The title question
1) The computer figures as a result of the simulation
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4985 99.70% 1.00
2 FC Bayern Munich 15 0.30% 333.33
5000 100.00%
Uli Hoeneß was invited to Sky 90, and if you’re looking for the one guy who knows what’s going on and who knows what he’s saying and who has a clue about what the truth is about football, it’s him. Franz Beckenbauer was also there, as was Marcel Reif, the chief commentator, but everyone is frighteningly in the dark, even if one admits in a very limited way that Marcel Reif didn’t just babble nonsense on Sunday, as one would actually have to assume in view of the horrible live reports he delivers. No, every now and then he let it shine through that there are rudiments of football understanding that had long been thought buried — and even a very slight interest in the game.
In any case, when asked whether he would congratulate Dortmund on the championship, Uli Hoeneß said that he would do so in due course, and would be happy to be the first to do so, but not before the game was theoretically wrapped up. 0.3% are left for Bayern – according to the computer. So why congratulate them before they have also forfeited? In any case, the collapse of a skyscraper is much less likely – and such a thing is also said to have happened.
On the other hand, why should one speak of “hope” in the context (since it is a desirable event from the Bavarian point of view) that they would still have? No, that is pure nonsense. They take things as they come, try to deliver decent performances themselves and of course wouldn’t give up the title voluntarily if fate wanted it to turn in the direction of Munich after all.
Uli Hoeneß was also in good form in other respects. He was asked again and again whether the players had possibly reduced their commitment to the Bundesliga here or there because of the Champions League? No, he assured, and there were no indications from the board to hang one competition higher than the other, especially since, as repeatedly emphasised, the Bundesliga was the bread and butter, while the Champions League grapes may be sweeter, but they hung all the higher for it. Nevertheless, he admitted that it was conceivable that one or the other might have focused a little more on this lofty goal because of the unique opportunity – which he himself had in 1974 with the World Cup final in Munich – of a final in his own stadium. But Patrick Wasserziehr’s insistence was of little help. They wanted to be champions, very much and actually absolutely. But the Dortmund team’s outstanding series stood in the way.
Were they afraid that Dortmund would overtake them and that they would have to learn something from Dortmund, from their management style, who had formed an absolutely high-quality team with lower personnel costs? No, says Uli Hoeneß, not by a long shot. That would only be the case if Dortmund could manage the balancing act between the Champions League and the Bundesliga for a few years and also achieve a few successes in the top flight without slipping in the Bundesliga at the same time, because this would only be possible with a higher personnel budget in all positions.
2) The changes in chances compared to the previous week
Team Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday Win/loss percentage
1 Borussia Dortmund 236 5.26%
18 FC Bayern Munich -236 5.26%
0 0.00%
Of the 5.56%, Bayern lost 5.26% due to the draw and Dortmund’s simultaneous victory.
3) The development of chances (from the computer’s point of view)
As much as it may look like it: the purple line is only scratching at the 100% mark, it has not yet reached it. That’s how long all oracles have to stop. “Dortmund does it.” “Yeah? Okay, would you get your fingers chopped off if they didn’t, you prophet?” “Uh, well, I don’t know that for sure after all…”
4) The estimates of the betting market (betfair)
Back Lay Probability (Back)
FC Bayern Munich 120 140 0.83%
Borussia Dortmund 1 1.01 100.00%
100.83%
Well, for 120 times the money you can still bet Bayern (but should still do the “lay” according to the computer). Dortmund you can’t play at all anymore.
5) The changes at betfair
Change(Back)
FC Bayern Munich -10.53
Borussia Dortmund 9.91%
-0.62%
Again, the market reacts more strongly than the computer, which is somehow a good sign for its quality.
6) The odds development (from the point of view of the betting market)
Although the difference is not visually discernible: since you map the “lay” price here (in the reciprocal), this line has actually reached the 100%. You can’t bet Dortmund anymore means you can’t find a doofus to pay you a rate. However, the “Back Bayern” is of course the comparable effect: you bet against Dortmund.
