The point expectations and the deviations
This section measures the deviations that the teams have achieved from their expectations. The expectations are based on the values of the computer, which converts the chances for 1 – X – 2 calculated for all games into an expectation of points in the form of probability of a win * 3 + probability of a draw * 1. Of course, these expectations cannot be determined objectively, but rather the computer values. Nevertheless, there are good indications of which team has performed above its expectation and which below. The teams are sorted by greatest positive surprise to greatest negative surprise.
A comparison with other top leagues is also carried out regularly, which shows the average deviation in the comparison.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute1 Borussia Dortmund 62.98 72 9.02 9.02
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 47.02 56 8.98 8.98
3 FC Schalke 04 50.49 57 6.51 6.51
4 VfB Stuttgart 45.01 49 3.99 3.99
5 FC Augsburg 29.71 33 3.29 3.29
6 1.FC Nürnberg 35.18 38 2.82 2.82
7 Hannover 96 42.03 44 1.97 1.97
8 SC Freiburg 34.19 36 1.81 1.81
9 TSG Hoffenheim 40.15 41 0.85 0.85
10 VfL Wolfsburg 41.57 40 -1.57 1.57
11 FSV Mainz 05 40.03 37 -3.03 3.03
12 Hamburger SV 37.51 34 -3.51 3.51
13 FC Bayern Munich 67.94 64 -3.94 3.94
14 Werder Bremen 46.03 42 -4.03 4.03
15 1.FC Köln 33.62 29 -4.62 4.62
16 Bayer Leverkusen 49.76 45 -4.76 4.76
17 Hertha BSC 36.71 28 -8.71 8.71
18 1.FC Kaiserslautern 32.78 20 -12.78 12.78
-7.71 86.17
ø Deviation 4.79Another changing of the guard at the top! I guess the Dortmunders are gradually taking over the lead in all categories? The statement of this lead is this: the surprise team this season (in a positive way) is Borussia Dortmund. Can we get on board with that? Or would the eternal prophets, who simply waited for events to unfold, now say: “Why, the old German champions are back in first place and will probably be champions again. And that’s supposed to be a surprise? No, I don’t think so.”
Well, finishing in the same place as last year is one thing, but the number of points needed to achieve it – with a 25-game unbeaten streak, which is unprecedented in the Bundesliga – is another. And this is simply gigantic. Besides, one may well ask: who else should take first place, who else has surprised you so excessively apart from Borussia, the one from Dortmund? The problem that the other Borussia has is this: after the great start to this season, which soon saw them occupy a position far up the table, expectations have risen. But not those of the environment – at least these are neither meant nor measured here – but those of the computer. In this respect, they have not quite been able to fulfil these high expectations, generated by the outstanding results, in the last few months, and accordingly they have slipped in this ranking.
Schalke, on the other hand, in front after matchday 29, have the problem of having been a bit unlucky against Dortmund and also losing the other match in Nuremberg. Should you just show up at 1 after two defeats in a row? No, that wouldn’t be quite right either. So there’s nobody left but Dortmund. The table is kind of right.
At the very back actually the two who are also at the very back in the real table. This is true in that both have played so badly (unsuccessfully is a better word) recently. They were two in a group before, on par with the others, now they have fallen far behind. It would have been different if they had been behind from the start.
Bayern by now on 13 due to the one point from two games, but if they had picked up 4 points they would be almost in the (computer) target.
Augsburg on 5, which also makes sense, and Stuttgart even on 4, which is of course due to the excellent series, which was unexpected in the sense that it could not have been predicted by the computer, and thus resulted in a huge gain due to the dampened expectations.
The goal expectations and the deviations
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 44.49 46 38.29 22 17.80
2 Borussia Dortmund 56.59 69 25.58 23 14.99
3 VfB Stuttgart 48.88 59 45.70 41 14.82
4 FC Schalke 04 49.35 66 37.41 41 13.06
5 FC Bayern Munich 68.43 69 26.38 20 6.95
6 FC Augsburg 29.32 34 49.05 48 5.73
7 FSV Mainz 05 42.69 47 47.62 48 3.93
8 1.FC Nürnberg 34.59 33 46.25 42 2.66
9 TSG Hoffenheim 39.61 38 43.98 40 2.38
10 SC Freiburg 38.00 41 52.43 56 -0.58
11 Hannover 96 41.99 39 43.42 43 -2.57
12 Bayer Leverkusen 49.75 46 39.32 43 -7.43
13 Werder Bremen 49.66 45 45.25 50 -9.41
14 VfL Wolfsburg 42.86 42 45.67 56 -11.19
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 32.30 19 47.28 46 -12.02
16 Hamburger SV 40.16 34 48.83 55 -12.33
17 Hertha BSC 39.11 34 49.06 57 -13.06
18 1.FC Köln 40.24 36 56.49 66 -13.75
788.02 797 788.02 797 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 9.15
2.82 2.86 Gladbach in front again here. They have a fantastic goal difference and that is reflected here. But Dortmund are already in 2nd place in this table, no wonder with victories over Bayern and Schalke, the latter even away from home. Stuttgart are in 3rd place, just behind, and even Bayern are pretty much ahead, which proves once again that they’re not playing that badly, they’ve just distributed their goals a little unfavourably.
Werder, Leverkusen, even Hannover here in the bottom half, which is related to the poor goal ratios. Cologne, meanwhile, are at the bottom of the league, and we’ve often heard recently that they have the worst defence in the league and that they often collapse after conceding a goal. That also makes sense. HSV in 16th place and Lautern in a reasonable 15th place, which means that although it is often pointed out that they cannot score any goals, it is never mentioned positively that they hardly concede any either. So they are not that bad and this, like so many other things, is due to chance, which always has its fingers in the pie.
