The title question
1) The computer figures as the result of the simulation
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 3943 78.86% 1.27
2 FC Bayern Munich 1033 20.66% 4.84
3 FC Schalke 04 22 0.44% 227.27
4 Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 0.04% 2500.00
5000 100.00%
Clearly the Gladbach defeat was unfortunate, undeserved. They probably didn’t play any worse than they have for most of the season and were close to 2-0 for a long time. That it didn’t work out with that and instead the (143) second death occurred, with the two goals conceded, was nothing but bad luck. Still, of course, it put a serious damper on their chances. 2 times in 5000 attempts succeeded – surely everyone intuitively says: “That’s it.” Whereas leaning too far out of the window has already cost this or that person their head….
That’s exactly why, despite the convincing performance(s) and further victories of Schalke, their chances are smiled at and not taken seriously. On the other hand, this chance is already at a scant half percent and is said to already occur in one out of 227 cases. Even if it is not directly accessible, this chance is better than asking a random person for his or her date of birth, who responds with the perplexing counter-question: “Guess what?” and you guess … and correctly. Well, it doesn’t happen practically.
Otherwise you just say, “They’ll decide between themselves,” and anyone who wants to be seen as an expert immediately adds, “I’ve been saying that all season.”
The lion’s share goes to Dortmund, of course, according to the computer. How the market sees it can be read elsewhere. There is certainly no doubt about the favourites’ position, at most about their level.
2) The changes in chances compared to the previous week
Team Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday Win/loss percentage
1 Borussia Dortmund 153 3.06%
16 FC Schalke 04 -5 -0.10%
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach -34 -0.68%
18 FC Bayern Munich -114 -2.28%
0 0.00%
Once again, there is a winner of the weekend. If you think about what the results could have done, you naturally come to the same conclusion, and even the mainstream media take this sentiment into account by talking about Dortmund’s convincing response to Munich’s victory.
The computer takes a decidedly sober approach, as is its way. A 6:1 away win compared to a 2:1 at home has, of course, the additional positive effect on playing strength, which is also reflected in the simulation results, but the main principle is this: the closer to the finish line, the more valuable victories are for the leader. The chances of stumbling, on which Bayern depend despite their own possible victory in Dortmund, decrease because there are fewer hurdles in the way.
Logically, they helped themselves to the Bavarians, namely those who had the most to give away.
3) The odds development (from the computer’s point of view)
4) The assessments of the betting market (betfair)
Back Lay Probability (Back)FC Bayern Munich 3.25 3.35 30.77%
Borussia Dortmund 1.46 1.47 68.49%
FC Schalke 04 75 80 1.33%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 160 250 0.63%
102.62%
Furthermore, the computer would advise you to invest your money in Dortmund. You get a handsome 1.46 compared to the fair 1.27 calculated by the computer. Well, the effect has long been established: intuitively, the betting market must rate the possibility of a Bayern win in Dortmund higher than the computer. Surely one forgets the home advantage for the moment or tells oneself that anything can happen in a single (deciding) match, apart from the fact that one presumably continues to assume that Bayern could form the slightly better team. The dance on three weddings is perhaps a little neglected for the moment, whereby the computer also knows nothing about this (as it has not been inculcated).
5) The changes at betfair
Change(Back)FC Bayern Munich -6.27%
Borussia Dortmund 8.25%
FC Schalke 04 0.33
Borussia Monchengladbach -0.91%
1.40%
Here, however, a reverse effect. Certainly, one should always keep in mind that there does not have to be constant trading on these values, so that the so-called “mass intelligence” is only formed by a few market participants. Nevertheless, it is astonishing that the market values THESE two results much higher than the computer. Did one notice a weakening at Bayern after they already failed to score a goal in the cup at Gladbach on Wednesday? Did they rate Dortmund’s six goals, some of them in high gloss, higher than the ultimate slap in the face to Bayern, who had already made plenty of jibes, as is their way?
6) The development of chances (from the point of view of the betting market)
Here you can make up your own mind.
