The descent question
Note: here are the results of the simulation of 5000 runs. The 233.33% total is explained like this: there are TWO direct relegated teams, each of which ends up 100% relegated, making 200%. The team that finishes in the relegation spot (16) is generally considered a 2 to 1 favourite against the second division third place team. This gives a further 33.33%. The practical resulting pairing will certainly have different percentages than assumed, but this would both increase complexity and decrease transparency.
| Mannschaft | Direkter Abstieg (Platz 17 oder 18) | Abstieg per Relegation | Insgesamt | |
| 1 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 99.70% | 0.09% | 99.79% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 49.14% | 10.54% | 59.68% |
| 3 | 1.FC Köln | 41.38% | 12.16% | 53.54% |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 6.16% | 6.13% | 12.29% |
| 5 | Hamburger SV | 3.56% | 4.25% | 7.81% |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.17% |
| 7 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 200.00% | 33.33% | 233.33% |
Kaiserslautern’s chances are, as they say, only theoretical. 0.21% on rescue? After all, they will certainly approach the next game absolutely normally, you can probably assume that.
Just as theoretical are the relegation chances of Nuremberg and Mainz, and even Freiburg’s value only adds up to about the same chance that Kaiserslautern alone has of staying in the league. So can we say that Lautern will save themselves, if ever, at the expense of one of these three teams? No, wrong. They are (almost) independent events, and both would, at least in later hindsight, be tantamount to a then surely frequently cited “miracle”.
The change in chances with regard to relegation as a result of the matchday 30 results
| Mannschaft | Chancenveränderung | |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 4.75% |
| 2 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 2.67% |
| 3 | FC Augsburg | 1.50% |
| 4 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0.78% |
| 15 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | -0.27% |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | -1.57% |
| 17 | Hertha BSC | -3.33% |
| 18 | 1.FC Köln | -4.52% |
Logically, there were TWO big losers: Hertha and Cologne. The only question was who their defeat would cost more. And the choice fell on … Cologne. Why is that? Hertha lost to a (at that time still) competitor, moreover in a home match, which is actually more expensive. Nevertheless, the amount of the defeat obviously weighed more, and Mainz still had something to do with relegation.
Freiburg emerges as the winner, but also Nuremberg with the liberation blow, although it seems a bit strange in the “friendly” against Schalke…
The relegation odds since the start of the season
