Note: here are the results of the simulation of 5000 runs. The 233.33% total is explained like this: there are TWO direct relegated teams, each of which ends up 100% relegated, making 200%. The team that finishes in the relegation spot (16) is generally considered a 2 to 1 favourite against the second division third place team. This gives a further 33.33%. The practical resulting pairing will certainly have different percentages than assumed, but this would both increase complexity and decrease transparency.
Team | Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) | Relegation | Total | |
1 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 96.78% | 0.82% | 97.60% |
2 | Hertha BSC | 48.16% | 9.37% | 57.53% |
3 | 1.FC Köln | 40.22% | 9.62% | 49.84% |
4 | FC Augsburg | 6.50% | 5.75% | 12.25% |
5 | Hamburger SV | 4.12% | 3.81% | 7.93% |
6 | SC Freiburg | 2.94% | 1.89% | 4.83% |
7 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 1.10% | 1.69% | 2.79% |
8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0.16% | 0.29% | 0.45% |
9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.11% |
200.00% | 33.33% | 233.33% |
The change in chances with regard to relegation due to the results of the 28th matchday
Team | Change in chance | |
1 | FC Augsburg | 15.54% |
2 | SC Freiburg | 11.85% |
3 | Hamburger SV | 9.03% |
4 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2.11% |
5 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 0.23% |
6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0.15% |
7 | VfL Wolfsburg | 0.01% |
16 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | -2.66% |
17 | 1.FC Köln | -16.39% |
18 | Hertha BSC | -19.86% |
0.00% |
The relegation odds since the start of the season