The point expectations and the deviations
This section measures the deviations that the teams have achieved from their expectations. The expectations are based on the values of the computer, which converts the chances for 1 – X – 2 calculated for all games into an expectation of points in the form of probability of a win * 3 + probability of a draw * 1. Of course, these expectations cannot be determined objectively, but rather the computer values. Nevertheless, there are good indications of which team has performed above its expectation and which below. The teams are sorted by greatest positive surprise to greatest negative surprise.
A comparison with other top leagues is also carried out regularly, which shows the average deviation in the comparison.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 Borussia Dortmund 65.08 75 9.92 9.92
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 47.69 56 8.31 8.31
3 FC Schalke 04 52.11 58 5.89 5.89
4 FC Augsburg 30.84 34 3.16 3.16
5 VfB Stuttgart 46.91 50 3.09 3.09
6 1.FC Nürnberg 36.85 39 2.15 2.15
7 SC Freiburg 35.11 37 1.89 1.89
8 Hannover 96 43.89 45 1.11 1.11
9 TSG Hoffenheim 41.58 41 -0.58 0.58
10 VfL Wolfsburg 42.50 41 -1.50 1.50
11 FC Bayern Munich 69.82 67 -2.82 2.82
12 Bayer Leverkusen 51.06 48 -3.06 3.06
13 Hamburger SV 38.57 35 -3.57 3.57
14 FSV Mainz 05 41.88 38 -3.88 3.88
15 1.FC Köln 34.52 30 -4.52 4.52
16 Werder Bremen 46.91 42 -4.91 4.91
17 1.FC Kaiserslautern 33.56 23 -10.56 10.56
18 Hertha BSC 38.67 28 -10.67 10.67
-10.56 81.60
ø Deviation 4.53
Logically, the results keep Dortmund at 1, especially since they beat their direct rivals. Otherwise, it’s been more cobbled together everywhere except for the two teams in the relegation places, real as here, which are now well behind in this category. A little bit of evidence that – as can be read in the commentary on the table – one would rather not have expected such a dramatic development and early (pre-)decision in the relegation question.
Werder here now in the relegation place. Even if the deviation is moderate in comparison, with “only” 4.91 points too few, it is nevertheless an expression of Werder’s gradual downturn in the second half of the season, when in the first half of the season they already thought they had long left last season’s poor performance behind them.
Goal expectations and the deviations
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation
1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 45.19 46 40.04 24 16.84
2 Borussia Dortmund 58.34 71 26.29 23 15.95
3 VfB Stuttgart 51.16 60 47.13 42 13.97
4 FC Schalke 04 50.86 67 38.57 42 12.71
5 FC Bayern Munich 70.19 71 27.39 21 7.20
6 FC Augsburg 30.47 35 50.56 49 6.09
7 FSV Mainz 05 44.70 47 48.89 48 3.19
8 1.FC Nürnberg 36.03 34 47.27 43 2.24
9 TSG Hoffenheim 40.93 38 45.22 41 1.28
10 SC Freiburg 39.16 41 54.31 56 0.15
11 Hannover 96 43.87 39 44.58 43 -3.29
12 Bayer Leverkusen 50.98 47 40.65 43 -6.34
13 Werder Bremen 50.67 46 47.01 52 -9.66
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 33.01 21 48.80 47 -10.21
15 VfL Wolfsburg 44.13 42 47.68 56 -10.45
16 Hamburger SV 41.19 35 50.28 56 -11.91
17 1.FC Köln 41.66 37 58.77 67 -12.89
18 Hertha BSC 40.64 35 49.77 59 -14.87
813.19 812 813.19 812 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 8.85
2.82 2.82
Another good result for Dortmund, and they take the lead here too. Well, after all, the whole of Germany is raving about them, and Uli Hoeneß has been heard to have joined in.
Here Hertha and Cologne are at the bottom, because Cologne, as one hears again and again, has the worst defence, while Lautern – here a little proof of what has been said elsewhere, that their season was not so bad at all and that their oft-cited attacking weakness is actually countered by a defensive strength – are in 14th place, where they would be “safe”.
Augsburg in 6th place. Of course, admittedly, they positively surprised everyone, including the computer. Although Bayern will certainly be disappointed with the outcome of the season – well, minimum goal Champions League achieved –, there is still proof here that they were so good that they even positively surprised the petty computer in this category here.