GoalEWPreview28

Goal expectations preview for matchday 28

At this point we would like to preview the goal expectations. These are calculated according to an algorithm explained in detail elsewhere. These goal expectations are the basis for the assessments of the matches in terms of the chances for 1 – X – 2 in probabilities, and derived from this (through inverse value formation) the fair odds. On the betting market, however, the over/under is traded more and more. This means that you can bet on many or few goals. As a rule, three goals or more are “many” (and you win an “over” value), and less than three are few (and you win the “under” or lose the “over”).

Home Away Total Performance

Dortmund	Stuttgart	2.47	0.74	3.21	0.03
Nürnberg	FC Bayern	0.75	1.89	2.64	-0.17
Kaiserslautern	HSV	1.02	1.17	2.19	-0.13
Augsburg	FC Köln	1.65	1.13	2.78	-0.01
Werder	Mainz	1.85	1.20	3.06	-0.21
Leverkusen	Freiburg	2.22	1.17	3.39	0.00
Hertha	Wolfsburg	1.49	1.38	2.87	0.05
Hannover	Gladbach	1.22	1.15	2.38	0.00
Hoffenheim	Schalke 04	1.18	1.50	2.67	0.29
		13.86	11.33	25.19

    Expected goal total Expected goal average       
    25.19 2.80      

From this week on, the column “Performance” is included. This calculates the goal performance of both teams from the last eight games only. This means: have they exceeded or fallen short of their goal expectations in the last eight games? The value itself is a kind of correction value. For example, it would mean that if you were considering an “over” on Werder against Mainz (which would be quite conceivable after the goal expectation of 3.06 goals), the performance suggested that it rather didn’t bang so richly, overall for both teams, in the last eight games, so you might correct the goal expectation down to the value 3.06 – 0.21 = 2.85 — after which the “over” is already much less palatable.

There is no comparison with the offers of the betting market for the time being, could be included from next season. Here is just an intuitive commentary on where things could go (in the sense of successful bets). With Dortmund, the “over” is certainly indicated. This also fits in terms of performance, which is at least not negative.

In the case of Nuremberg – Bayern, it looks very much like an “under”, since even the performance plays a role. On the other hand, one always trusts Bayern to score goals, so that it perhaps tastes a little less.

There is a clear “over” in Leverkusen, with 3.39 goals and a 0.00 performance, and even more clearly an “under” in Hannover, since the value of only 2.38 goals does not need any correction.