Goal expectations preview for matchday 28
At this point we would like to preview the goal expectations. These are calculated according to an algorithm explained in detail elsewhere. These goal expectations are the basis for the assessments of the matches in terms of the chances for 1 – X – 2 in probabilities, and derived from this (through inverse value formation) the fair odds. On the betting market, however, the over/under is traded more and more. This means that you can bet on many or few goals. As a rule, three goals or more are “many” (and you win an “over” value), and less than three are few (and you win the “under” or lose the “over”).
Home Away Total Performance
| Wolfsburg | Dortmund | 0.92 | 1.81 | 2.74 | 0.38 |
| Freiburg | Nürnberg | 1.32 | 0.91 | 2.23 | -0.43 |
| FC Köln | Werder | 1.48 | 1.64 | 3.12 | -0.26 |
| Kaiserslautern | Hoffenheim | 0.94 | 1.23 | 2.17 | 0.02 |
| FC Bayern | Augsburg | 2.74 | 0.51 | 3.25 | 0.01 |
| Stuttgart | Mainz | 1.88 | 1.36 | 3.24 | 0.41 |
| Gladbach | Hertha | 2.01 | 0.81 | 2.83 | 0.03 |
| Schalke 04 | Hannover | 2.06 | 0.92 | 2.98 | 0.41 |
| HSV | Leverkusen | 1.33 | 1.51 | 2.84 | -0.05 |
| 14.68 | 10.71 | 25.39 |
Expected goal total Expected goal average
25.39 2.82 Both the “under” look very good in Freiburg and Kaiserslautern. Of course, the betting market will recognise this, but it is usually the case that the reaction there is not quite as clear as with the computer. The “under” at Freiburg is sufficiently secured by the negative performance anyway, at Lautern at least it does not speak against it, and the goal expectations are even somewhat lower.
The “over” in Stuttgart should also be indicated, and it is outstandingly backed up by the performance of +0.43. With Bayern, on the other hand, the “over” should hardly be indicated. With clear favourites, you can also see from the market that there should be more goals.
Cologne is not such a good “over” – even if probably indicated — as the performance is negative.
The expected determination
The expected fixing
| Pairing | 1 | X | 2 | |||
| Wolfsburg | Dortmund | 18.87% | 22.80% | 58.33% | 42.78% | |
| Freiburg | Nürnberg | 45.97% | 28.15% | 25.88% | 35.75% | |
| FC Köln | Werder | 34.66% | 23.68% | 41.66% | 34.98% | |
| Kaiserslautern | Hoffenheim | 28.11% | 28.99% | 42.89% | 34.71% | |
| FC Bayern | Augsburg | 83.90% | 11.48% | 4.62% | 71.92% | |
| Stuttgart | Mainz | 49.63% | 22.49% | 27.88% | 37.46% | |
| Gladbach | Hertha | 65.33% | 20.41% | 14.27% | 48.88% | |
| Schalke 04 | Hannover | 63.86% | 20.32% | 15.82% | 47.41% | |
| HSV | Leverkusen | 33.49% | 24.97% | 41.54% | 34.71% | |
| 4.24 | 2.03 | 2.73 | 3.89 | |||
| Average expected commitment | 43.18% |
A favourite matchday, although the Dortmund game in particular is not even above the figure for this matchday, so is not partly responsible for the high figure. Bayern are very clear favourites – well of course – with 71.92%, which is at the upper limit of the highest values ever. Otherwise, the computer sees Gladbach and Schalke as quite clear favourites – certainly somewhat different from the betting market.
