The point expectations and the deviations
This section measures the deviations that the teams have achieved from their expectations. The expectations are based on the values of the computer, which converts the chances for 1 – X – 2 calculated for all games into an expectation of points in the form of probability of a win * 3 + probability of a draw * 1. Of course, these expectations cannot be determined objectively, but rather the computer values. Nevertheless, there are good indications of which team has performed above its expectation and which below. The sorting is done according to the biggest positive surprise up to the biggest negative surprise. For the point deviations, the sum does not have to be 0 in the “Deviation” column, as the expected draws cannot occur exactly and either 2 or 3 points are awarded per match.
A comparison with other top leagues is also regularly carried out, which puts the average deviation into the comparison.
The point expectations and deviations
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute1 Borussia Dortmund 67.55 78 10.45 10.45
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 49.68 57 7.32 7.32
3 FC Schalke 04 54.43 61 6.57 6.57
4 1.FC Nürnberg 37.91 42 4.09 4.09
5 FC Augsburg 31.60 35 3.40 3.40
6 SC Freiburg 36.82 40 3.18 3.18
7 VfB Stuttgart 47.43 50 2.57 2.57
8 Hannover 96 44.81 45 0.19 0.19
9 VfL Wolfsburg 44.22 44 -0.22 0.22
10 Bayer Leverkusen 52.89 51 -1.89 1.89
11 FC Bayern Munich 72.15 70 -2.15 2.15
12 TSG Hoffenheim 43.23 41 -2.23 2.23
13 Hamburger SV 40.00 36 -4.00 4.00
14 FSV Mainz 05 43.19 39 -4.19 4.19
15 1.FC Köln 35.57 30 -5.57 5.57
16 Werder Bremen 47.96 42 -5.96 5.96
17 1.FC Kaiserslautern 33.92 23 -10.92 10.92
18 Hertha BSC 39.19 28 -11.19 11.19
-10.55 86.09
ø Deviation 4.78Dortmund now so clearly ahead that the results of the last matchday can no longer spoil their top position.
Schalke and Gladbach in the fight for 2nd place of the surprise teams – quite astonishing, as they had been fighting a battle in the real league table for 3rd place until this matchday. So which team is missing out in front? Bayern, of course, from whom one (including the computer) simply expects more (than from others in any case).
With 2.15 points below expectation, their deviation is of course quite small in a negative sense, and their Champions League final appearance will compensate for much.
As Uli Hoeneß said months ago: of course he would prefer the Champions League title if he had to choose one, but it is far more difficult to achieve. Now it’s only a relatively small step, since Chelsea have eliminated Barcelona (without having been the better team).
The goal expectations and the deviations
Team name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation1 Borussia Dortmund 60.50 76 26.75 25 17.25
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach 46.81 46 40.78 24 15.98
3 FC Schalke 04 53.44 71 39.53 42 15.09
4 VfB Stuttgart 52.08 60 49.64 44 13.56
5 FC Bayern Munich 72.70 73 28.31 21 7.61
6 FC Augsburg 31.22 35 52.17 49 6.95
7 1.FC Nürnberg 36.92 37 48.55 45 3.63
8 FSV Mainz 05 46.04 47 50.32 48 3.27
9 SC Freiburg 40.89 45 55.54 57 2.65
10 TSG Hoffenheim 42.21 40 46.10 44 -0.11
11 Hannover 96 44.93 39 46.32 44 -3.61
12 Bayer Leverkusen 52.73 48 41.70 43 -6.02
13 VfL Wolfsburg 45.94 45 48.97 57 -8.97
14 Werder Bremen 51.96 47 48.82 55 -11.14
15 1.FC Kaiserslautern 33.47 23 50.96 52 -11.51
16 Hamburger SV 42.61 35 51.62 56 -11.99
17 1.FC Köln 42.89 38 60.50 71 -15.39
18 Hertha BSC 41.59 35 52.35 63 -17.25
838.93 840 838.93 840 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 9.55
2.82 2.83 As oraculated last week: another good Dortmund result (against a not-so-good Gladbach one), and they take the lead here too. The fight for 2nd and 3rd place here too between the same teams as for points, and it could be very close on the last matchday. Stuttgart (!) and Bayern are already right behind them.
Also behind, the two teams that have been so disappointing lately, quite far behind, and Lautern are in the mix, thanks to their still quite favourable goal difference. Sure, they scored 10 goals too few (compared to expectations) but also conceded only one too many. So it was certainly not due to the defence (despite the 5 goals conceded recently).
Werder, by the way, is also closing the gap and could even fall back to a relegation place on the last matchday.
