The playing strength ranking
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Change of Quotient Shift
|1||FC Bayern München||2.17||0.84||2.58||+0.03||+1|
|3||FC Schalke 04||1.84||1.18||1.57||-0.01||+0|
|8||FSV Mainz 05||1.49||1.48||1.01||+0.08||+1|
Goals ø expected 2.83
A swap of places at the top! This certainly comes as a bit of a surprise, especially now that Bayern’s 1:0 (very laboriously and, in their own estimation, happily earned) doesn’t look that much better than Dortmund’s 4:4. However, it is the goals conceded that make a big difference in the quotient of the very good teams. In principle, this reflects quite well the old wisdom that the attack wins games, but the defence wins championships. But if you look a little closer, Dortmund is still ahead in the category “expected goals conceded per game”: they concede 0.83, but Bayern 0.84. Would that be decisive for them in the championship fight?
Hannover AND Mainz are pushing past Werder. Sure, Mainz had their noses (clearly) in front in the direct duel and Hannover achieved another good result – even if the verdict remains that the victory was also lucky, a draw would be deserved for MG. Werder are thus in the bottom half of the rankings, with an odds ratio of 0.96, which perhaps doesn’t do them justice either, due to the many absences in recent games. However, it should be impossible to adopt absolute objectivity in all points, as otherwise even happily scored results would not be allowed to be entered with the scored goal values. No, this would clearly be going too far, especially as it was realised a long time ago that a defeat, even if unfortunate, had a similar effect on morale as a deserved one, which of course applies vice versa to victories (a lucky victory gives a boost and not a damper, even if as a player you feel that the performance was not quite perfect).
Freiburg also gain 2 places, one each from HSV and Nürnberg. Certainly because of their even better result, however, neither Nürnberg nor HSV did anything wrong, let alone played badly.