The title question
1) The computer figures as a result of the simulation
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 3081 61.62% 1.62
2 FC Bayern Munich 1910 38.20% 2.62
3 FC Schalke 04 9 0.18% 555.56
4 Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
2) Chance changes compared to the previous week
Team Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday Win/loss percentage
1 FC Bayern Munich 763 15.26%
16 FC Schalke 04 -18 -0.36%
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach -36 -0.72%
18 Borussia Dortmund -709 -14.18%
0 0.00%
3) The odds development (from the computer’s point of view)
4) The estimates of the betting market (betfair)
Back Lay Probability (Back)
FC Bayern Munich 2.1 2.12 47.62%
Borussia Dortmund 1.91 1.95 52.36%
FC Schalke 04 130 350 0.77%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 280 1000 0.36%
101.11%
5) The changes at betfair
Change(Back)
FC Bayern Munich 16.85%
Borussia Dortmund -16.14%
FC Schalke 04 -0.56%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.27%
-0.12%
6) The odds development (from the point of view of the betting market)
