Part 1 Basic considerations
- Motivation for this book. To reveal methods that are profitable? The scientific exploration of football and, as a consequence, recognition for it is perhaps more appealing.
- The game with probabilities that no one can escape. All of life is like that, everyone is at the mercy of it.
- The quest for certainty. Mathematically, “certain” is probability 1. “Impossible” is 0. Both values do not exist for events that lie in the future.
- The reputation of mathematics in society
- The position of probability theory within mathematics. Fundamental problem: For the mathematician, there is only proof. A proof confirms the truth of a statement (“true”: value 1) or refutes it (“untrue”: value 0). Probability considered as a concept: Something “seems true”. This is uncomfortable, which is why this part of mathematics meets with even more scepticism, especially among mathematicians. Consequence: it is ignored.
- The scepticism in dealing with “probabilities” and their “calculability”. All events that are “not predictable” for the average person are regarded as “coincidences” or answered with thoughts about “fate”, “luck” or “bad luck”.
- Thought blocks. How likely is it to roll a 6 in two throws? Out of 1000, 999 are overwhelmed. One does not want to.
- Insurance is a bet. It is people with the highest need for security who make the worst or most bets.
- The artificial creation of events for the purpose of building suspense, entertainment, but also for additional taxation. Lotto, Toto Roulette etc.
- The stock exchange as a recognised game
- Other games/social, games of skill or entertainment, hierarchy?
Part 2 Football and betting
- Sport to do and watch yourself, take part. Sporting events are also artificially created and marketed. Those who watch are almost inevitably motivated to play, to bet. Specifically: football.
- The basic approach is to assign a probability to every event. If you have this, you can bet successfully.
- How do you calculate a football match? To make football calculable, you have to find the relevant parameters. “My football programme.
- “How are odds created?” The basic relationship between probability and odds.
- What is an odds bet? Explains the basic thinking behind successful betting. A basic chapter.
- “My System.” With this, the basic approach to successful gambling can be concretely understood. Simply instructive.
- Long-term betting odds (i.e. probabilities) are determined by simulation.
- “The betting market”. All odds offered on the betting market are examined here. Comparison of past and present. During the World Cup there are many new types of bets that are only popular then.
- What is a bet? When you make a bet, you should not bet on the occurrence of the event, but on the statement: “I bet that the odds offered to me are too high in relation to the probability of occurrence.” However, the only arrangement currently found in the betting market to make the bet is to place a money bet on the odds, the opponent “holding” that bet.
- Statistics. In what ways can the quality of predictions be checked? Goal expectations/home advantage/goal difference/draw/average goal difference etc.?
- Simplest but unscientific method: counting money.
- How predictable is football? Discuss problem of determination.
- In prognostics, every event is basically assigned a probability. Football is a random experiment that is only carried out once under the given conditions. This apparently does not allow any statements about the quality of a prediction. Here, the opposite can be proven: One can make statements after all. Of course, only if one examines more than a single prediction.
- The perfect prediction game. This follows from the previous chapter. One can examine the quality of a single predictor and, with the appropriate calculation method, compare the quality of many predictors with each other in a mathematically correct way.
- How are the parameter settings made? The playing strengths of the participating national teams must all be specifically revised, reconsidered, for the World Cup. The way it works: Each player is entered with the playing strength of the club team in which he plays. In addition, a factor for regular players and star players.
- “Calculation” of the odds for the World Cup by simulation. Group winner/who advances? Who scores how many points? Who scores how many goals? In which group will the most goals be scored? How many goals in total? Who advances to the eighth/quarter/half/final, who does not? Who will be world champion?
Possible supplementary texts:
- “Nothing is real”. Discusses the non-provability of any statement. Life itself is based on axioms. “I am alive” “Time passes”. Not provable.
- ” Chaos theory”. The chaos theory spiced with own ways of looking at things and experiences. Still part basis for understanding the whole business.
- “Murphy’s law”. The own history with it, but the chapter shows the existence of a mathematical law that has validity and also creates conditions for the basic understanding of betting.
- “The Pauli Ladder”: Fight – Reject – Tolerate – Accept – Understand – Internalise – Do it yourself – Spread. Pretty and funny, in any case also discusses a constantly reusable principle. Application here: Why not bet yourself?
- “On luck and bad luck”: Short and crisp, enlightening.
- “Philosophy of happiness”: Forms of happiness/measurability of happiness. Long linguistic introduction, but entertaining.
- “Happiness birds”: philosophy of a point. All aspects that can be put to good use, also for life.
- “More on the subject of luck and bad luck”: Short explanation of what bad luck can do. Wrong side – too much lost. Why complain?
Superordinate to play with:
- “The legal situation”
- “The payment morality”: How and where do you get your money? What to watch out for? Scepticism of many (would-be) players: I don’t send my money around the world.
- “Gambling addiction”
- “Betting fraud”
In addition, general discussions about gambling:
- “Simulations”: a few gambler’s careers among disadvantage gamblers, i.e. ordinary roulette players?
- “Gambling evolutions”: The fluctuations of probabilities in the course of the game. Examination of some, different games. Interesting, but one could also limit it specifically to football matches to explain live betting.
- “Rating systems” : Examination of rating systems used so far. Their quality deficiencies are pointed out. Then the mathematically simple, but correct, generally applicable system, which was found specifically, but already presented by predecessor Ernst Zermelo in 1929, is explained. Practical use? Also suitable as a prediction tool. Would even be for football if the one used there did not already exist. But algorithms still usable.
- “Turnovers”: Explains how you have to calculate as a professional player to earn your income.