Note: here are the results of the simulation of 5000 runs. The 233.33% total is explained like this: there are TWO direct relegated teams, each of which ends up 100% relegated, making 200%. The team that finishes in the relegation spot (16) is generally considered a 2 to 1 favourite against the second division third place team. This gives a further 33.33%. The practical resulting pairing will certainly have different percentages than assumed, but this would both increase complexity and decrease transparency.
|Team||Direct relegation (17th or 18th place)||Relegation||Total|
|8||FSV Mainz 05||0.16%||0.29%||0.45%|
The change in chances with regard to relegation due to the results of the 28th matchday
|Team||Change in chance|
|4||FSV Mainz 05||2.11%|
The relegation odds since the start of the season