Goal expectations preview for matchday 30
At this point we would like to preview the goal expectations. These are calculated according to an algorithm explained in detail elsewhere. These goal expectations are the basis for the assessment of the games in terms of the chances for 1 – X – 2 in probabilities, and derived from this (through inverse value formation) the fair odds. On the betting market, however, the over/under is traded more and more. This means that you can bet on many or few goals. As a rule, three goals or more are “many” (and you win an “over” value), and less than three are few (and you win the “under” or lose the “over”).
| Home | Away | Total | Performance | ||
| Werder | Gladbach | 1.21 | 1.15 | 2.35 | -0.52 |
| Mainz | FC Köln | 2.32 | 1.27 | 3.59 | 0.25 |
| Hertha | Freiburg | 1.53 | 1.48 | 3.00 | -0.23 |
| Augsburg | Stuttgart | 1.38 | 1.50 | 2.88 | 0.37 |
| Leverkusen | Kaiserslautern | 1.79 | 0.68 | 2.47 | -0.03 |
| Dortmund | FC Bayern | 1.51 | 1.12 | 2.62 | 0.29 |
| Hoffenheim | HSV | 1.42 | 1.02 | 2.44 | 0.24 |
| Nürnberg | Schalke 04 | 1.01 | 1.55 | 2.56 | -0.03 |
| Hannover | Wolfsburg | 1.88 | 1.32 | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| 14.04 | 11.07 | 25.11 | |||
| Expected goal total | Expected goal average | ||||
| 25.11 | 2.79 |
The clearest “under” should be Bremen. Both teams with a goal drought for a long time, in front as well as at the back, which is noticeable in the performance. Since it’s 2.35 goals anyway, it’s actually clear: “under” play.
The “over” in Mainz is just as secured by the performance. Since the goal value is oversized with 3.59 anyway, it is similarly good as the Werder “under” bet. There MUST be a goal in Mainz, right?
The “under” in Leverkusen is confirmed by the performance, but feels anything but good. Lautern will try something with desperation, and you can’t say much about Leverkusen now, after the change of coach. So, quite clearly: Hands off the under.
The “under” in Hoffenheim is conceivable – HSV will fight for every metre and every single point – but not confirmed by the performance.
The “over” in Hannover, on the other hand, fits perfectly. Both are simply playing football at the moment, Wolfsburg have earned the chance to still make it to Europe, but since it was outside expectations (for a long time) this does not create pressure at all. Perhaps the derby character, he speaks somewhat against it.
The expected determination
| Pairing | 1 | X | 2 | |||
| Werder | Gladbach | 37.37% | 28.28% | 34.35% | 33.76% | |
| Mainz | FC Köln | 60.83% | 19.33% | 19.83% | 44.68% | |
| Hertha | Freiburg | 38.81% | 24.57% | 36.62% | 34.51% | |
| Augsburg | Stuttgart | 34.84% | 25.15% | 40.00% | 34.47% | |
| Leverkusen | Kaiserslautern | 63.90% | 22.45% | 13.65% | 47.73% | |
| Dortmund | FC Bayern | 46.08% | 25.91% | 28.01% | 35.79% | |
| Hoffenheim | HSV | 46.02% | 26.96% | 27.02% | 35.75% | |
| Nürnberg | Schalke 04 | 24.67% | 25.73% | 49.60% | 37.31% | |
| Hannover | Wolfsburg | 50.52% | 22.69% | 26.79% | 37.85% | |
| 4.03 | 2.21 | 2.76 | 3.42 | |||
| average expected fixing: | 37.98% |
Quite clear that the heavyweights eliminate themselves as they play each other. Thus an unusually low determination, only it is just easily comprehensible. All of football Germany will confirm anyway: a completely open match, hence (?) the tension. The computer even sees Dortmund in front, which the betting market is unlikely to confirm.
