The departure of the Germans

Why was Germany eliminated in the round of 16 of the 2021 European Football Championship?
Well, the betting market had given its verdict: pretty even, but a slight advantage for the English. Where does this come from? Simple answer: the squad analyzes, which I was able to turn off with the help of all my data and software as best I could, showed: almost exactly balanced. Is it possible that even more people in the world came to this conclusion? The teams are equally strong. Is there a problem with this assessment? Probably not?! Lots of players on both sides who play at the absolute top clubs.
There is both a history of this game and a history of the mere results of the national teams. So it is possible that these two considerations also had an influence on the evaluation of this game, of course the “in advance”? It has, it can be assumed. Leads to the following result: in a direct comparison, Germany has prevailed very often – luck or bad luck or not – and in the most recent results, however, the English are ahead. In sum: the two considerations neutralize each other. It stays as it was: balanced.
Now comes the ominous home advantage. Well, that game took place in England. In London, in Wembley, where the story began more or less in 1966 with the legendary (Wembley non-) goal ?! Since then, however, Germany has been ahead, as already mentioned. Nevertheless: here and now, on June 29th, 2021, the English had to be given this certain advantage in front of 45,000 spectators, mostly of English origin.
The betting market has assessed it like this: slight advantage for England. That sounds absolutely realistic and convincing. And, a question by the way: who actually believes that the betting market makes mistakes? Well, he does – but not in this game. And: many do not believe in it. “In the end, the bank always wins,” one hears often enough.
Now this consideration: do you believe that national trainer Jogi Löw, right after calculating the chances and odds of the market, would still have an influence on it? If he had: then one would have calculated wrongly. However, this cannot be assumed.
Now the game takes place, under the given conditions: Germany progresses 45%, England 55%. So why should Germany go any further? One could of course ask if they did anything wrong, sure. But: the error analysis comes in any case and it boils down to: “You had to defend that better and of course use your own chances.” But you had no further influence on the distribution of chances. Despite all efforts, it stayed at 55 to 45.
It is curious that in Germany you simply cannot accept the result or do not want to accept it. The easy favorite has won, it’s the most normal in the world. It would have been surprising – as surprising as it is if the 45% came instead of the 55% – if Germany had made progress.
Nevertheless, you have to hear from a commentator during the game what was wrong and that Löw would have better stopped in 2018. Shouldn’t that make us think? If you really want it, then 45% are suddenly 95% – and these are still to come? Or how do you imagine it in Germany? In any case, there is “no reason to cry”, as was also learned. But what if you were sad for once? What if you weren’t angry, but instead empathized? What if you just cheered up and thanked the great footballers – from both sides – for the great entertainment they offered, knowing that in the end only one could win?
No, we should be angry and blame Löw – or whoever – for another happiness that was withheld from us? No, pretty much everything is wrong with that. Germany played well and still lost. They behaved exactly in relation to the previously calculated probabilities. That comes closest to the truth.