which in this category gives a below-average suspense content for the matchday (6/9 = 0.667, while there were previously 0.899 tendency changes per game seen over the season).
12) The mathematical review of the matchday 22 results
Goal expectation
Home Away Result DeviationWolfsburg HSV 1.44 1.34 0 1 -1.44 -0.34
Frankfurt Leverkusen 1.03 1.68 0 3 -1.03 1.32
FC Bayern Hoffenheim 2.32 0.97 4 0 1.68 -0.97
Stuttgart Nuremberg 1.82 1.17 1 4 -0.82 2.83
St. Pauli Gladbach 1.83 1.47 3 1.17 -0.47
Schalke 04 Freiburg 1.62 0.93 1 0 -0.62 -0.93
Kaiserslautern Dortmund 0.84 2.02 1 1 0.16 -1.02
FC Köln Mainz 1.38 1.39 4 2 2.62 0.61
Bremen Hannover 1.81 1.15 1 1 -0.81 -0.15
14.08 12.11 15 13 0.92 0.89
Expected goal total Expected goal total: Goal total: Goal total
26.20 2.91 28 3.11111
ø Goal deviation: 2.11 First of all, here is the confirmation that the expected goal yield was not undercut again. On the other hand, the average goal deviation is quite high (average over the years about 1.84, which, by the way, corresponds quite exactly to the expected deviation; a fact that again shows the overall reliability of the figures). The occurrence of such a high deviation is mainly due to the outlier results of Stuttgart and Cologne, in the sense of high goal deviations, of course.
Note: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher a favourite position is, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality in the long term by comparing expected/occurred.
The determination (expected)
Pairing 1 X 2
Wolfsburg HSV 39.43% 25.70% 34.86% 34.31%
Frankfurt Leverkusen 23.00% 24.40% 52.60% 38.91%
FC Bayern Hoffenheim 67.58% 18.26% 14.16% 51.01%
Stuttgart Nuremberg 52.36% 23.24% 24.40% 38.77%
St. Pauli Gladbach 46.14% 22.86% 31.00% 36.13%
Schalke 04 Freiburg 53.45% 25.06% 21.50% 39.47%
Kaiserslautern Dortmund 14.65% 20.54% 64.82% 48.37%
FC Cologne Mainz 36.96% 25.82% 37.22% 34.18%
Bremen Hannover 52.77% 23.28% 23.95% 39.00%
3.86 2.09 3.04 3.60
Average expected commitment: 40.02% As a reminder, here is the expected determination, which measures the amount of favourites for the individual pairings, in total (average calculated from this) those for the entire matchday. The 40% is just above the long-term average for this league.
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2 Tendency W-ness Arrived Event
Wolfsburg HSV 39.43% 25.70% 34.86% 34.86%
Frankfurt Leverkusen 23.00% 24.40% 52.60% 52.60%
FC Bayern Hoffenheim 67.58% 18.26% 14.16% 67.58%
Stuttgart Nuremberg 52.36% 23.24% 24.40% 24.40%
St. Pauli Gladbach 46.14% 22.86% 31.00% 46.14%
Schalke 04 Freiburg 53.45% 25.06% 21.50% 53.45%
Kaiserslautern Dortmund 14.65% 20.54% 64.82% 20.54%
FC Cologne Mainz 36.96% 25.82% 37.22% 36.96%
Bremen Hanover 52.77% 23.28% 23.95% 23.28%
3.86 2.09 3.04 3.60
average commitment received: 39.98% So for this matchday, the mix of favourite events and outsider events has been almost exactly right. Of course, this sounds pleasing at first, but on the other hand, as we read in the previous week, there was quite a deficit especially in the Bundesliga, so that exceeding the value could not have done any harm (for the longer-term statistics). The highest favourite event – how could it be otherwise, the victory of Bayern — has arrived, otherwise Schalke and Leverkusen as well as St. Pauli (which are all quite far above the targeted 40%), otherwise only once the (very close) most unlikely event with the draw between Werder and Hannover, so overall coherent, the “healthy mix”. However, this value does not refer to the corrective thought in the table situation. The connection with this would be very slight, if it existed at all.
13) Preview of the 23rd matchday
Note: The computer uses a specially developed algorithm – which can of course be explained and is highly logical – to calculate the goal expectations (and the individually maintained home advantage not shown here) to these goal expectations. These in turn are offset against the probabilities of occurrence, in the past by simulation, today long since by a function derived from the simulation results). These goal expectancy values have also long since proved to be competitive in goal number betting on the betting market.
Goal expectation
Home Away TotalNuremberg Frankfurt 1.50 0.96 2.46
Hannover Kaiserslautern 1.88 1.15 3.03
HSV Bremen 1.91 1.14 3.04
Freiburg Wolfsburg 1.29 1.05 2.34
Dortmund St. Pauli 2.36 0.61 2.96
Hoffenheim FC Cologne 2.11 1.17 3.28
Mainz FC Bayern 1.10 1.73 2.83
Leverkusen Stuttgart 2.30 1.29 3.59
Gladbach Schalke 04 1.09 1.77 2.86
15.52 10.87 26.39
Expected goal total Expected goal average
26.39 2.93 The home teams remain clearly ahead in the aggregate, Dortmund and Bayern play alternately. High-scoring games are expected in Leverkusen (against Stuttgart) and Hoffenheim (against Cologne). HSV – Werder and Hannover – Lautern are also above average. Very low-scoring is the pairing in Freiburg, but this is also intuitive: Both have had rather low-scoring games over the season.
Explanation: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the
individual probabilities, for each match. One can easily check that the minimum determination is 33.33%. This is the case when all outcomes are exactly equally likely, namely 33.33%.
What is measured by the fixing is the amount of favouritism overall. In the long-term average, the expected and the realised determination is quite exactly at just under 40%. This is the case when a distribution of 50% – 30% – 20% is given (for this, the determination would be 0.50.5 + 0.30.3 + 0.2*0.2 = 0.25 + 0.09 + 0.04 = 0.39 = 39%). This is roughly equivalent to the home advantage in the league.
The determination (expected)
Pairing 1 X 2
Nuremberg Frankfurt 49.55% 26.26% 24.19% 37.30%
Hannover Kaiserslautern 54.15% 22.69% 23.16% 39.83%
HSV Bremen 55.27% 22.41% 22.32% 40.55%
Freiburg Wolfsburg 41.98% 28.08% 29.94% 34.47%
Dortmund St. Pauli 76.48% 15.72% 7.80% 61.57%
Hoffenheim FC Cologne 58.68% 20.80% 20.52% 42.97%
Mainz FC Bayern 23.96% 23.94% 52.10% 38.62%
Leverkusen Stuttgart 60.04% 19.54% 20.41% 44.04%
Gladbach Schalke 04 23.17% 23.58% 53.26% 39.29%
4.43 2.03 2.54 3.79
average expected determination: 42.07% So this week slightly higher favourites than usual and on average. Especially a game like Dortmund vs. St. Pauli has rarity value (you can see that a chance of less than 10% occurs there, which is indeed very rare; “occurrence”, however, does not mean “occurrence” for a long time, i.e. not for much longer, just about every 14 times). The rest of the games are then pretty normal, so that provides one for the effect.
The fair odds:
Pairing 1 X 2
Nuremberg Frankfurt 2.02 3.81 4.13
Hannover Kaiserslautern 1.85 4.41 4.32
HSV Bremen 1.81 4.46 4.48
Freiburg Wolfsburg 2.38 3.56 3.34
Dortmund St. Pauli 1.31 6.36 12.82
Hoffenheim FC Cologne 1.70 4.81 4.87
Mainz FC Bayern 4.17 4.18 1.92
Leverkusen Stuttgart 1.67 5.12 4.90
Gladbach Schalke 04 4.32 4.24 1.88
Here are the fair odds as a service. You should carefully observe the development of the odds in the course of the week, if you decide to use them. The odds nowadays are changeable. If you observe one, however, you should consult the team news, as this often indicates a special circumstance (such as the loss of a player or a change of coach).
Since we are talking about German football here and the Second Division also has its importance, today, as a special service, the assessments for the Second Division in the same sense:
The second division pairings of the 23rd matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away TotalMunich 1860 Augsburg 1.00 1.29 2.29
Bochum Düsseldorf 1.54 0.95 2.50
Ingolstad Greuther Fürth 0.98 1.32 2.29
Duisburg Union 1.80 0.84 2.65
SC Paderborn Aachen 1.40 1.23 2.63
Erzgebirge Aue Bielefeld 1.72 0.68 2.40
Osnabrück Oberhausen 1.74 1.05 2.80
FSV Frankfurt Karlsruhe 2.05 1.14 3.19
Hertha Cottbus 2.23 1.11 3.34
14.46 9.62 24.08
Expected goal total Expected goal average
24.08 2.68 So the goal average is lower than in Liga 1. Goal-poor games to be expected especially in Berlin (3.34 goals) and Frankfurt (3.19 goals). Low-goal games more likely in Munich and Ingolstadt (2.29 goals each).
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Augsburg 28.91% 27.77% 43.32% 34.84%
Bochum Düsseldorf 51.25% 25.40% 23.35% 38.17%
Ingolstad Greuther Fürth 27.71% 27.63% 44.66% 35.26%
Duisburg Union 60.11% 22.62% 17.27% 44.23%
SC Paderborn Aachen 41.10% 25.81% 33.09% 34.50%
Erzgebirge Aue Bielefeld 62.34% 23.18% 14.48% 46.33%
Osnabrück Oberhausen 53.69% 23.44% 22.87% 39.55%
FSV Frankfurt Karlsruhe 58.38% 20.95% 20.66% 42.75%
Hertha Cottbus 62.80% 19.38% 17.82% 46.37%
4.46 2.16 2.38 3.62
Average expected commitment: 40.22 With over 40% expected commitment, this value is also higher than the long-term average of the league, which is still slightly below that of League 1 (“in the Second Division, anyone can beat anyone”, it is said, and can be read from this). Especially a Hertha home game ensures that, but, as you can see, Cottbus is well above 10%. Bielefeld’s opponents also have a supposedly easy draw (which was just disproved by their performance against Bochum) and Union also have a tough time in Duisburg.
Here are the fair odds, with which you are welcome to enjoy the betting market:
Pairing 1 X 2
Munich 1860 Augsburg 3.46 3.60 2.31
Bochum Düsseldorf 1.95 3.94 4.28
Ingolstad Greuther Fürth 3.61 3.62 2.24
Duisburg Union 1.66 4.42 5.79
SC Paderborn Aachen 2.43 3.87 3.02
Erzgebirge Aue Bielefeld 1.60 4.31 6.90
Osnabrück Oberhausen 1.86 4.27 4.37
FSV Frankfurt Karlsruhe 1.71 4.77 4.84
Hertha Cottbus 1.59 5.16 5.61
