1. Bundesliga Overall Statistics for the 2011/2012 Season
In this category, an overall statistic of the Bundesliga is given, in comparison with the expected results in the sense of home and away wins, draws, expected goals, as well as furthermore the values expected determination/arrived determination and expected/arrived goal difference. What these values mean in more detail is explained elsewhere.
The statistics of the results so far
| Matches | Hsiege | Remis | Asiege | Htore | Atore | Heimvort | |
| arrived | 243 | 114 | 62 | 67 | 406 | 283 | 1.179 |
| expected | 243 | 113.17 | 55.84 | 73.97 | 391.3 | 295.5 | 1.139 |
| abs deviation | 0 | 0.83 | 6.16 | -6.97 | 14.70 | -12.50 | 0.04 |
| rel. Deviation | 0 | 0.73% | 9.94% | -10.40% | 3.62% | -4.42% | 3.31% |
Determination expected | Determination received | ||||||
| 40.84% | 40.76% | ||||||
| ø Goal deviation | ø Goal deviation expected | ||||||
| 1.89 | 1.87 |
As can be easily seen, almost all expectations are quite well met. The only notable deviations appear in the draws, where there have been about 6 too many this season, versus the away wins, where there have been about the same number too few. Since all parameters are automatically adjusted, there is no cause for concern regarding the overall quality of the predictions.
In terms of home goals, there have also been about 15 too many for the home teams, and about 13 too few for the away teams. This means that there has been a slightly larger home advantage this season. However, the deviation is well within bounds and the parameter adjustment ensures that the forecasts follow current developments.
As you can see with the expected and arrived determination, there was a very good ranking in general of the favourite positions, for which this figure is a benchmark. It was possible to commit so much, practice confirmed this possible commitment (a commitment of 40.4% corresponds to a favourite position for a match of 55% for the 1, 24% for X and 21% for the 2, as can be easily determined by squaring the values followed by addition).
The average expected goal deviation was slightly missed, but there were also atypically many high results this season, and besides, the deviation is of course absolutely within the bounds.
