The title question
1) The computer figures as a result of the simulation
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 3287 65.74% 1.52
2 FC Bayern Munich 1706 34.12% 2.93
3 FC Schalke 04 7 0.14% 714.29
5000 100.00%
Well, now it has become the duel that had been looming for quite some time. 0.14% for the underdog is still more than a per thousand, but nevertheless one doesn’t really like to believe in it anymore – with all due respect to the performance of the Schalke team, as can be seen in other statistics where they are ranked first (points and goals difference). However, since it is all a game of probabilities — and conversely one of odds on the betting market – it is of course only a question of odds: “Lay” Schalke or “Back” Schalke? With sufficiently good (or bad) pay, a deal could be done, so to speak.
The gap between Bayern and Dortmund large, certainly larger than on the betting market, especially before the (pre-)decisive match on Wednesday.
2) The changes in the odds compared to the previous week.
Team Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday Win/loss percentage
1 Borussia Dortmund 206 4.12%
17 FC Schalke 04 -2 -0.04%
18 FC Bayern Munich -204 -4.08%
0 0.00%
Dortmund as the winner on this matchday. The reason is clear: they beat the better opponent away from home by a higher margin. Schalke loses despite a 3:0? That’s also logical: they did THEIR part to take advantage of the minimum chance, that was the mandatory requirement. The competition, however, did not do their part in Schalke’s sense, as they were also victorious – and at the same time moved a bit closer to the finish line.
3) The development of chances (from the computer’s point of view)
When Dortmund were at 90%, the question was asked at this point whether the chances were gradually being converted, with the line constantly moving towards 100%. However, Bayern have also been at the mark before and it did not go any higher. Actually, such a chart should be an exception. One will be able to observe this in the next few years to see if it is actually true.
4) The estimates of the betting market (betfair)
Back Lay Probability (Back)
FC Bayern Munich 2.28 2.34 43.86%
Borussia Dortmund 1.78 1.8 56.18%
FC Schalke 04 210 350 0.48%
101.11%
As announced, the betting market remains at a more balanced assessment. Bayern have the chance on Wednesday, you can see that. If they pull all their forces together, one thinks, they can grab it, the victory in Dortmund.
On the question of Schalke “Back” or “Lay” comes out: this rate could be paid quietly, so “Lay “en – and even a bit more.
5) The changes at betfair
Change(Back)
FC Bayern Munich -3.76%
Borussia Dortmund +3.82%
FC Schalke 04 -0.29%
-0.23%
The changes are comparable to those of the computer. This shows that the betting market (or the computer) has correctly assessed the importance of the previous matches. In any case, in the comparison it is an indication of mutual correctness.
6) The development of the odds (from the point of view of the betting market)
Similar in all phases, only with smaller swings.
