It’s about football. But there is a slightly different way of looking at football. A view that is unusual at first glance, one that will probably cause an outcry from every expert. There are things about football, as you can see here, that have not been said before.
The circuit that is taken here – always keeping in mind the goals that, roughly speaking, are concerned with the future, the preservation and the growth of football – goes from the current rules issues to reporting, to the predictability of football and the betting market, to a historical review of the German team in major tournaments, to conclude with a review of the 2010 World Cup in the light of the general considerations made. Each section has its own complexity, which is not immediately apparent from the mere list.
The section on rules takes a closer look at a number of rules, but questions both their correct application and their interpretation, which is shown to have a fairly clear general tendency. This is already a minor stumbling block, since everything that follows is virtually nowhere linked to the usual topics of discussion and argumentation, and this will certainly seem unfamiliar, if not unsolvable, to the reader, since there can actually be nothing unfamiliar.
The complex about reporting is fairly certain to meet with considerably more opposition, since sufficient private discussions but also observations have shown that there is a great deal of dissatisfaction about this among the German population in general. Of course, on the surface this may be attributed to the German’s propensity to complain. However, quite a few things here – especially in comparison with other countries – can be shown to be actually tense, boring and incompetent. There is a huge amount of catching up to do in order to bring German reporting up to international standards, and this is already being noted here in a very open and downright critical way. There is something rotten, and in this case not in the state of Denmark.
The complex about the calculability of football is quite demanding, as some mathematical content has to be worked out. However, there is certainly a great deal of interest in the possibility of calculating the extent to which this exists with the derivation of the relevant parameters, the resulting algorithm, implemented in a computer programme, the results of which are not only statistically powerful for past years, but can also be made available for the future for verification.
Furthermore, it is about the betting market, on which nowadays absolutely fair and entertaining (!) bets can be placed. This can make a huge contribution to increasing fan potential, but there is also a great need for understanding and clarification, which can be provided in the text, but which makes some demands that may be unfamiliar at first. For example, thinking in terms of probabilities is not only an unfamiliar concept, but also one that is rejected by far, although it is nevertheless necessary for access. The actual calculability is done with a computer programme that processes all essential parameters with each other and is able to determine probabilities by simulation. The probabilities determined can be statistically verified. In this way, many questions that have long been raised and eagerly awaited, but which are tainted by the acknowledged impossibility of an answer, can actually be clarified. It is just that the manner of answering them will also cause some surprise.
The fourth section will deal with a little practice. First, there will be a short review of the German performances at major tournaments. The focus will be on aspects of luck and misfortune, their consequences and the perception of these successes abroad, especially the great performance at the 2010 World Cup, which provides astonishing evidence for much of what has been said before. In the light of this tournament, the observations, problems, ideas and suggestions addressed in the text will be considered in a very topical manner.
