| Team | Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) | Relegation by relegation | Total | |
| 1 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 93.76% | 1.18% | 94.94% |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 30.68% | 6.99% | 37.67% |
| 3 | 1.FC Köln | 26.74% | 6.71% | 33.45% |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 21.26% | 6.53% | 27.79% |
| 5 | Hamburger SV | 12.14% | 4.81% | 16.95% |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 12.34% | 4.35% | 16.69% |
| 7 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 1.56% | 1.46% | 3.02% |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1.40% | 1.16% | 2.56% |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.26% |
| 10 | VfL Wolfsburg | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 200.00% | 33.33% | 233.33% |
It seems imminent that another team will bow out of the relegation battle. Wolfsburg have almost done it, it looks like. It would take an unprecedented losing streak combined with matching results from their rivals for them to concede. In any case, in the simulation they only finished 16th once (in 5,000 attempts) – which still doesn’t bring the curtain down. TSG from Hoffenheim will certainly have already started planning for the next (first division) season. 0.26% corresponds to about one relegation in 400 attempts.
Mainz and Nuremberg, however, are really starting to meddle a bit more seriously. Even if one has to make the observation that both have played in the games so far sometimes quite clearly above the level of the other candidates. Nuremberg lost very unluckily in Stuttgart and Mainz couldn’t use the initial momentum against Hertha to score a leading goal, then things took their course – and Hertha improved from minute to minute.
Freiburg and HSV almost tied, although of course the upward trend at Freiburg is currently very much in their favour, whereas the downward trend is clearly against HSV. On the other hand, such a target (the market would not share this assessment) would be highly suitable for placing a bet. Motto: buy the falling value, it will rise again. Whether one finds such betting offers (HSV stays in – HSV gets relegated) one would have to try to find out on one’s own. In any case, a conventional bookmaker would be scared to death if he had to pull such odds out of his sleeve (he can’t, it’s intuitive). On the other hand, of course, one is not obliged to believe the computer. Maybe HSV is the weaker team after all? Fink the wrong coach? Never does one seem to score better points among experts (even if only the self-appointed ones) than to question NUN, right here and now, the signing of Finke, best by adding: “I said that right away. He lacks experience, especially that in the relegation battle.” If HSV then easily stays in the league, they simply make off with it. By the way, you won’t be asked then anyway. Then those who say: “I knew he was the right one. And I said it from the beginning and always believed in him.” Nobody cares that these statements come from the same, interchangeable people. What’s said is said, the result is in place and the true prophets are waiting for events to unfold anyway….
Lautern has exceeded 90%. Whether with or without Kurz, Balakov the right man or not, there’s hardly anything to be done about the number. They are seven points behind the relegation place – that’s a lot of wood. A good 5%, however, is not as extremely little as one might currently feel as a chance to stay in the relegation zone. A win in the next game – and the little miracle (from 5 to 100) could take its course. In any case, Gladbach was already far below that last season – and look where they are now. Who wants to hear it? “Favre is an excellent coach. I knew right away that he would take Gladbach to the top.” But for God’s sake, that’s not from the author’s mouth or pen….
Augsburg have stealthily worked their way down to 27%. Of course, it takes a goalkeeper in attack, a free kick so rarely granted in favour of the attackers – surely because such a massive and formidable goalkeeper in his strangely awkward (how would you look yourself???) manner to the others. ) manner falls so strangely that you just don’t know it as a ref – and then of an alert linesman who recognised the ball behind the line as actually being there and indicated it to realise the last-second equaliser, but undeserved it certainly wasn’t. The luck was even more in the fact that Werder could with difficulty send 10 field players – whether equipped with a gap in their teeth or braces – onto the pitch, while a complete team including reserves was in convalescence.
The 1:6 really didn’t do FC Köln any good in terms of playing strength and chances – even if they could have even been in the lead in the 1st half and didn’t look bad at all.
The change in chances in terms of relegation due to the matchday 27 results
| Team | Opportunity Change | |
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 23.25% |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 11.03% |
| 3 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1.01% |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 0.08% |
| 13 | FC Augsburg | -1.11% |
| 14 | 1.FC Nürnberg | -1.46% |
| 15 | FSV Mainz 05 | -1.71% |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | -7.09% |
| 17 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | -11.31% |
| 18 | 1.FC Köln | -12.70% |
| 0.00% |
The gigantic, monster winner clearly the Berlin Hertha – as well recognised by the local (yes, you live in Berlin). 23.25% Chances (read: “danger”) taken away – that’s something. Sure, away victories taste especially sweet, on top of that with a team you could damage with 1.71% – everything just fits.
Cologne as the maximum loser. Here you can see particularly vividly how a 1:6 can put pressure on playing strength (and mind). Lautern, too, with huge losses despite the new man on the bench. Well, also here they lost, also here at a competitor (with +11.03%), also here with more than one goal (which continues to have a negative effect on playing strength). HSV also has 7.09% more than before. Well, how could ever defeat be favourable? Yes, it could: one loses, but the previously point and goal equal competitor loses higher.
The odds on relegation since the start of the season
Yes, admittedly, the Lauter curve looks dramatic. What is still striking is clearly that of Augsburg. For so long they were really the favourites for relegation and yet they have bent it this far (yes, the curve). Somehow you’re always inclined to give it to an absolute newcomer, aren’t you? There’s a simple psychological reason for favouring outsiders: somehow we all are. It makes you feel a little less small (attention, quotable!) when you do it successfully, the pushing.
