1) The 1st Bundesliga
a. Review of the Matches
Results of the 28th Matchday
FC St. Pauli – FC Schalke 04 abandoned
1st FC Kaiserslautern – Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 (0:0)
FC Bayern Munich – Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:0 (0:0)
Borussia Dortmund – Hannover 96 4:1 (0:0)
Werder Bremen – VfB Stuttgart 1:1 (1:1)
FSV Mainz 05 – SC Freiburg 1:1 (0:1)
TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV 0:0
- FC Cologne – 1.FC Nuremberg 1:0 (0:0)
VfL Wolfsburg – Eintracht Frankfurt 1:1 (0:0)
General assessment:
There was a single team overall that scored more than one goal on this matchday. The title contender and clear leader is Borussia Dortmund. What else do these statistics tell us? Well, tendencies already announced in previous weeks are increasingly being confirmed. The euphoria triggered by the World Cup has long since subsided. At the beginning of the season, it meant that the offensive spirit embodied by the German team according to the motto “we can always score a goal” was imitated, adopted. This resulted in the slight increase in the goal average. All teams played forward optimistically. A new zeitgeist seemed to have broken out, although the warnings had been sounded by writers long before: Football is dying the goalless death.
The reason for this is more than obvious: as soon as one suspects, or rather “knows”, that a goal is responsible for the entire outcome of the game (this obviously applied to every game at the weekend except Dortmund), one is logically afraid to take even the slightest risk. “If we concede one, it’s over” is the motto. Such is the behaviour of players and coaches. Only there are a few more main culprits: The referees plus assistants. Immediately they realise that they, too, can sense this. The consequence: they no longer dare to interpret a single important decision in favour of scoring a goal. The reason: “If I give a penalty, I have decided the game. I can’t do that.” And it goes on.
The misconception, of course, is that a goal not given has just as much influence on the distribution of chances in the game as one given. Nevertheless, the feeling prevails. “If I’m going to decide for goal, then everything really has to be flawless.” (Likewise for the penalty or against offside when it is close). This attitude is transferred to everyone, including the media, who do not recognise the problem at its core. The decision for offside and against the penalty is the easy decision. It is also “covered” at all levels. “That’s too little for a penalty.” (Means: a foul it probably was, but you can’t give a penalty after all. Is that what the rules say?). The decision to let the ball go when it is close and the decision for the penalty is the difficult, also “courageous” decision. Because: it is very well recognised that the whistle-blower thereby exposes himself to the risk that the decision will be recognised as wrong and that he is the culprit for the team’s defeat and relegation. Of course, he doesn’t want that. Since the other decision goes through without a problem, the whistle is blown again and again against the goal action.
The one who suffers most obviously: the fan. And thus, in the long run, football itself. Think above all of the pure fan of the game of football (which, in this opinion, has long since ceased to exist). They are permanently alienated. Whenever things could get exciting, the whistle blows to stop everything. No matter where the ball is fought for. The defender is given all the means at his disposal, the striker has trouble even breathing in. Because: if he does (think of the version: violently!) the defender falls over and gets a free kick. As it should be.
In the individual games, it looked like you could read about at least one decision in almost every match report in which there could have been, now and then should have been, a penalty kick. Nevertheless, the referees are all in the clear and can hardly expect any serious scolding from the media. “He missed that. Lucky for…” Or: “Yes, that was also very difficult to see.” Why is it that every one of these decisions went in favour of the defence (and thus against football)?
No wonder an indignant, disappointed fan throws a beer mug at some point. He is not the only one who feels (inarticulately) that the fate of his club is at the mercy of one of the men in black. Powerlessness in the face of this leads to such outbursts. Every game could have a different outcome with a single refereeing decision (which would be guaranteed to be considered justified, unless the opposite was considered unjustified). And there are enough questionable situations. This, too, is an indictment of the game of football. At the end of the day, it’s just a question of whether the referee lets everything slide in this situation or turns a blind eye in that one and lets the striker have the right of way just once. In this way, you (as a neutral spectator) simply don’t want to see any more games decided.
The teams all look the same. Apart from Dortmund and Bayern, maybe Leverkusen, who else is supposed to be recognisable this season (even otherwise, before that) apart from the colour of their jerseys by any other stand-out feature? No, it’s a uniform mass, the players change wherever they want, identification with the club has long since become the only foreign word understood everywhere and the games are decided by a whistle this long or an omitted one the other way. How can anyone look forward to football?
Bayern struggles to a 1:0. Leverkusen too, both goals scored after the 70th minute. Hoffenheim against HSV “because of the weather conditions” a mispass festival (how proud the reporting writer was, surely, to be able to say such a thing). Mainz, wow, Mainz make a comeback! They were already hopelessly behind 0:1. And suddenly, bam, bam, 1:1! How the game can turn!
Cologne first! The pure scandal, allegedly. And then, instead of the final whistle, 1:0! No, Schalke even scored 2 goals! A real landslide victory was in the offing, with a two-goal lead! It was too much to bear. No, there was another sensational game in Bremen. From 0:1 to 1:1. And Wolfsburg too. Just read this match report. Unclear decisions, penalty kicks and actually both goals could have been disallowed. There you go, that would be it: not much more, and all games end 0:0! The goal of all dreams! No more mistakes!
A word about Diego: The scene really looks intentional. That’s true. What the opponent makes of it is again much more than it should be and actually was. Only: Diego is one of the exceptional offensive players. Due to his physical inferiority, which he of course more than makes up for with ball skills at the highest level, he in particular is worked on much more than all the other offensive forces. He is far superior to his opponents, but is unable to translate this superiority into action because of the physicality that opposes him, which of course he can only smile at in principle. No wonder, then, that at some point his collar bursts, the pent-up rage, triggered by the opponent preventing him from playing football, eventually discharges. There is no justice for him on the pitch. So he resorts to vigilante justice. That’s how people are. The referees should be the ones to protect him. Then the behaviour would certainly stop. But he is not protected. Above all, the spectator misses out on artistic enjoyment because almost everything is based on physicality. A pretty player? Doesn’t stand a chance today. But neither does football…
A word about Dortmund and Götze: of course the boy is simply great, no question. It’s a joy to see such a solo, in which he fearlessly passes through all the opponents. Only one should take into account that this last leg shot is simply a coincidence. It’s a great zigzag run where the ball almost sticks to his foot, but had to leave his foot for the off-foot shot. It’s a new kind of dribbling, that’s for sure. You know the risk of losing the ball. However, the fundamental risk is much more: so no goal, so no goal, never a goal. So offensively it doesn’t matter how you don’t score a goal. You can also just drive the ball forward, as an individual, and try it that way. After all, nothing more than “no goal either” can happen (in the past, another way to success would still have been considered possible and a clearance followed by a clearance would have been preferred, such a solo would have been described as “exaggerated individual play”). This is how he drives the ball forward. It has also often been observed lately that one even includes a rebound off the opponent’s foot, i.e. simply drives forward and runs after it, perhaps getting the ball back in front of his feet despite the opponent’s leg and continuing to run with it.
When he finally appears in front of the goalkeeper, another defender approaches from the side. Whether it is actually Götze’s turn, whether he gives the decisive force, whether the ball comes to his foot from the defender’s straddle or whether it is even the defender who has the last touch, cannot be clearly determined from this side here. One would like it to be so — comparable with the Maradonna goal after a solo over 60 metres, the “goal of the century”, where a defender is also on the ball at the end — but whether it really was so?
b. The standings
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 28 20 5 3 65 58 – 17 +41
2 Bayer Leverkusen 28 17 7 4 58 57 – 34 +23
3 FC Bayern Munich 28 15 6 7 51 60 – 34 +26
4 Hannover 96 28 16 2 10 50 40 – 40 +0
5 FSV Mainz 05 28 14 3 11 45 43 – 35 +8
6 1.FC Nürnberg 28 12 6 10 42 42 – 37 +5
7 Hamburger SV 28 12 5 11 41 43 – 44 -1
8 SC Freiburg 28 11 5 12 38 35 – 39 -4
9 TSG Hoffenheim 28 9 10 9 37 42 – 39 +3
10 1.FC Köln 28 10 5 13 35 38 – 49 -11
11 FC Schalke 04 27 9 6 12 33 31 – 33 -2
12 Werder Bremen 28 8 9 11 33 38 – 54 -16
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 28 9 5 14 32 28 – 38 -10
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 28 8 7 13 31 36 – 44 -8
15 VfB Stuttgart 28 8 6 14 30 47 – 50 -3
16 FC St. Pauli 27 8 4 15 28 29 – 47 -18
17 VfL Wolfsburg 28 6 10 12 28 32 – 41 -9
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 28 6 5 17 23 38 – 62 -24
737 737 0
Total number of games 251
Goals ø 2.94
Schalke will probably get the win at the green table, probably a 3:0. Of course, this is not taken into account in the table. Nevertheless, St. Pauli are almost at the bottom (the computer still gives them the bonus of the extra game, which is considered more logical than the usual sorting criteria, which only consider points and goal difference, disregarding the number of games; since such a table here with different numbers of games always has only a temporary character, it is not essential, but should remain so; 27 games and 28 points is better than 28 games and 28 points, regardless of the difference; isn’t that right?).
There’s not that much in the way of order. At the top, perhaps, the three top teams, which will prevail after all, behind them everything is pretty close, up to the relegation contenders, from which Cologne, thanks to the victory, is now quite clearly distanced.
c. The title question
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation, which is based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations (also given in the text below) and the final table is used to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4887 97.74% 1.02
2 Bayer Leverkusen 112 2.24% 45
3 FC Bayern Munich 1 0.02% 5000
5000 100.00%
Bayern only with a puny success in 5000 attempts. But Leverkusen’s chances also fall, despite their own victories, as long as Dortmund win, because of the shorter distance. Or so: their chances are based on Dortmund stumbling. Wins of their own are a prerequisite for then taking advantage of this chance.
Chance changes compared to the previous week due to the matchday 28 results
Team Changes absolute compared to previous week Championships in percent
Borussia Dortmund 72 1.44%
Hannover 96 -1 -0.02%
FC Bayern Munich -6 -0.12%
Bayer Leverkusen -65 -1.30%
0 0.00%
Of course: every win brings them decisively closer to the goal.
d. The title chances in development
This time another jag upwards on the blue curve (which of course should be black-yellow…).
e. Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
The probability distribution for 2nd place after the 28th matchday
Team Number of 2nd places 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities1 Bayer Leverkusen 4199 83.98% 1.19
2 FC Bayern Munich 667 13.34% 7.50
3 Borussia Dortmund 113 2.26% 44.25
4 Hannover 96 21 0.42% 238.10
5000 100.00%
Four teams still in the draw. Hannover and Dortmund, however, only have quite small chances (which Dortmund would gladly give up). Leverkusen, of course, stabilise their chances with wins of their own.
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team win/loss absolute win/loss in per cent
1 Bayer Leverkusen 327 6.54%
14 Hamburger SV -1 -0.02%
15 FSV Mainz 05 -5 -0.10%
16 Borussia Dortmund -69 -1.38%
17 Hannover 96 -83 -1.66%
18 FC Bayern Munich -169 -3.38%
0 0.00%
Bayern loses despite winning. Two reasons: they had the easier task on this matchday (home against Gladbach, Leverkusen away in Lautern) and otherwise the same reason why Leverkusen loses chances to win the title despite their own victories. Both win: helps the leader as the distance gets shorter.
f. The relegation question
The distribution of relegation percentages
Note: There would also be a detailed breakdown over the individual places. Here, places 17 and 18 count as fully relegated (i.e. in total as 1, for relegated in each case, otherwise the term is “direct relegation”), and a further third of relegated teams are added through relegation, whereby the first division team is generally rated as 2/3 to 1/3 favourites over the second division team. This makes the total number of relegated teams equal to 233.33%. In individual cases, of course, it would be different in reality. So if, for example, Hertha entered Liga 2 in 3rd place and St. Pauli in 16th place, one could perhaps speak of a balanced pairing.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 94.76% 1.15% 95.91%
2 FC St. Pauli 54.82% 6.29% 61.11%
3 VfL Wolfsburg 23.00% 6.91% 29.91%
4 Eintracht Frankfurt 8.86% 6.87% 15.73%
5 1.FC Kaiserslautern 8.68% 4.64% 13.32%
6 VfB Stuttgart 7.74% 5.19% 12.93%
7 Werder Bremen 1.50% 1.25% 2.75%
8 1.FC Köln 0.32% 0.64% 0.96%
9 FC Schalke 04 0.32% 0.35% 0.67%
10 TSG Hoffenheim 0.00% 0.05% 0.05%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
Now 10 teams left in the draw (down from 11 the previous week). And Hoffenheim is on the verge – even with single points – of finally bowing out as well. As you can see, one of the top candidates, Cologne, has successfully “destroyed” almost all its chances thanks to its fantastic second half of the season.
Gladbach with now almost 96%. As high as never?! Stuttgart and Werder on the mend, leaving only heavyweight Wolfsburg waiting for the breakthrough (under Magath now).
The change in chances from the 27th to the 28th matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances
1 1.FC Cologne -4.03%
2 Eintracht Frankfurt -1.75%
3 VfB Stuttgart -1.62%
4 Werder Bremen -0.46%
5 SC Freiburg -0.05%
6 TSG Hoffenheim -0.02%
14 FC St. Pauli 0.04%
15 FC Schalke 04 0.04%
16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.09%
17 1.FC Kaiserslautern 2.33%
18 VfL Wolfsburg 4.44%
0.00%
No big jumps, probably because hardly any candidates played each other, and those that did (Frankfurt and Wolfsburg, respectively Bremen and Stuttgart) shared the points. Still, a home 1-1 didn’t do Wolfsburg much good….
g. The relegation question in development
This week one has to do without any incisive events, also in this graph. Overall, however, a nice picture, which proves the relegation battle as such to be exciting.
h. The points expectations and the deviations
Explanation: for each game the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per match according to the formula probability of victory * 3 points + probability of draw * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with those that have occurred, but an imbalance is forced by the three-point rule. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 Hannover 96 33.05 50 16.95 16.95
2 Borussia Dortmund 51.62 65 13.38 13.38
3 Bayer Leverkusen 48.10 58 9.90 9.90
4 1.FC Nürnberg 32.97 42 9.03 9.03
5 FSV Mainz 05 36.95 45 8.05 8.05
6 1.FC Köln 30.39 35 4.61 4.61
7 SC Freiburg 34.99 38 3.01 3.01
8 1.FC Kaiserslautern 31.19 31 -0.19 0.19
9 FC St. Pauli 28.32 28 -0.32 0.32
10 Hamburger SV 42.72 41 -1.72 1.72
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 34.42 32 -2.42 2.42
12 TSG Hoffenheim 40.83 37 -3.83 3.83
13 FC Bayern Munich 54.87 51 -3.87 3.87
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 29.60 23 -6.60 6.60
15 Werder Bremen 41.19 33 -8.19 8.19
16 FC Schalke 04 41.91 33 -8.91 8.91
17 VfB Stuttgart 40.50 30 -10.50 10.50
18 VfL Wolfsburg 40.26 28 -12.26 12.26
6.13 123.76
ø Deviation 6.88The top two teams in this statistic met – with an ultimately clear victory for the runner-up. But this did not change the ranking. Hannover still 3 points more above their expectation than Dortmund. Well, as you can see from the column “points expectation”, the computer only gave them 33.05. The particular “problem” with this low estimate is precisely related to the following statistic on goal expectations. Since Hannover has maintained its poor goal ratio throughout the entire season, the computer is reluctant to correct its assessment, since it depends primarily on goals scored and conceded. It doesn’t let itself be fooled and continues to consider narrow victories followed by clear defeats as a lucky outcome. So he still doesn’t trust Hannover with too much and declares the whole season to be a “fluke”.
Well, as much as Hannover has gained a lot of respect with good games – perhaps the emotionless machine is a little bit right after all? Because: 50 points, 4th place, just behind Bayern, with a balanced goal difference (compared to Bayern’s plus 26!) provide certain clues?
In the last four places, the very early “problem children”, who have not moved away from there until today. As you can see, the computer expected these teams to score more than 40 points each. The extent to which this rather conservative thinking is still valid should be examined in further seasons. After all, there is no comparable trend abroad. In that sense, everything continues to run “normally” there. That could be the decisive pointer that this German season is just a “one off”. Or do the clocks really tick differently in Germany?
The foreign comparison for the average point deviation
Note: the theory is that the German Bundesliga is the most exciting among Europe’s top leagues. This finding is rather intuitively derived, but so far “accepted” both in this country and abroad. Of course, the higher goal average is an indication of this, as well as the(perceived) lower predictability when it comes to the title, relegation, but also other issues. Balance is a criterion and possibly the main reason for this.
The measure used here for the deviation in average points expectation provides measurable information about this, but it is probably a “problem” specific to this season (the fan thanks) that the Bundesliga has produced a particularly large number of surprises. This is reflected in the figures.
League 1 ø Deviation Change from previous week
Germany 6.88 0.14
Italy 4.91 -0.01
Spain 3.62 0.29
France 3.56 0.05
England 2.15 -0.24
Here is the first confirmation of what was said above: the deviation in the Bundesliga is uniquely high by European standards. This week there was no correction towards more balance or fewer surprises. Those who exceeded their expectations scored proportionally more than those who fell short. There was a downward correction only in England. There even significantly and the results were so far most according to their expectations overall. Could this suggest that perhaps the best league after all is characterised by football becoming more predictable, more predictable? So like this: the better, the more predictable the results, similar to chess perhaps?! Does that make the game even more boring?
i. Goal expectations and their deviations
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. However, the goal average may show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Dortmund 50.20 58 29.78 17 20.58
2 1.FC Nürnberg 35.43 42 44.46 37 14.04
3 FSV Mainz 05 38.52 43 41.30 35 10.78
4 Hannover 96 35.68 40 44.49 40 8.81
5 Bayer Leverkusen 49.99 57 35.09 34 8.09
6 1.FC Kaiserslautern 34.81 36 46.84 44 4.02
7 1.FC Köln 34.24 38 47.81 49 2.57
8 SC Freiburg 37.05 35 42.84 39 1.79
9 FC Bayern Munich 53.88 60 27.75 34 -0.13
10 TSG Hoffenheim 43.45 42 39.88 39 -0.57
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 35.47 28 41.58 38 -3.89
12 FC St. Pauli 30.99 29 45.00 47 -3.99
13 VfB Stuttgart 44.60 47 41.94 50 -5.66
14 Hamburger SV 43.93 43 37.64 44 -7.29
15 Borussia Mönchengladbach 37.74 38 53.91 62 -7.83
16 FC Schalke 04 41.60 31 34.21 33 -9.39
17 VfL Wolfsburg 41.39 32 38.62 41 -11.77
18 Werder Bremen 45.11 38 40.98 54 -20.13
734.09 737 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 7.85
3.02 3.03 As you can see Hannover only in 4th place here. Werder remain at the bottom, despite their comparatively good series recently. Bayern in solid midfield, with a minimal minus. Lautern, despite the continuing danger of relegation, are clearly up in 6th place. Overall, the goal average is almost exactly as expected. There are only three more goals than expected. Is the computer perhaps doing a good job after all?
The international comparison for this statistic as well:
Place Country League 1 ø Goal difference Change from previous week
1 Germany 7.85 -0.15
2 Italy 5.59 0.52
3 Spain 5.10 0.53
4 England 5.12 -0.03
5 France 4.32 -0.04
Germany also clearly ahead in this table of measurable surprises. England, however, is not in the boring place that France claims for itself. It is pointless to look for reasons again, as there is no exact correlation between this and the previous statistics. Outlier results can be a 6-0 or a 4-3, for which only three points are awarded, even in England.
j. The playing strength ranking
Note: Playing strength is measured in goals expected against the average team (which does not exist in practice). There is offensive strength, which is measured in expected goals scored, and defensive strength, which is measured in expected goals conceded. The quotient of these two values is the measure of playing strength. The more expected goals scored, the higher the value; the fewer expected goals conceded, the higher the value.
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Counter Shift
1 Borussia Dortmund 1.82 0.86 2.11 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.13 1.13 1.89 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.90 1.17 1.63 +0
4 Hamburger SV 1.60 1.43 1.12 +1
5 FC Schalke 04 1.29 1.16 1.12 -1
6 1.FC Nürnberg 1.43 1.39 1.03 +0
7 FSV Mainz 05 1.42 1.39 1.03 +0
8 Werder Bremen 1.50 1.54 0.98 +1
9 TSG Hoffenheim 1.36 1.42 0.96 +1
10 Hannover 96 1.39 1.46 0.96 -2
11 VfB Stuttgart 1.51 1.65 0.92 +0
12 SC Freiburg 1.24 1.43 0.87 +0
13 VfL Wolfsburg 1.20 1.44 0.84 +0
14 1.FC Köln 1.37 1.65 0.83 +0
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.17 1.58 0.74 +0
16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 1.84 0.69 +0
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.01 1.49 0.68 +0
18 FC St. Pauli 1.08 1.76 0.62 +0
25.74 25.74 +0
Goals ø expected
2.860 The shifts minimal, but in some cases surprising, such as Hamburger SV’s continued rise. The “problem” of the computer quite clearly visible: no one stands out clearly from the following teams. Schalke, of course, would have their noses in front with the confirmed 2:0. But Nuremberg, Mainz, Werder, Hannover, even Hoffenheim did not achieve good results that would take them forward. Rank 16 and 17 are of course debatable. But Gladbach’s 0:1 in Munich rather helped them, despite the pointless yield.
k. The frequency of tendency changes
Note: a “change of tendency” is considered to be a goal that equalises a lead or scores a lead. The 1:0 is not counted, because without this goal it would not even begin to have anything to do with tension in the goal sequence. Every now and then, a statistical comparison is made here with other countries. This shows that there are more changes of tendency in Germany than elsewhere, which on the one hand points to perceived tension in the Bundesliga – which is possibly envied abroad – and on the other hand points to possible tactical deficiencies, which, following an old tradition, make one advise to urgently go for a second goal after a 1:0 – and not to dull and insipidly, as is usual abroad, rock this goal over time. International comparisons provide more information about the effectiveness or weakness of German behaviour.
There was, of course, the turned game in Dortmund, with consequently two changes of tendency, then the three 1:1s with one change each (although even a 1:1 doesn’t sound like rousing excitement), are three more goals for this statistic, and that’s it. In total, 5, spread over 8 games, makes a value of 0.625 changes of tendency per game, which is again below the season average. This is recalculated at 0.8725.
Here, too, the international comparison:
Top league in.. Matches Equalising goals Leads Home Leads Away Trend changes total Trend changes per match
Germany 251 130 50 39 219 0.873
England 308 160 51 39 250 0.812
Italy 310 129 47 31 207 0.668
France 290 123 33 30 186 0.641
Spain 300 114 34 38 186 0.620
As you can see, Germany is also ahead internationally here. Sure, there are also more goals, which is helpful for these statistics here, but it is precisely the goals that are propagated here that should make the game livelier and more exciting again and also more attractive for neutral spectators. So it’s lucky that there are still some in Germany (even if last week’s trend shows international levels). So it is by no means to be considered “unfair” that this comparison is made.
For the level, however, it is not an overly positive report card, since it has something to do with tactics to get a lead “over time”, which is therefore better achieved in other leagues (to the regret of the spectators as a whole, certainly, but not of the fans of the team managing the lead). Well, at least the German league has been able to hold its own in the European competitions so far, despite Bayern’s somewhat unfortunate elimination in the Champions League against Inter, only due to the away goal, and in itself as the (somewhat) better team in both games.
l. The mathematical review of the results of matchday 28
Goal expectation
Home Away Total DeviationKaiserslautern Leverkusen 1.11 1.81 2.92 0 1 -1.11 -0.81
FC Bayern Gladbach 3.33 0.88 4.21 1 0 -2.33 -0.88
Dortmund Hannover 1.76 0.67 2.43 4 1 2.24 0.33
Bremen Stuttgart 1.88 1.52 3.40 1 1 -0.88 -0.52
Mainz Freiburg 1.46 1.03 2.49 1 1 -0.46 -0.03
Hoffenheim HSV 1.65 1.36 3.01 0 0 -1.65 -1.36
FC Cologne Nuremberg 1.59 1.41 3.00 1 0 -0.59 -1.41
Wolfsburg Frankfurt 1.40 0.98 2.38 1 1 -0.40 0.02
14.17 9.68 23.85 9 5 -5.17 -4.68
Expected goal total Expected goal average Goal average achieved
23.85 2.98 1.75 ø expected goal difference 1.92 ø goal difference 1.88
14 goals in 8 games so, a goal average of 1.75 per game. Poverty! (Almost)Every goal scored caused a change in tendency. Almost all of them, however, were 1:0 or 1:1, the exception being Dortmund. No wonder that the average goal deviation is lower than expected. At the same time, Bayern’s 1:0 with a total goal deviation of 3.21 is, so to speak, the sensation of the matchday, which of course makes it hard to feel that way.
m. The determination
Note 1: The fixing is calculated for each match as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher the favourite position, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the (favourite) event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality of the estimates made here in the long term by comparing expected/occurred. This is done week by week, but of course also overall.
Note 2: No comparable model has yet been discovered in mathematics. Not even by a mathematician who had set himself the task of proving to the author that there was guaranteed to be nothing new.
The determination expects
Pairing 1 X 2
Kaiserslautern Leverkusen 23.07% 22.87% 54.06% 39.78%
FC Bayern Gladbach 83.56% 10.24% 6.20% 71.26%
Dortmund Hannover 63.54% 22.64% 13.82% 47.41%
Bremen Stuttgart 46.29% 22.14% 31.57% 36.30%
Mainz Freiburg 46.90% 26.17% 26.93% 36.10%
Hoffenheim HSV 44.47% 23.81% 31.72% 35.51%
FC Cologne Nuremberg 41.89% 23.98% 34.13% 34.95%
Wolfsburg Frankfurt 46.59% 26.88% 26.54% 35.97%
3.96 1.79 2.25 3.37
Average expected commitment: 37.47%
The determination arrived Pairing 1 X 2
Kaiserslautern Leverkusen 23.07% 22.87% 54.06% 54.06%
FC Bayern Gladbach 83.56% 10.24% 6.20% 83.56%
Dortmund Hannover 63.54% 22.64% 13.82% 63.54%
Bremen Stuttgart 46.29% 22.14% 31.57% 22.14%
Mainz Freiburg 46.90% 26.17% 26.93% 26.17%
Hoffenheim HSV 44.47% 23.81% 31.72% 23.81%
FC Cologne Nuremberg 41.89% 23.98% 34.13% 41.89%
Wolfsburg Frankfurt 46.59% 26.88% 26.54% 26.88%
3.96 1.79 2.25 3.42
Average number of points received: 38.01%As you can see a very normal distribution of favourite and outsider events. The 38.01% arrived versus the 37.47% expected shows that there were, if anything, a bit too many favourite wins. Sure, the “safest” ones arrived: Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen. Cologne is also still the favourite, the four draws are all unlikely, but still over 20%, so no big surprise. All in all, a “normal” result.
n. Overall league statistics
Note: such a statistic is regularly produced by the computer. It is generally used for quality control of the individual figures. Each figure has its own meaning and is explained in more detail. The goal average is not repeated here. The home advantage is calculated by dividing the goals scored by the home team by half of the total goals. In this way, you can see how many more goals the home teams score than they would score without home advantage. 1,116 is 11.6% more for the home team, 11.6% less for the away team.
1st Football Bundesliga 2010/2011
Statistics of the actual results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals conceded Home advantage
251 114 53 84 417 320 1.132
Statistics of expected results Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
251 114.64 59.12 77.23 412.2 321.8 1.123
Statistics of absolute deviations Matches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -0.64 -6.12 6.77 4.8 -1.8 0.00845
Percentage difference statisticsMatches Home wins Draws Away wins Goals Conceded Home advantage
0 -0.56% -11.55% 8.06% 1.15% -0.56% 0.75%
Determination expected Determination arrived
39.42% 38.03%
ø Goal difference ø Goal difference expected
1.96 1.91 The arrived home advantage in terms of goals (that is how it is calculated) is even slightly larger than expected, which is surprising insofar as the home teams nevertheless took too few points (the home wins are almost exactly right, but the six missing draws all went in favour of the away teams). This means, then, that the home teams have scored their victories too highly, and when they have lost they have done so rather narrowly. Well, if the statistics say so? Yes, there was once a 6:0 and a 7:0, hmmm.
The surprises here can only be seen in the statistics expected and arrived at. Even if it appears to this or that reader as a relatively small deviation, this is more of a deception. Consider that an expected determination of 39.42% roughly corresponds to a 53% favourite position (with a draw = 23.5% and an underdog win also 23.5%), whereas the 38.03% achieved roughly corresponds to a 51% favourite position (with a draw = 24.5% and an underdog win also 24.5%). This would mean that the favourites were rated about 2% too high. Well, a somewhat higher deviation compared to previous years.
o. Preview of the 29th matchday
Note: The computer uses a specially developed – of course explainable and highly logical – algorithm to calculate the goal expectations (and the individually maintained home advantage not shown here) to these goal expectations. These in turn are offset against the probabilities of occurrence, in the past by simulation, today long since by a function derived from the simulation results). These goal expectancy values have also long since proved to be competitive in goal number betting on the betting market.
Goal expectation
Home Away TotalFrankfurt Bremen 1.26 1.32 2.58
HSV Dortmund 1.15 1.73 2.88
Schalke 04 Wolfsburg 1.47 0.81 2.28
Nuremberg FC Bayern 1.37 1.76 3.14
Hannover Mainz 1.61 1.36 2.97
Freiburg Hoffenheim 1.40 1.19 2.59
Stuttgart Kaiserslautern 1.95 1.19 3.14
Gladbach FC Cologne 1.62 1.55 3.16
Leverkusen St. Pauli 2.56 0.81 3.37
14.38 11.73 26.11
Expected goal total Expected goal average
26.11 2.90 The expected goal average continues to fall. Now it is only 2.9 goals, although there were still over 3 per game over the season. Very sensible, this computer.
Otherwise it may be surprising that Bremen are favourites in Frankfurt?
Many goals in Leverkusen, Gladbach, Stuttgart and Nuremberg (all with over three expected), but few in Schalke with 2.28, but also Frankfurt and Freiburg.
Note: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities. This measures how much one can commit to a favourite in a certain pairing. The higher a favourite position, the higher the sum of the squares, but also the more “certain” the occurrence of the event. The mathematical question in itself is even more how far one can commit, since one cannot really determine this value. Events are predicted whose probabilities are unknown. Nevertheless, one can check the quality in the long term by comparing expected/occurred events.
The determination expected
Pairing 1 X 2
Frankfurt Bremen 35.42% 26.60% 37.98% 34.05%
HSV Dortmund 25.18% 23.77% 51.05% 38.05%
Schalke 04 Wolfsburg 52.73% 26.60% 20.67% 39.15%
Nuremberg FC Bayern 29.96% 23.30% 46.74% 36.25%
Hanover Mainz 43.35% 24.35% 32.30% 35.15%
Freiburg Hoffenheim 41.79% 26.36% 31.86% 34.56%
Stuttgart Kaiserslautern 54.80% 22.04% 23.16% 40.25%
Gladbach FC Cologne 39.68% 23.67% 36.65% 34.78%
Leverkusen St. Pauli 75.05% 15.30% 9.65% 59.60%
3.98 2.12 2.90 3.52
average expected determination: 39.09%The 39.09% expected means a matchday that is also expected to be normal in terms of the distribution of favourites. Leverkusen with the expected 75% as top favourite of the matchday. Sure, it feels like a fairly easy task. But will it actually turn out that way? A whole quarter, i.e. the chance of getting heads twice in a row at the coin toss, would be against it. More than one feels?
Stuttgart and Dortmund are supposed to be higher favourites than Bayern. Well, Nuremberg really with a great second half, but whether they can stand up to the big Bavarians? Well, the fans will do everything they can with their support, but surely also the players on the pitch, since it is a Bavarian derby and Nuremberg has been replaced by Bayern as record champions…
The fair odds
Note: the fair odds are merely the inverse of the probabilities. However, this is how the games are offered on the betting market or traded on the betting exchanges (“betfair”). You can gladly compare what the computer guesses. The deviations will not be enormous, but theoretically every bet is a good bet (from the computer’s point of view) if the odds paid on the market are above the fair odds. “Good” is the bet insofar as it promises long-term profit. If you consistently make bets in this way, you should make a profit in the long run. Of course, there are no guarantees for this either.
Pairing 1 X 2
Frankfurt Bremen 2.82 3.76 2.63
HSV Dortmund 3.97 4.21 1.96
Schalke 04 Wolfsburg 1.90 3.76 4.84
Nuremberg FC Bayern 3.34 4.29 2.14
Hannover Mainz 2.31 4.11 3.10
Freiburg Hoffenheim 2.39 3.79 3.14
Stuttgart Kaiserslautern 1.82 4.54 4.32
Gladbach FC Cologne 2.52 4.22 2.73
Leverkusen St. Pauli 1.33 6.54 10.37
2) The 2nd Bundesliga
i. The Table Situation
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Hertha BSC 28 18 5 59 57 – 25 +32
2 FC Augsburg 28 17 6 5 57 52 – 21 +31
3 VfL Bochum 28 17 4 7 55 40 – 28 +12
4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28 14 8 6 50 39 – 22 +17
5 Erzgebirge Aue 27 13 6 8 45 28 – 30 -2
6 Energie Cottbus 28 13 6 9 45 54 – 40 +14
7 MSV Duisburg 28 12 7 9 43 41 – 28 +13
8 TSV 1860 Munich 28 11 9 8 42 37 – 29 +8
9 Alemannia Aachen 28 11 8 9 41 47 – 47 +0
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 28 12 3 13 39 36 – 34 +2
11 Union Berlin 28 9 8 11 35 30 – 33 -3
12 FSV Frankfurt 27 10 4 13 34 37 – 39 -2
13 SC Paderborn 28 8 7 13 31 26 – 39 -13
14 FC Ingolstadt 28 8 6 14 30 34 – 42 -8
15 Karlsruher SC 28 7 14 28 38 – 62 -24
16 VfL Osnabrueck 28 7 5 16 26 37 – 53 -16
17 Rot Weiss Oberhausen 28 6 6 16 24 22 – 48 -26
18 Arminia Bielefeld 28 3 5 20 14 22 – 57 -35
677 677 0
Total number of games 251
Goals ø 2.70
This week, we’ll take a closer look at the 2nd division, starting with the table. There are no big surprises here. If you like, the biggest one is Aue’s good position in the table, which all experts expected them to be at the bottom. However, if you look at the goal difference, this is put into perspective a little.
Hertha, Augsburg and Bochum started the season as top favourites and are also right at the top. Bielefeld, at the back, could not cope with the huge bloodletting. In view of this, the dismissal of Christian Ziege is silly. Otherwise, perhaps minimal surprise at Düsseldorf, who, however, after starting the season with six defeats, have very gradually stalked their way to the front. Perhaps one could have expected a little more from KSC, but it’s all within reason. Let’s see if the other numbers confirm this impression in a measurable way.
ii. The chances of promotion
Note: the simulation of League 2 runs exactly like that of League 1. 5000 runs were also made. Third place logically gives a 1/3 chance of promotion, although it should still depend on the pairing. Since the top favourites are ahead here, it could well be 50% that the time league third place has against the first league third last.
The chances of promotion
Team 1st place 2nd place 3rd place 1/3 for promotion Promotion percentage
Hertha BSC 2787 1568 590 196.67 91.03%
FC Augsburg 1852 2178 815 271.67 86.03%
VfL Bochum 350 1086 2650 883.33 46.39%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11 165 876 292.00 9.36%
Energie Cottbus 0 2 33 11.00 0.26%
Erzgebirge Aue 0 1 24 8.00 0.18%
MSV Duisburg 0 0 10 3.33 0.07%
TSV 1860 Munich 0 0 1 0.33 0.01%
Alemannia Aachen 0 0 1 0.33 0.01%
5000 5000 5000 1666.67 2.33
Hertha clearly on 1 despite the difficult remaining programme, but the 91% is still no guarantee. Augsburg have also steadily worked their way forward after a somewhat shaky start, just as Bochum took a while.
b. Expected points and deviations
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute1 Erzgebirge Aue 33.99 45 11.01 11.01
2 VfL Bochum 45.48 55 9.52 9.52
3 Hertha BSC 50.35 59 8.65 8.65
4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 42.96 50 7.04 7.04
5 FC Augsburg 50.13 57 6.87 6.87
6 Alemannia Aachen 38.33 41 2.67 2.67
7 Energie Cottbus 42.55 45 2.45 2.45
8 TSV 1860 Munich 41.13 42 0.87 0.87
9 FC Ingolstadt 29.95 30 0.05 0.05
10 FSV Frankfurt 34.66 34 -0.66 0.66
11 Fortuna Düsseldorf 39.88 39 -0.88 0.88
12 Union Berlin 37.91 35 -2.91 2.91
13 MSV Duisburg 46.49 43 -3.49 3.49
14 SC Paderborn 34.59 31 -3.59 3.59
15 VfL Osnabrueck 31.39 26 -5.39 5.39
16 Rot Weiss Oberhausen 30.68 24 -6.68 6.68
17 Karlsruher SC 34.90 28 -6.90 6.90
18 Arminia Bielefeld 26.44 14 -12.44 12.44
6.19 92.09
ø Deviation 5.12First of all, confirmation that Aue is the big surprise. The comparison with Hannover also fits well in that both have the poor goal difference, as well as both probably can’t get a very big goal.
At the back, as suspected, Bielefeld, who nevertheless must be simply below expectation with a pitiful yield, plus Karlsruhe.
Special attention, however, to the average deviation: here a very moderate value that does not stand out a bit from the top leagues internationally, which means that everything is pretty normal in this league. In other words: the 1st division has an absolutely exceptional season with all these surprises (which, of course, you also get used to in the course of time and therefore don’t feel that way any more).
After all, these same (surprises) provided the author with a welcome reason to start writing these texts here in order to work out – and document – measurable figures for the observations.
c. Evaluation of the 28th Second Division Matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total DeviationBielefeld Augsburg 0.68 2.22 2.91 0 2 -0.68 -0.22
Cottbus Ingolstad 1.98 1.10 3.08 1 2 -0.98 0.90
Karlsruhe Osnabrück 2.07 1.38 3.45 2 2 -0.07 0.62
Greuther Fürth Duisburg 1.22 0.79 2.01 2 1 0.78 0.21
Düsseldorf Erzgebirge Aue 1.50 0.81 2.32 3 0 1.50 -0.81
Hertha SC Paderborn 2.08 0.74 2.82 2 0 -0.08 -0.74
Aachen Munich 1860 1.47 1.45 2.92 2 1 0.53 -0.45
Oberhausen Union 1.02 1.09 2.11 0 2 -1.02 0.91
FSV Frankfurt Bochum 1.05 1.43 2.48 0 1 -1.05 -0.43
13.07 11.02 24.09 12 11 -1.07 -0.02
Expected Goal Total Expected Goal Total Scored Goal Total
24.09 2.68 23 2.56 ø expected goal deviation 1.81 ø goal deviation 1.33
The 2nd division much more “normal” than the 1st. The scored goal average very related to the expected one (even if this is also below), and the goal deviation so low that almost every game took an outcome close to the expectation. As you can see, hardly any team missed its expected goals by more than 1 either (exceptions: Düsseldorf, Oberhausen and FSV Frankfurt).
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Bielefeld Augsburg 9.96% 17.52% 72.52% 56.66%
Cottbus Ingolstad 57.84% 21.56% 20.61% 42.35%
Karlsruhe Osnabrück 53.26% 21.20% 25.53% 39.38%
Greuther Fürth Duisburg 46.24% 29.73% 24.03% 36.00%
Düsseldorf Erzgebirge Aue 53.53% 26.13% 20.34% 39.62%
Hertha SC Paderborn 68.58% 19.31% 12.11% 52.23%
Aachen Munich 1860 38.29% 24.63% 37.08% 34.48%
Oberhausen Union 33.15% 29.79% 37.06% 33.60%
FSV Frankfurt Bochum 27.66% 26.51% 45.83% 35.68%
3.89 2.16 2.95 3.70
Average expected commitment: 41.11%
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2
Bielefeld Augsburg 9.96% 17.52% 72.52% 72.52%
Cottbus Ingolstad 57.84% 21.56% 20.61% 20.61%
Karlsruhe Osnabrück 53.26% 21.20% 25.53% 21.20%
Greuther Fürth Duisburg 46.24% 29.73% 24.03% 46.24%
Düsseldorf Erzgebirge Aue 53.53% 26.13% 20.34% 53.53%
Hertha SC Paderborn 68.58% 19.31% 12.11% 68.58%
Aachen Munich 1860 38.29% 24.63% 37.08% 38.29%
Oberhausen Union 33.15% 29.79% 37.06% 37.06%
FSV Frankfurt Bochum 27.66% 26.51% 45.83% 45.83%
3.89 2.16 2.95 4.04
average commitment received: 44.87% So the favourites did even better than was to be expected. Only Cottbus, as over 50% favourites, even lost, but perhaps a little less surprisingly against the in-form Ingolstadt side. Otherwise, only the KSC draw as an underdog event.
3) Preview of the 29th Zweitliga matchday
Goal expectation
Home Away Total
Duisburg Aachen 1.72 1.29 3.01
Osnabrück Bielefeld 2.02 0.94 2.96
Augsburg Greuther Fürth 1.39 0.81 2.19
Munich 1860 Cottbus 1.56 1.25 2.81
Oberhausen Düsseldorf 1.05 1.29 2.33
Bochum Hertha 1.24 1.25 2.49
Erzgebirge Aue Karlsruhe 1.82 0.93 2.74
Union FSV Frankfurt 1.60 0.98 2.57
SC Paderborn Ingolstad 1.31 1.22 2.53
13.70 9.95 23.65
Expected goal total Expected goal average
23.65 2.63 Few words on this. You should expect many goals in Duisburg, also many in Osnabrück for this league. Very few, however, in Augsburg and Oberhausen respectively.
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
Duisburg Aachen 47.59% 23.52% 28.88% 36.53%
Osnabrück Bielefeld 62.61% 20.69% 16.69% 46.27%
Augsburg Greuther Fürth 50.64% 27.46% 21.90% 37.98%
Munich 1860 Cottbus 44.79% 24.69% 30.52% 35.47%
Oberhausen Düsseldorf 30.24% 27.67% 42.09% 34.52%
Bochum Hertha 36.18% 26.83% 36.98% 33.97%
Erzgebirge Aue Karlsruhe 58.38% 22.67% 18.95% 42.81%
Union FSV Frankfurt 51.82% 24.92% 23.26% 38.47%
SC Paderborn Ingolstad 38.84% 26.53% 34.63% 34.12%
4.21 2.25 2.54 3.40
average expected commitment: 37.79% A pretty even matchday this week. One reason for sure: the Hertha in Bochum pairing, where the 1’s meet the 3’s, promising an almost even pairing (but thus limiting two potential favourites).
The fair odds
Pairing 1 X 2
Duisburg Aachen 2.10 4.25 3.46
Osnabrück Bielefeld 1.60 4.83 5.99
Augsburg Greuther Fürth 1.97 3.64 4.57
Munich 1860 Cottbus 2.23 4.05 3.28
Oberhausen Düsseldorf 3.31 3.61 2.38
Bochum Hertha 2.76 3.73 2.70
Erzgebirge Aue Karlsruhe 1.71 4.41 5.28
Union FSV Frankfurt 1.93 4.01 4.30
SC Paderborn Ingolstad 2.57 3.77 2.89
That should be it for today. Have fun studying and lots of excitement for the next matchday. May the referees show a little more “courage” in the sense of pro-goal decisions!
