Chapter Overview

1) Foreword
Name: Preface.doc
2) Introduction
Name: Introduction.doc
3) My Chaos Theory
MyChaostheory.doc
Contents: First meeting WM 1970, philosophical considerations,
religion – philosophy – mathematics
4) Insurances
Name: Insurances.doc
Contents:
5) The step-grandson
Name: The step-grandson.doc
Contents: Mathematics Stiffchild – Probability Stepgrandson
6) Sport Game Tension
Name: SportGameSuspense.doc
Content: The meaning of sport, the meaning of play
Sum: Experiencing tension, betting, and estimating?
7) Ratio of probability to odds
Name: WkeitQuote.doc
Content: Mathematical part, W-keit reciprocal of odds
Calculation examples (also for odds bets)
8)
The LaPlace Experiment
Name: LaPlace.doc
Contents: The theoretical experiment, LaPlace space, but philosophical considerations
Is there a real LaPlace experiment at all?
9) Permanencies and the consequences
Name: Permanences and the consequences,doc
Contents: Analysis of the permanences. Results. How good are roulette wheel and LaPlace experiments? Diagrams. Standard deviation
10) Murphies law
Name: MurphysLaw.doc
Contents: Radioactive decay, half-entry time, World Cup 1970, first meeting, philosophy, The misinterpretation in everyday life.
Type: Philosophy/Mathematics
11) The fair bet
Name: The fair bet.doc
Content: In the title, but: the game does not exist, example chess colour draw telephone
Type: Mathematics/Philosophy
12) The event space
Name: Event space.doc
Contents: A few examples, dice burn, many more outcomes than assumed, Mike Kitso’s story even-odd. Also: Paulsen’s ladder.
Type: mathematics/philosophy, small narrative part (take out?).
13) The organiser always wins?
a. Roulette
b. Black Jack
c. Lotto
d. Toto
e. Stock exchange
Name: ExaminationofGames.doc
Content: Examination of the individual games. Proposal of winning strategies or best possible strategy. Black Jack in detail with rules. Note: Take apart, divide up, assign to the stages of life.
Type: Mathematics
14) Bankruptcies
Name: Bankruptcies.doc
Content: Bankruptcies of professional players, why?
Type: Philosophy
15) A true prophet
Name: A true prophet.doc
Content: Story with Micha, put into a trance.
Type: Narrative (1994)
16) The meaning of luck and bad luck
Name: About luck and bad luck.doc
Content: About luck and bad luck, philosophy about it, narrative part twins (2000-2002).
Mathematical rule, event of x percent must overcome 1-x to occur,
Fluctuations, game developments, most favourable moment, feeling of bad luck, tail wind is not felt.
Relation to game developments, lucky and unlucky people
17) Even more on the subject of luck
Name: EvenMoreOnTheTopicOfLuck.doc
Content: Narrative part Roulette 100 DM on the 27 (ca. 1987), luck or bad luck when you lose too much?
This part is rather philosophical. Playing on the wrong side, losing too much, luck or bad luck? Tell story with Angie? (10 DM on the 17 when comes marry).
18) My practical contribution to the doubling system
Name: Practical doubling system
Content: Story with Horst 1985, won for 14 days.A bit of mathematics (expected value, and the negative).
19) Me on the wrong side
Name: VladProp.doc
Content: Narrative proposition with Vlad in Paris 1985, lost too much. Small lesson (philosophical)
20) Another woman’s story
Name: WomaninParis.doc
Content: After the prop with Vlad, in Paris 1985.
Type: Narrative
21) The early days of backgammon
Name:Backgammonanfang.doc
Content: Freiburg 83, first meeting. Chouette and moneygame, Hamburg, Munich, Bad Aibling (chess). Narrative, 83-84.
22) The final phase of Black Jack
Name: BlackJackEnde.doc
Content: A few Black Jack stories from before, then Scheveningen, Berlin thrown out.
The story about when I was banned in Monte Carlo would have to go in. “You know why.”
Must get to Black Jack from “Hierarchy of Games” urgently.
Narration.
23) The Goat Problem
Name: The Goat Problem.doc
Content: Philosophy/Mathematics. Philosophical: Why the letters to the editor instead of trying?
24) The Elosystem
Name: The Elosystem.doc Contents: Elosystem, purely mathematical, basic idea, weakness, my Elosystem, i.e. the Paul system presented with calculation, suitability as a forecasting system, incomplete.
Absolutely to Tennis.doc, but revise and combine.
25) The Harley Man
Name: The Harley Man.doc
Content: Harley Mann, backgammon, casino, bank robber, 1985, pure narrative, sapnning.
Fits roulette(hierarchy of games), simulations.
26) The Betting Market
Name: TheBettingMarket.doc
Content: About the betting market, traditional bookmakers, small narrative section (early days, 1988). N out of k bets, combination and system bets, Pascal’s triangle for n over k.. Asian betting market, price movements, betting exchanges. Live betting. Spread Betting.
Urgently revise, sort. Lots of maths, unwieldy.
27) Own assessments
Name: OwnEstimates.doc
Content: How bookmakers arrive at odds, comparing odds, making own assessments. Fits to: The betting market, but also to football betting. And approaches “Checking forecasts”. Rather general considerations, no mathematics, but boring. Some, however, necessary.
28) The Hierarchy of Games
Name: The Hierarchy of Games.doc
Contents: Chess, Skat, Backgammon, Poker. So is the hierarchy. Comparison, suitability as a money game. Absolutely divide, assign to games.
General considerations.
29) The payment morale
Name: The payment morality.doc
Content: A few general considerations, but several stories, narrative part.
Munich 1984, no money received. Night at the chess cafe 1985, 10 Euro cheques.
Sports betting Salzburg, office empty. Mix-up Austria for 6000 DM, 1992. Split up?
30) Own Swings
Name: OwnSwings.doc
Content: Stories, the firstb big wins, huge wins, negative highlights. Pure narration, exciting. Chronologically 1989 Superjackpot MC, betting 1993-1998. Some football games with big swings.
31) A few numbers games
Name: A Few Number Games.doc
Contents: The 14 Earths, the blown-up universe, chess Monkey-Kasparov. Phiosophy/Mathematics. Fits all considerations, even without reference.
32) First Steps
Name: First Steps.doc
Contents: First steps chess, first money prize, Klausen, San Bernardino (still missing), narrative, before 1983. Rottweil, Wolfgang Ludwig.
33) Expected value and equity
Name: Expected value and equity.doc
Content: Explanation of the terms (mathematics in narrative form), small dice experiment, character, Two envelopes – always swap? Paradox(on), fits. Quiz shows and the mistakes of the contestants.
34) Football betting
Name: Football betting.doc
Contents: Derivation of the idea of indeterminable probabilities, only one event with the conditions, my computer programme, overview first match day because of 100%. Short narrative part with the theoretical bets, trip to Austria, Abi with 25000,
First introduction to the possibility of testing the prediction. Transition to the next chapter, introduction, etc.
35) Approach to the problem of testing the quality of prediction
Name: Introduction3.doc
Content: Columns of numbers with different forecasters, increasingly complex examples, well explained, but a lot of mathematics, too much? Diagrams. Very long and detailed, perhaps too difficult.
36) Betting games
Name: Betting games.doc
Contents: Prediction games, like everyone(?) does. Fun forecasting. Short and to the point. General considerations, neither philosophy nor mathematics. Introduction to “the perfect betting game
37) The perfect betting game
Name: PerfectTippingGame.doc
Content: Derivation of the correct betting calculation procedure. Very mathematical, but that’s the way it is. But always correctly justified, no formulae. Story with Hauser in it, how I “invented” it? Refutation of the wrong approaches to calculation.
38) Lucky (mushrooms) and unlucky (birds)
Name: Lucky birds.doc
Content: Philosophy, about the point, the impossible event (sharing bread in the middle, offside), actually a lot of philosophy, nobody reaches their equity, simulation with diagram,1000 bets, good player.
39) My outing as a professional player
Name: Outing_as_professional_player.doc
Content: Professional comparison, philosophical. Recap of gambler’s career up to then, education, job, not enough. Backgammon, BlackJack on the side, successful. My software programme for football ready for the World Cup, narrative part of the World Cup, Germany becomes World Champion, nevertheless profit. Hide-and-seek game with software company, until one day … Mention media appearances.
40) Paradoxes
Name: Paradoxa.doc
Content: Some nice paradoxes. Philosophy, logic, softening of thought structures.
41) A true incident
Name: Paschjürgen.doc
Content: History of Berlin, Palace 1985, narrative. Then the mathematics to the example. Who makes the mistake and why? A few more basic operations, easily explained.
42) Swings
Name: Swings.doc
Content: Explanation of the term, example of American terms. Free narrative about this aspect of mathematics, easy. Swings as a long-term development, transition to simulations.
43) Simulations
Name: Simulations.doc
Content: Roulette simulation, typical player example, three “careers”, also the doubling player, several runs with diagram. Explanation of long-term power of mathematics. Belongs to roulette, but also player careers in general.
44) Game developments
Name: Game developments.doc
Contents: Typical game developments for the individual games, chess not yet in the diagram (missing!), backgammon match of Christian against John, London, interesting. Insert “game strengths”, well explained and interesting, but the place?
Further on football, development diagrams of some games, selection?
45) Tennis
Name: Tennis.doc
Content: Narration of tennis programme, wrong approach, correct approach. Formula for calculation. Fits to elosystem and playing strengths.
46) Independent events
Name: IndependentEvents.doc
Content: Cumbersomely explained, mathematical, no good examples,revise.
Narrative section: shooter in super jackpot, he looks in cup, Micha vs Sabet.
Gianni, cafe. 1:0 with Sweden win, good idea.
47) Turnovers
Name: Turnovers.doc
Content: Entrepreneurial risk, also of the player. How much turnover do you have to make, what percentage profit do you have to calculate?
Kelly factor (logical, Pauli factor)
48) How often is a double?
Name: How often does a double come.doc
Content: Calculation of the Pasch-Jürgen story. But also generalised. Also belongs to “Murphies law”.
49) How do you get chance on your side?
TheJumpsofRandom.doc
Contents: Schiesser Superjackpot 1989, Micha against Sabet dice exchange, Gianni ice cream parlour.