Note: here are the results of the simulation of 5000 runs. The 233.33% total is explained like this: there are TWO direct relegated teams, each of which ends up 100% relegated, making 200%. The team that finishes in the relegation spot (16) is generally considered a 2 to 1 favourite against the second division third place team. This gives a further 33.33%. The practical resulting pairing will certainly have different percentages than assumed, but this would both increase complexity and decrease transparency.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total1 1.FC Kaiserslautern 99.34% 0.18% 99.52%
2 Hertha BSC 47.16% 9.19% 56.35%
3 1.FC Cologne 38.66% 10.36% 49.02%
4 FC Augsburg 7.96% 5.83% 13.79%
5 Hamburger SV 2.70% 3.53% 6.23%
6 SC Freiburg 2.92% 2.00% 4.92%
7 1.FC Nuremberg 1.10% 1.62% 2.72%
8 FSV Mainz 05 0.16% 0.63% 0.79%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
The change in chances with regard to relegation due to the results of the 29th matchday
Team Change in chances1 Hamburger SV 1.69%
2 Hertha BSC 1.18%
3 1.FC Cologne 0.82%
4 TSG Hoffenheim 0.11%
5 1.FC Nuremberg 0.07%
15 SC Freiburg -0.09%
16 FSV Mainz 05 -0.33%
17 FC Augsburg -1.53%
18 1.FC Kaiserslautern -1.92%
0.00%
The relegation odds since the start of the season
