The direct Champions League Quali over 2nd and 3rd place
The probability distribution after matchday 29 from a computer point of view
| Team | Number of 2nd places in 5000 simulations | Number of 3rd places in 5000 simulations | Sum of 2nd and 3rd places | 2nd places in percentages | |
| 1 | FC Schalke 04 | 149 | 4558 | 4707 | 94.14% |
| 2 | FC Bayern München | 3181 | 113 | 3294 | 65.88% |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1670 | 43 | 1713 | 34.26% |
| 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 286 | 286 | 5.72% |
| 200.00% |
Schalke now clearly on course. Gladbach with only 5.72% left and after their performance against Hertha you would think that they don’t even want to reach the place.
The changes in chances due to the results of the 29th matchday
| Team | Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday | Win/loss percentageMannschaft | |
| 1 | FC Schalke 04 | 584 | 11.68% |
| 2 | FC Bayern München | 208 | 4.16% |
| 3 | Hannover 96 | -3 | -0.06% |
| 16 | Borussia Dortmund | -204 | -4.08% |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | -585 | -11.70% |
| 0 | 0.00% |
Schalke as clear winner. Bayern also with growth, but this of course undesirable from their point of view, as they forfeited the chances they had gained of winning the title. Hannover in 5000 tries no longer with a 3rd or 4th place.
Gladbach with gigantic losses, but not for their (aspired) 4th place, which might be included in the calculation later.
