How do you check the quality of a forecast? The question alone sends shivers down your spine. “What now, please? Does the man want to be or become a prophet? A prediction, a prophecy comes true or not. And in terms of prophets, I’ve only known Isaiah and Jeremiah.” But that is not quite the…
The basic idea for this function arose already in my very early youth. I wanted to get football results as realistic as possible, for playing fun reasons. One of my favourite games played was simulating German Fußball Bundesliga results—by very different means, one being table football –, build tables, compare it to real tables –…
Gerhard Mayer-Vorfelder in Sport-Bild with “I bet that…”(… a small anecdote concerning bets and probabilities and how to deal with them) A small, anecdotal example of the nonsense that is constantly being spouted in the media with regard to bets and which is intended to illustrate the “naïve” handling of bets and probabilities, at least…
The predictability of football A question that must be asked sooner or later goes like this: “Is football predictable?” Of course, the answer seems as good as clear, and is sometimes heard from experts – football experts, mind you. It can only be: “No.” And there is also a very clear reason for this: “How…
The “calculation” of a football match As soon as the term “calculation” appears, especially in relation to a football match, the reader’s scepticism as to whether it makes sense to continue reading is likely to reach its peak. On the one hand, this would of course have something to do with the fact that as…
Now that the objective has been formulated in a limited way, so that the “calculability of football” can only be devoted more or less exactly to determining the level of probabilities for certain (the relevant) match outcomes, one can nevertheless very confidently go on to work on how one can get close to such a…
