The title question
1) The computer figures as a result of the simulation
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4985 99.70% 1.00
2 FC Bayern Munich 15 0.30% 333.33
5000 100.00%
Uli Hoeneß was invited to Sky 90, and if you’re looking for the one guy who knows what’s going on and who knows what he’s saying and who has a clue what the truth is about football, it’s him. Frankz Beckenbauer was also there, as was Marcel Reif, the chief commentator, but everyone is groping frighteningly in the dark, even if one admits in a very limited way that Marcel Reif didn’t just babble nonsense on Sunday, as one would actually have to assume in view of the horrible live reports he delivers. No, every now and then he let it shine through that there are rudiments of football understanding that have long since been buried — and even a very slight interest in the game.
In any case, when asked whether he would congratulate Dortmund on the championship, Uli Hoeneß said that he would do so in due course, and would be happy to be the first, but not before the matter was theoretically wrapped up. 0.3% are left for Bayern – according to the computer. So why congratulate them before they have also forfeited? In any case, the collapse of a skyscraper is much less likely – and such a thing is also said to have happened. Why should one speak of “hope” in this context (since it is a desirable event from a Bavarian point of view)? No, that is pure nonsense. You take things as they come, try to deliver decent performances yourself, and of course you wouldn’t give up the title voluntarily if fate wanted it to turn in the direction of Munich after all.
2) The changes in chances compared to the previous week
Team Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday Win/loss percentage
1 Borussia Dortmund 1435 28.70%
17 FC Schalke 04 -7 -0.14%
18 FC Bayern Munich -1428 -28.56%
0 0.00%
More profit / loss is hardly possible on a single match day. +28% compared to -28%. Schalke is said to be out for good, although it is 12 points, the direct duel is coming up and the 19 goals are theoretically catchable. Well, it hasn’t happened once in 5000 attempts, maybe it would in 100,000 attempts?
3) The development of chances (from the computer’s point of view)
The notch made plastic.
4) The estimates of the betting market (betfair).
Back Lay Probability (Back)
FC Bayern Munich 8.8 9.6 11.36%
Borussia Dortmund 1.11 1.14 90.09%
101.11%
The betting market also sees a halfway realistic chance for the Munich team. Even a bit more than the computer. Still a lay on them?
5) The changes at betfair
Change(Back)
FC Bayern Munich -32.50%
Borussia Dortmund 33.91%
-0.23%
Although the cut in the market is even more drastic than from the computer….
6) The chance development (from the point of view of the betting market)
Similar in all phases, only with smaller swings. Except for the last…
