As already announced, the winter break brings so much change despite its brevity that one may very well speak of “the cards being reshuffled”, although of course there is already a table picture. However, the coaches are more and more successful in trimming the players or it is human anyway to leave the previous events behind and “start from scratch” after a break, even if it is “only” a three-week break. So even though some teams are far behind their season goals, it may be that they are now in a position to develop their true performance potential, which might not have been possible if they had stayed in the weekly rhythm.
Of course, it is legitimate to ask what the “true performance capacity” should be measured by, because one can certainly not read everything, if anything at all, from monthly salaries or the famous “market value” of the players alone, since there are also such sonorous words as “team structure” or “team spirit”, apart from possible misjudgements by those responsible when signing a contract and the development of the players, which can also happen very erratically, especially in the case of young players.
Well, long story short: the Bundesliga remains exciting. Once again it was confirmed that somehow everyone can beat everyone else and that nothing is as constant as change. First, then, the…
1) Review of the games
Starting with the…
Results of Matchday 18
Bayer Leverkusen – Borussia Dortmund 1:3 (0:0)
Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim 2:1 (1:0)
- FC Nuremberg – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 (0:1)
VfB Stuttgart – FSV Mainz 05 1:0 (0:0)
VfL Wolfsburg – FC Bayern Munich 1:1 (0:1)
FC St. Pauli – SC Freiburg 2:2 (1:0)
FC Schalke 04 – Hamburger SV 0:1 (0:0)
Eintracht Frankfurt – Hannover 96 0:3 (0:2) - FC Kaiserslautern – 1. FC Köln 1:1 (0:1)
General assessment:
It was again a fierce affair. All games were hotly contested. In almost every game you can still talk about several ambiguous referee decisions, who in the end, following an old insight of Christoph Daum, actually become more and more match deciders instead of just being match officials – the then smiled at view contains much more grains of truth than one assumed. The numerous missed penalties that were awarded – in contrast to usual, but there could have been even more – were of course spectacular, yet practically every one of these potential goals would have resulted in a change of tendency (1-X-2), which again shows that on many pitches things could very easily have turned out differently. The number of goals was below average, so that the phenomenon “in winter there are more points battles” could have taken precedence, but on the other hand you can see, among other things from the penalty miss problem but also from the large number of other missed chances, that it could have looked different here too. In any case, the Bundesliga is alive.
The games in detail:
Bayer Leverkusen – Borussia Dortmund 1:3 (0:0)
Everyone agreed, especially since this game was shown on free TV, that Dortmund deserved to win the game and simply delivered a masterful performance. It was impressive, not for the first time this season, to see how fast as lightning and fantastically secure the ball runs through the ranks and ends up in the opponent’s box often enough. In any case, the winter discussion about a possible drop in performance after the final defeat, which had been instigated deliberately or out of tension maintenance considerations, was put to rest quite impressively on the pitch. The effects on the title chances (which, by the way, understandably led coach Klopp to snatch the microphone from a journalist asking about Dortmund’s chances to eat) can be seen later.
Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim 2:1 (1:0)
Two striking features in advance: Hoffenheim presented themselves as sales masters and thus ensured the resignation of coach Rangnick in advance, but at the same time dismissed higher trotting claims, while Werder of course urgently wanted to make amends for the pretty completely screwed up first half of the season, but also recorded a prominent (but previously accurate) departure with Almeida. According to the match report, Werder deserved the victory, even if it was a lucky one, as Hoffenheim equalised shortly before the end and Frings provided the final shot for the Weser jubilation.
- FC Nürnberg – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 (0:1)
Of course, Gladbach was the prime example of the team that can only seriously create chances again if they get the depressing Hinrunde out of their heads. Certainly, the victory suggests that they have succeeded and sometimes a single such sense of achievement is enough to actually move mountains. Nevertheless, the outcome here can be considered lucky overall, as Nuremberg was denied at least one clear goal. In addition, one has to mention the missed penalty, which would have at least secured the division of the points, but also at least the one other penalty, which was denied to Nürnberg and could have ensured a different alignment of the game much earlier (Stanzl to Wollscheid). Nevertheless, even if Gladbach achieved an ultimately fortunate success, they put in a good performance that can be built on. The repercussions in the matter of relegation can be marvelled at later.
VfB Stuttgart – FSV Mainz 05 1:0 (0:0)
Mainz confirmed their good first half of the season with a committed performance. The fact that the points ultimately stayed in Stuttgart is probably due more to minor coincidences than to the change of coach, but Stuttgart were of course also allowed to get lucky.
VfL Wolfsburg – FC Bayern Munich 1:1 (0:1)
Certainly, the Bavarians were more than expected to win, especially as Wolfsburg will have to do without Edin Dzeko from now on, which should have considerably reduced their chances. Robben’s return was also in the offing, so one could be curious about the planned “race to catch up” or just a few more great Bayern performances. The new injury to Ribery (sustained in the game) is almost tragic and may have had an influence on the outcome of the game, which was probably fair, as Wolfsburg also had some good chances – not only from penalties. Well, this result could mean the end for Bayern’s remaining title hopes.
FC St. Pauli – SC Freiburg 2:2 (1:0)
As we heard (and saw in the summary) St. Pauli wanted to take the three points at the Millerntor with might and were at least twice in the game on a very good way by the respective lead. St. Pauli were the better team and deserved to win. The equaliser was also a curiosity when a long ball from goalkeeper Baumann bounced so perfectly (but by chance) between the opposing defenders and fell precisely onto Cissé’s foot, who then expertly lobbed it into the box.
FC Schalke 04 – Hamburger SV 0:1 (0:0)
Another example of reshuffled cards. While Schalke seemed to be well on the way to the top of the table, HSV’s free fall seemed almost unstoppable. In this match, at least, it looked the other way round. HSV showed their full potential, while Schalke left quite a lot to be desired, and the match thus showed a deserved winner, whereby one may well hold one’s own view that van Niestelrooy knew very well which part of his body he used to get the ball over the line and just as surely that part of his body was not accidentally in that place at the decisive moment… Doesn’t change anything: victory deserved.
Eintracht Frankfurt – Hannover 96 0:3 (0:2)
Eintracht could not make the most of the committed opening phase, so that Hannover had two chances – and scored twice. The subsequent phases of pressure from Eintracht were also survived without damage, so that on paper at least, the Hanoverian was able to score quite clearly. Whether deserved or not is perhaps somewhat less the question. Obviously, in any case, that it “just goes” for Hannover.
1st FC Kaiserslautern – 1st FC Cologne 1:1 (0:1)
As one hears, a highly dramatic game with an open outcome until the end. However, if you look at the numerous chances on both sides, the verdict “deserved division of points” is more likely, which could only be lucky from Cologne’s point of view, as the sending-off was probably an excessive decision (against Lautern’s Lakic) and the home FC, despite being outnumbered, still managed to equalise as well as some more chances. Nevertheless, Cologne could have won the game towards the end and had at least two aluminium goals beforehand (just like Lautern, by the way). Great game, just result.
2) The standings
The table after the 18th matchday
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff
1 Borussia Dortmund 18 15 1 2 46 42 – 11 +31
2 Hannover 96 18 11 1 6 34 28 – 27 +1
3 FSV Mainz 05 18 11 0 7 33 30 – 20 +10
4 Bayer Leverkusen 18 9 6 3 33 36 – 28 +8
5 FC Bayern Munich 18 8 6 4 30 32 – 21 +11
6 SC Freiburg 18 9 2 7 29 27 – 27 +0
7 Hamburger SV 18 8 3 7 27 28 – 28 +0
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 18 8 2 8 26 24 – 24 +0
9 TSG Hoffenheim 18 6 7 5 25 33 – 24 +9
10 1.FC Kaiserslautern 18 6 4 8 22 28 – 28 +0
11 FC Schalke 04 18 6 4 8 22 25 – 25 +0
12 1.FC Nürnberg 18 6 4 8 22 22 – 29 -7
13 Werder Bremen 18 6 4 8 22 25 – 36 -11
14 VfL Wolfsburg 18 4 8 6 20 25 – 26 -1
15 FC St. Pauli 18 5 3 10 18 – 32 -14
16 1.FC Köln 18 4 4 10 16 19 – 34 -15
17 VfB Stuttgart 18 4 3 11 15 33 – 35 -2
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 18 3 4 11 13 27 – 47 -20
502 502 0
Goals ø 3.10 Still a picture to marvel at. Surely one has got used to the sight with Dortmund on 1, but the clarity of the lead can surprise again and again. Behind them, however, there is nothing that seems boring or self-evident. Hannover and Mainz, Leverkusen, the first heavyweight, at 4, ahead of Bayern. And also further down surprises without end, or at least no familiar, expected picture. Stuttgart has the win, but remains in the relegation spot, Schalke, Werder Wolfsburg still clearly behind, and also HSV, despite victory, only in 9th place. Well, excitement is guaranteed.
3) The title question
Here, too, we can be rather brief, It must have shifted gigantically n the direction of Dortmund, and, look briefly at the confirmation in the numbers:
The distribution of chances to win the title in 2011 after the 18th matchday
Team Number German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities1 Borussia Dortmund 4850 97.00% 1
2 FC Bayern Munich 92 1.84% 54
3 Bayer Leverkusen 40 0.80% 125
4 FSV Mainz 05 11 0.22% 455
5 Hannover 96 3 0.06% 1666.67
6 Hamburger SV 3 0.06% 1667
7 SC Freiburg 1 0.02% 5000
8 Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
9 VfL Wolfsburg 0 0.00%
10 VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
11 TSG Hoffenheim 0 0.00%
12 FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
13 FC Schalke 04 0 0.00%
14 Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0.00%
15 Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
16 1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
17 1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
18 1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Dortmund therefore at 97%, that’s enough said on the subject, the result: boredom. Landslides would have to happen for anyone to enjoy a “discussion” again.
Likewise, the question of changes will not be a hotly debated one.
Changes in chances compared to the previous week due to the results of matchday 18
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championships in percent
Borussia Dortmund 337 6.74%
Hamburger SV 1 0.02%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
SC Freiburg 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
VfL Wolfsburg 0 0.00%
Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
Eintracht Frankfurt -2 -0.04%
Hannover 96 -4 -0.08%
TSG Hoffenheim -4 -0.08%
FC Schalke 04 -5 -0.10%
FSV Mainz 05 -9 -0.18%
FC Bayern Munich -144 -2.88%
Bayer Leverkusen -170 -3.40%
0 0.00%
Once again, the usual picture: Dortmund towering in first place, thanks clearly to the victory in Leverkusen, which deserves the predicates “deserved” and “sovereign”. As much as the public discussions were perhaps intended to unsettle Dortmund in the hope of a different result, the bow to Borussia Dortmund must now be as deep. What if… simply doesn’t help. The respect is there. And it is appropriate, even if we now have to do without the hoped-for excitement. With the hat in hand and full of admiration for the performance and the performances that can be expected in the future, it is possible to live quite well, I can assure you, even for those who could identify less with Dortmund before…
4) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
As artificial as the creation of suspense for a championship decision in the table without Borussia Dortmund may seem, it is a given. And it is also possible to make friends with it. Should a team like Hannover really be able to spit in the Champions League soup of the ambitious Bavarians?
The probability distribution for 2nd place after the 18th matchday
Team Number of 2nd places 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
FC Bayern Munich 2170 43.40% 2.30
Bayer Leverkusen 1575 31.50% 3.17
FSV Mainz 05 449 8.98% 11.14
Hannover 96 302 6.04% 16.56
Hamburger SV 177 3.54% 28.25
Borussia Dortmund 124 2.48% 40.32
SC Freiburg 63 1.26% 79.37
TSG Hoffenheim 60 1.20% 83.33
FC Schalke 04 37 0.74% 135.14
Werder Bremen 22 0.44% 227.27
Eintracht Frankfurt 11 0.22% 454.55
VfL Wolfsburg 10 0.20% 500.00
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
At least Bayern remain ahead here. Leverkusen, too, would at least like to be in the mix a little, according to their own claims, but also according to the computer. There are also a few outsiders, among them Borussia Dortmund, who have lost a lot of chances for second place due to their victory… And that is anything but paradoxical.
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team Win/Loss absolute Win/Loss in per cent.
FC Bayern Munich 199 3.98%
Hannover 96 193 3.86%
Hamburger SV 128 2.56%
Werder Bremen 16 0.32%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern -1 -0.02%
1.FC Nuremberg -2 -0.04%
VfL Wolfsburg -8 -0.16%
FSV Mainz 05 -22 -0.44%
Eintracht Frankfurt -23 -0.46%
SC Freiburg -26 -0.52%
FC Schalke 04 -37 -0.74%
Bayer Leverkusen -66 -1.32%
TSG Hoffenheim -87 -1.74%
Borussia Dortmund -264 -5.28%
0 0.00%
Well, it’s amazing what computer logic can reveal – and then leave people with a questioning face. Or could we seriously expect Bayern to significantly improve their chances of finishing second with a draw in Wolfsburg? Well, you have to interpret the phenomenon and possibly add another piece of the mosaic to the realisation that computers may be really stupid, but they do not act illogically.
Part of the improvement in the odds is recruited, immediately obvious, from the decline in the odds on place 1. Where should the best (without Dortmund, but this table is poked at) team end up already? The other part of the increase in chances, however, results from the match between Dortmund and Leverkusen, which was played in parallel (i.e. on the same match day) – in this case really by chance – with the ultimately fortunate outcome of a Dortmund victory for the development of chances in this category now being examined, since the main competitor for second place lost, however much one may dislike fighting for this place from Bayern’s point of view.
Furthermore, logically, the winners of the matchday got a slight boost, while the losers had to cede chances. Leverkusen did lose some, but contrary to the above reasoning, not quite as much as expected, as even Hoffenheim squeezed in. So one has to fall back more on part 1 of the argumentation regarding Bayern’s chances. Overall, one could possibly say that the results were favourable for Bayern in terms of the fight for second place.
5) The relegation question
The question of relegation, on the other hand, is a little more exciting after the 18th matchday, since all three of the teams in that position have scored points, and Cologne’s point, since it was earned away from home, can also be considered a success. St. Pauli did not lose either, so let’s first look at the current distribution of chances, as determined by the computer:
The distribution of the percentages for relegation
Note: The value of being relegated via the relegation is an estimated value. The first league team is rated as a 2:1 favourite against the third-placed team in the times league, generally.
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation via relegation Total1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 77.72% 3.83% 81.55%
2 FC St. Pauli 48.10% 6.81% 54.91%
3 1.FC Köln 40.92% 7.35% 48.27%
4 VfB Stuttgart 12.10% 4.49% 16.59%
5 1.FC Nuremberg 11.54% 5.03% 16.57%
6 1.FC Kaiserslautern 5.26% 2.81% 8.07%
7 VfL Wolfsburg 1.70% 0.99% 2.69%
8 Werder Bremen 0.92% 0.64% 1.56%
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.90% 0.64% 1.54%
10 FC Schalke 04 0.42% 0.32% 0.74%
11 TSG Hoffenheim 0.18% 0.19% 0.37%
12 SC Freiburg 0.18% 0.15% 0.33%
13 Hamburger SV 0.06% 0.07% 0.13%
14 Hannover 96 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
15 FSV Mainz 05 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
16 FC Bayern Munich 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
17 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 Borussia Dortmund 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
As you can see, Gladbach is still above 80%, but 80% is still relatively far from being perceived as “safe”, especially since the last victory has boosted self-confidence – which is certainly also transmitted to the fans – and thus initially provides some optimism (a “value” that cannot be expressed mathematically). Behind them, St. Pauli are even ahead of Cologne (in terms of the size of the threat), which is due to the computer’s assumption that Cologne’s playing strength is higher.
Even more exciting is the question of the change in chances compared to the last matchday.
The change in chances from the 17th to the 18th matchday with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances
1 VfB Stuttgart -6.61%
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach -5.32%
3 Werder Bremen -1.65%
4 Hamburger SV -0.32%
5 Hannover 96 -0.07%
6 FSV Mainz 05 -0.01%
7 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00%
8 Borussia Dortmund 0.00%
9 FC Bayern Munich 0.00%
10 SC Freiburg 0.01%
11 TSG Hoffenheim 0.29%
12 FC Schalke 04 0.39%
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.73%
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.07%
15 FC St. Pauli 1.09%
16 1.FC Cologne 1.22%
17 VfL Wolfsburg 1.43%
18 1.FC Nuremberg 7.75%
0.00%
As you can see, there are logically two big winners. They were in relegation places and both won. Stuttgart and Gladbach are far ahead, which makes sense and at the same time increases the suspense, which, as mentioned above, is derived from uncertainty about the outcome, as well as from developments and (surprising) shifts in the odds.
The small Gladbach miracle has gained some nourishment. The fact that their chances have improved less than those of Stuttgart, who came up with a kind of compulsory home win while Gladbach went into the tough away game, at a rival at that (which would then, along with a win, have to mean a further considerable increase in their chances of staying in the class), is simply because they were already so far behind in the size of the odds that they have to tinker with the miracle a little longer. Translated, they need more than just one such victory to get quite seriously involved.
At the other end, this is documented by the significant loss of Nuremberg’s chances. Not only have they lost to a rival, but in addition at home and against the (supposedly) weakest eleven. That costs, and it costs considerably.
It is astonishing that the so to speak announced perceived improvement of Cologne’s chances is illusion (well, the talk was only about a favourable result, which is certainly true generally speaking). They have lost opportunities. However, here, too, the logic that the computer follows shows that it is “inexorable” compared to pure intuition. Cologne only lost chances because their biggest rivals won and they only achieved a draw, good or pleasing result or not.
6) The points expectations and the deviations
First of all, here are the bare figures:
(Note: The sorting has been done again this week according to the original table).
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute1 Borussia Dortmund 31.24 46 14.76 14.76
2 Hannover 96 20.55 34 13.45 13.45
3 Bayer Leverkusen 29.68 33 3.32 3.32
4 FSV Mainz 05 24.43 33 8.57 8.57
5 FC Bayern Munich 34.77 30 -4.77 4.77
6 SC Freiburg 21.49 29 7.51 7.51
7 Hamburger SV 27.21 27 -0.21 0.21
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 22.45 26 3.55 3.55
9 TSG Hoffenheim 26.43 25 -1.43 1.43
10 1.FC Nürnberg 19.89 22 2.11 2.11
11 FC Schalke 04 28.34 22 -6.34 6.34
12 1.FC Kaiserslautern 21.03 22 0.97 0.97
13 Werder Bremen 28.38 22 -6.38 6.38
14 VfL Wolfsburg 27.25 20 -7.25 7.25
15 FC St. Pauli 18.85 18 -0.85 0.85
16 1.FC Köln 18.88 16 -2.88 2.88
17 VfB Stuttgart 27.16 15 -12.16 12.16
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 19.53 13 -6.53 6.53
5.45 103.03
ø Deviation 5.72The first team in the top half of the table to show a negative deviation is Bayern Munich. However, it should be mentioned again that the 4.77 points are not such a gigantic deviation. One win instead of one defeat and they would almost be in the “normal” category. The fact that they hardly stand a chance is due to the one-time high-flyer Borussia Dortmund. The fact that HSV has almost fulfilled its expectations probably surprises not only the reader. But it is a strong and balanced league and with a big point like the one at Schalke you can make up some ground. The unlucky team in the league remains Hoffenheim, who are only 1.43 points below expectations but have conceded an unfavourable, tendency-changing goal shortly before the end for the sixth time (and only scored one comparable goal).
Stuttgart remain at the bottom, but even the ambitious title winners of 2009, VfL Wolfsburg, are lagging behind in their expectations (and recognisably “expectations” in the sense of points, which the computer even believed they had). Then Gladbach, Schalke and Werder follow and one has a good idea why. They haven’t found their way so far, although Gladbach just put the famous exclamation mark on it.
The average deviation is 5.72 points, a reduction from the previous matchday, which already poses considerable problems for the human interpreter of the phenomenon: After all, the results again contained so many surprises that one should not expect a “better sorted table picture” to emerge, which is what the number originally stood for?
Well, it is actually the case that some teams had higher absolute deviations from their expectation (and the absolute number of deviation is responsible for the average one). Of these teams, slightly more have achieved a result in the direction of correction, i.e. in the direction of reducing the absolute deviation. This is not necessarily and directly related to the number of surprises, since the Gladbach victory, for example, is a surprise, but at the same time has a corrective effect, since both Nuremberg (who were previously above expectation) and Gladbach (who were below) took a development in the direction of lower absolute deviation. So for this week, one would only have to speak of the constellations in the pairings being favourable in combination with the results in order to reduce the deviation.
Of course, the overall table picture remains surprising. At this point, however, only the individual point deviations of the teams were considered and for these the results were favourable (you can certainly feel your own need for explanation).
7) Goal expectations and their deviations
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation1 Borussia Dortmund 31.19 42 21.00 11 20.81
2 FSV Mainz 05 25.61 30 26.45 20 10.84
3 Hannover 96 22.51 28 29.35 27 7.84
4 TSG Hoffenheim 27.64 33 24.91 24 6.26
5 1.FC Kaiserslautern 23.23 28 29.29 28 6.06
6 SC Freiburg 23.72 27 29.09 27 5.37
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 23.69 24 27.31 24 3.63
8 1.FC Nürnberg 22.01 22 29.95 29 0.94
9 Bayer Leverkusen 30.89 36 23.15 28 0.26
10 Hamburger SV 28.04 28 24.25 28 -3.80
11 FC Bayern Munich 32.88 32 17.26 21 -4.62
12 FC St. Pauli 20.53 18 29.79 32 -4.75
13 VfL Wolfsburg 28.34 25 24.51 26 -4.83
14 1.FC Köln 21.63 19 31.41 34 -5.22
15 FC Schalke 04 28.83 25 23.11 25 -5.72
16 VfB Stuttgart 29.34 33 25.61 35 -5.73
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 24.15 27 33.42 47 -10.73
18 Werder Bremen 30.49 25 24.88 36 -16.61
0.00
We don’t need to say too many words about number 1 now. About 10 “too many” scored and 10 “too few” conceded, however, in view of the outstanding performances one is inclined to blame the two ratings on the computer’s imagination. It was perhaps not predictable, but in retrospect clearly deserved and justified. The 2nd place for Mainz also remains quite unchallenged. Here it’s all about goals and they are clearly better than Hannover and even an unfortunate defeat like the one in Stuttgart can’t shake their position.
It is logical that Hannover also followed suit with a 3:0 victory, which even improved the goal difference. It should also be mentioned that in midfield, a runaway result could easily cause it to flip, at least in terms of goals. So if Freiburg were to concede a 1:5 or Bayern a similar victory, one team could end up in the black in a flash, the other in the red. And who could rule out such a thing?
At the back, of course, remain the usual suspects, who are there thanks to the fairly historic flood of goals conceded on both sides. Werder and Gladbach, however, have both not only won, but have also kept their defences reasonably tight. A turnaround? We shall see…
8) The strength of play ranking
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.92 0.95 2.02 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 1.93 1.04 1.86 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.84 1.37 1.34 +0
4 FC Schalke 04 1.56 1.22 1.28 +0
5 Hamburger SV 1.61 1.39 1.16 +3
6 VfL Wolfsburg 1.5 1.31 1.15 -1
7 Werder Bremen 1.61 1.42 1.13 +0
8 TSG Hoffenheim 1.58 1.43 1.10 -2
9 VfB Stuttgart 1.65 1.6 1.03 +0
10 FSV Mainz 05 1.42 1.39 1.02 +0
11 SC Freiburg 1.4 1.51 0.93 +0
12 Hannover 96 1.39 1.58 0.88 +1
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 1.5 0.84 -1
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.29 1.64 0.79 +0
15 1.FC Köln 1.18 1.69 0.70 +0
16 1.FC Nürnberg 1.15 1.69 0.68 +0
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.3 2.08 0.63 +0
18 FC St. Pauli 1.05 1.81 0.58 +0
26.64 26.62
The changes resulted from HSV’s win at Schalke, which proved valuable, and Hoffenheim’s defeat at the same time, and the swap of places at Hannover and Frankfurt is logical: the one behind won clearly away from home.
9) The mathematical review of the matchday 18 results
First of all, the evaluation in terms of the predicted goal expectations:
Goal expectation
Home Away Result DeviationLeverkusen Dortmund 1.36 1.51 1 3 -0.36 1.49
Bremen Hoffenheim 1.61 1.4 2 1 0.39 -0.40
Nürnberg Gladbach 2.03 1.41 0 1 -2.03 -0.41
Stuttgart Mainz 1.81 1.56 1 0 -0.81 -1.56
Wolfsburg FC Bayern 1.25 1.58 1 1 -0.25 -0.58
St. Pauli Freiburg 1.18 1.47 2 2 0.82 0.53
Schalke 04 HSV 1.81 1.13 0 1 -1.81 -0.13
Frankfurt Hannover 1.51 1.1 0 3 -1.51 1.90
Kaiserslautern FC Cologne 1.74 1.11 1 -0.74 -0.11
14.31 12.28 8 13 -6.30 0.73
Expected goal total Expected goal total: Goal total: Goal total
26.59 2.95 21 2.33
ø Goal difference: 1.76 As you can see, the home teams have been responsible for the far too low goal yield. They have scored 6.3 goals too few. Nuremberg are a whole 2 goals short, Stuttgart also almost 1, Schalke almost 2 and Frankfurt and Kaiserslautern have also clearly underachieved. This means there were only 2.33 goals per game, which again means a slight downward correction of the overall goal average.
The average goal deviation, however, is moderate at 1.76, i.e. almost in line with the long-term average (which is around 1.82), thus even slightly below, which on the one hand points to few surprises (because such surprises logically raise this figure), but at the same time provides the logical explanation: If too few goals are scored, the deviations cannot be that high, even if there are surprises (as happened on this matchday). In this context, remember the 3:5 of Stuttgart – Bayern, which resulted in a very large deviation, but only because there were so many goals. Yet another attempt to make this illustrative: low-scoring games offer little scope for big surprises.
Here again are the figures calculated in December, i.e. after the end of the first round, in the form of probabilities for the match outcomes 1-X-2:
Pairing 1 X 2 erw ø W-keit
Leverkusen Dortmund 34.16% 25.06% 40.78% 34.58%
Bremen Hoffenheim 42.52% 24.33% 33.15% 34.99%
Nürnberg Gladbach 51.91% 21.60% 26.49% 38.63%
Stuttgart Mainz 43.85% 22.73% 33.42% 35.56%
Wolfsburg FC Bayern 30.10% 24.93% 44.97% 35.50%
St. Pauli Freiburg 30.30% 25.99% 43.71% 35.04%
Schalke 04 HSV 53.22% 23.23% 23.55% 39.26%
Frankfurt Hannover 46.49% 25.88% 27.63% 35.95%
Kaiserslautern FC Cologne 51.90% 23.86% 24.25% 38.50%
4.84 2.18 4.98 3.28
Expected fixing for the whole matchday: 36.45%
For the first time, the column “expected average probability” was included here before the winter break, which at the same time was described conceptually as “determination”. The interpretation of this term again gladly for illustration. Basically, the question is: How much can one commit to a favourite event?
One senses that there are favourites in the individual pairings from time to time. Sometimes these are clearer, sometimes less so. On the other hand, you often hear the statement that the league is so balanced that anyone can beat anyone. Here we are now looking for the appropriate measure of how much one can determine that this or that team is favourite (in a few exceptional cases also the draw).
This measure found must of course be confirmed by the results. So if you think you have found a favourite (normally the only team that comes to mind by default is Bayern, who are actually almost always favourites), it must of course also win more often in practice. This does not have to happen in a single match, but in the long term.
For this matchday, a value of only 36.45% was expected for the entire matchday, which translates as “the pairings are rather even overall”. For over many years, the average of the expected (and also achieved, thus verifying the expectations) average probability, synonymous with the expected and achieved determination, has been around 40% for the 1st league (for example, the 2nd Bundesliga is significantly below this, which thus supports the intuitive sentence about this league that says “anyone can beat anyone”).
So this matchday was balanced in terms of pairings. Of course, as already indicated, this is due to the fact that the two top favourites had to play away from home. This will be confirmed in the preview of the next matchday.
So here is the analysis of the matches:
Pairing 1 X 2
Leverkusen Dortmund 40.78
Bremen Hoffenheim 42.52
Nuremberg Gladbach 26.49
Stuttgart Mainz 43.85%
Wolfsburg FC Bayern 24.93%
St. Pauli Freiburg 25.99%
Schalke 04 HSV 23.55%
Frankfurt Hanover 27.63%
Kaiserslautern FC Cologne 23.86%
2 3 4
Determined as the sum of the events that occurred
2.796
ø determination occurred 31.07%
As can be seen, the favourite events only occurred very rarely, namely in a total of 3 out of 9 cases. This is such a small number that the determination is still below the magic number of 33.33%, which would be achieved if one had no idea at all and would bet all game outcomes on the “coin toss chance” of, in this case, 1/3. The completely clueless person would therefore already have done better than the computer for this match day, because, as one can also put it, the determined determination in the individual pairings was meaningless. One predicted a favourite event, which would have to occur more often in a certain proportion, but one did not hit this. At least the results in practice did not provide any evidence for the correctness of the determination, which, however, must be considered almost commonplace with only nine pairings. In the long run, the computer figures have been very well confirmed and one can now read off from these records here week by week to what extent things are gradually falling into place.
It should just be mentioned here that the figures for this season are not quite as shocking as one might fear on the basis of the season of surprises. The numbers look like this, based on the 162 games played so far:
Expected Average Probability:
39.16%
Average probability arrived at:
37.56%
(alternatively, the synonymous expressions “expected determination” and “achieved determination”).
Although the figures are not completely congruent, it shows that it was “worthwhile” to commit to favourites in the first place. It is also self-evident that this figure deviates far more than in previous seasons. Nevertheless, it is still somewhere “within the bounds” and one can even expect a favourable development in the future, as the figures at the beginning of the season were much less favourable.
Furthermore, you can of course also see in the statistics that the home teams have “translated” the goal drought into the almost logical consequence of too few victories. The away teams are ahead, but on the other hand this is not necessarily typical of seasonal phases.
10) Preview of matchday 19
Finally we can turn our attention to the upcoming 19th matchday in the preview.
First of all, here are the goal expectations determined by the computer:
Goal expectation
Home AwayHSV Frankfurt 1.81 1.13
Dortmund Stuttgart 2.39 0.85
Hannover Schalke 04 1.44 1.34
Freiburg Nuremberg 1.81 0.97
FC Bayern Kaiserslautern 2.53 0.73
Mainz Wolfsburg 1.33 1.17
FC Cologne Bremen 1.40 1.44
Gladbach Leverkusen 1.34 2.24
Hoffenheim St. Pauli 2.11 0.87
16.16 10.75
Expected goal total Expected goal average
26.92 2.99As you can see, the computer expects a bit more goals this time, due to the constellations. “Normal” is insofar as the biggest favourites play at home and can therefore be expected to score high numbers of goals (while away they tend to score only normal numbers, as the pairings are just more balanced).
Bremen are razor-thin favourites in Cologne, as are Hannover in their home match against Schalke, which, conservatively thought, cannot be right, but a look at the recent past and the table then hardly allows anything else. The clear favourites Dortmund and Bayern need no further explanation.
So now, finally, a look at the resulting probabilities, together with the determined and expected determination:
The determination Pairing 1 X 2 erw ø W-keit
HSV Frankfurt 53.04% 23.34% 23.62% 39.16%
Dortmund Stuttgart 71.37% 17.06% 11.57% 55.19%
Hanover Schalke 04 39.35% 25.74% 34.91% 34.30%
Freiburg Nuremberg 57.06% 23.11% 19.84% 41.83%
FC Bayern Kaiserslautern 76.28% 15.07% 8.64% 61.21%
Mainz Wolfsburg 40.13% 27.26% 32.60% 34.17%
FC Cologne Bremen 36.38% 25.52% 38.11% 34.27%
Gladbach Leverkusen 22.19% 20.11% 57.70% 42.26%
Hoffenheim St. Pauli 65.90% 19.77% 14.34% 49.39%
5.62 1.97 4.41 3.92
average expected fixing: 43.53% Well, as you can see the thesis is confirmed: When the clear favourites play at home, the expected commitment goes up. You have a couple of clear games, so to speak, which the former toss-up player would certainly have considered “benches”. One event clearly stands out, so you see a huge increase in the “expected average w-ness” column, which then affects the total and the average.
But only the future can clarify whether the games will turn out like this. In any case, one can be curious, even with a somewhat more scientific examination of the whole thing.
So what will the 19th matchday bring? How many surprises does it have in store for the fans? What will they be? And even if everything were to go “normally” for once, surely there would be nothing to complain about here, according to these considerations?
