A few theses about football
Part 1: The rules
1) The offside
Offside is one of the central rules of football. Abolishing it is not really an option, as all the tactics that have been developed and perfected over a good century would have to be thrown overboard. So it can only be about the problem of the correct application of the rule. The interpretation formulated in the rule of “giving the attacker the benefit of the doubt” would have to be implemented in order to help realise the basic demand for more goals – and more justice. Here, a technique of proof is used to substantiate the statement that in reality, even without any doubt, the decision is always taken against the attacker – in principle, always.
2) The penalty kick
Just like offside, this is one of the central decisions in football. Here, two proof techniques are used to support the same statement that those decisions also go against the attackers. Sense and purpose here too: Application of the current rules is sufficient. However, a few ideas are also presented that deal with other forms of penalties.
3) What is a penalty?
The idea is that a punishment is only really a punishment if it prevents the repetition of an offence by making the consequences for the offender less pleasant than the consequences if the offence were not committed. In itself a matter of course, but not realised in the same way on the football pitch. It is the case that in very many situations the offence is “worth it”.
4) Fair Play
The assertion is that fair play should be much more than just an empty phrase, since fair behaviour is basically well received. In general, more fair play – with sufficient media support – would do the sport good. The neutral spectator, whose presence is in principle sought – in front of the TV or in the stadium – could be attracted again in this way.
5) Free kicks
Free kicks are rarely taken correctly (the distance from the wall near the goal) and are even more rarely a reward for the attacking team. Why? A few suggestions are made on how to improve this.
6) The backpass rule
A very interesting rule. The rule makes sense. But: how (and when) is it applied?
7) Forward foul
Basically, the disadvantage that strikers are permanently in is put up for discussion here. Whenever there is a normal duel in which two players use the same means, against the attacker is interpreted as a striker’s foul.
8) Goalkeeper protection
A rule that has led to far excessive protection for the goalkeeper. It also stands in the way of the drive for more goals.
9) The advantage rule
It is not applied. So simple. If one wanted to, one could. Consequence? More goal chances, more goals.
10) Time play
This is used in many ways and is usually not only obvious but beyond unpleasant. It would be easy to abolish it. It is also shown that the display of the recommended injury time worked against the tension.
11) The three-point rule
First, a statistic proving the rule change to be ineffective. Some justice considerations as well as an idea for improvement is presented.
Part 2: Reporting
12) Preliminary considerations
German reporting is bad. This is addressed very blatantly, of course with a good justification of why it is done- The effect that could be achieved with better coverage — e.g. increase in ratings if it is not perceived to be exciting enough, but objective enough. –, are clear in themselves.
13) The survey results
Here, privately conducted but unrepresentative polls have produced a very clear result: Here the assertion is almost exclusively supported. Actually, it means that nobody listens any more, because they simply cannot bear it.
14) The true prophets
This is an example of how annoying it can be. A reporter waits until the score is 2-0, as close to the end of the game as possible, to then predict the winner. Not only does everyone know or already feel this way anyway, if effects could be achieved, then only those: The viewer switches off because “nothing more can happen” and, much worse, in the event that something does change, one has basically missed the drama. Even otherwise, people like to wait until the score is 1:1 (just as an example) in order to then try to sell the viewer a “it was announced”. Of course, the man never said that beforehand. Oh, so he didn’t want to spoil the suspense?
15) Being clever is everything
Exactly, it’s no longer about capturing a great game with all the suspense, but about being recognised as being as clever as possible. Emotionality has completely fallen by the wayside in this country. What is not recognised is the effect that the viewer does not watch anyway, but only when something exciting is put in front of him.
A multitude of phrases are put under the microscope, most of which, after a closer look and the piercing of the sharp needle of true football expertise, leave nothing more than a heap of bad grammar.
17) Spoiled suspense
The tension is thoroughly taken out. After 20 minutes at the latest, you learn in virtually every game that it’s not a good one. And even otherwise, you’re never supposed to be excited about how a certain scene will turn out. Because a) the speaker isn’t either and b) as soon as a goal is scored, the error analysis begins. That’s no way to build suspense for the viewer.
18) The tone of voice
The tone of voice is monotonous and boring. The comparison suggests itself that if you didn’t understand the language and couldn’t see the pictures, you wouldn’t be able to tell directly whether Queen Mum was visiting Berlin or the Champions League final was taking place.
19) The interviews
Who is actually the expert? In interviews conducted in this country, it becomes clear quite quickly that the person asking the questions feels in this position. After all, first of all, he knows the result, and secondly, he has the power to pull the interviewee through the mud afterwards.
20) The post-commentary
Basically, it is unbearable that a viewer should be put through a post-commentary game. Not only does the announcer know what’s coming in each scene, but he also knows the outcome of the game and can base his judgement on it. However, as bad as live coverage is, such scenes could not be played with original commentary.
21) The foreign comparison
A very important point to support the theses: It would be enough to listen to a match with English commentary only – i.e. understanding is not necessary – and you would notice that you are simply forced to watch. But there are also a lot of other points that can be made abroad – primarily England, but one example is enough to show that and how things could be better.
22) Ideas for improvement
a. Two reporters
An England habit, here the exception. It is necessary for the speaker to exchange information with a person next to him in critical situations. There are very numerous scenes in this country where a speaker confirms himself in his judgement when the scene is viewed again, but the viewer would have a different judgement.
These are also simply badly done. Numerous viewers do not watch a match, but rather listen to it. As soon as they hear about a goal, they look. In the 12 slow-motion replays that follow, you can’t really see how good the action was. You would only be able to see that in original speed. It’s especially noticeable on the Sky conference call. In England they always replay the scene normally. How high is a plate edge?
c. No post-commentary
Almost every scene you see on English TV in a recap is with the original commentary. This maintains the tension already expressed in the game. Provided it would be live suspense here, this could be addressed.
d. Preview and review
This could also be improved considerably, for example England. But it already leads on to the third part, as the chance assessments would have to be made sensible, related to matches and to relevant decisions in a tournament.
e. Introduce football and betting
Takes up point d. If betting were legalised, the spectator could be prepared with reasonable odds assessments – and could also make post-match observations.
Part 3: Football and betting
23) Preliminary considerations
Especially the German, who tends to focus on security, does not like “risky” considerations at all. However, betting is more widespread in Germany than elsewhere: every insurance policy is a bet. And usually they are the worst bets, but they are made with conviction and would be supported by argument. A football bet is a much fairer way and offers “cheap” entertainment, if you can’t win…
24) Thinking in probabilities
This thinking also seems alien to people. Here an attempt is made to bring it closer. In itself, there is no certainty about future events. This is what we are trying to make understandable.
25) The predictability of football
Here the question is not so much whether it is predictable or not, but to what extent it is predictable. It boils down to the fact that one can only state probabilities, but on the other hand these can be verified. The method developed for this can be well represented both verbally and mathematically.
26) The football programme
Here the relevant parameters are derived and explained. The calculation of these parameters can also be shown. This is done in quite simple formulas. These were implemented in a computer programme. The maintenance of the data and the parameters takes just as much effort, but is also explained. Finally, the principle of simulation is explained in this context, which provides very good results in terms of probabilities on long-term events (example: Who will become German champion?).
27) How do odds come about?
Here, the relationship between probability of occurrence and payout odds is explained in principle. It is immediately obvious: the smaller the chance, the higher the odds. But there is more…
28) What is a “good bet”?
A good bet or advantage bet is one where the payout ratio is in favourable proportion to the probability of occurrence. This is the case when the reciprocal of the probability is smaller than the odds offered.
29) The Betting Market: Past – Present
a. The betting offers
What can one bet on? What is relevant on the market? Where can one make which turnovers?
b. The traditional bookmaker
The dwindling importance compared to the past is presented, but also the way of working.
c. Asian bookmakers / Asian handicap
The tsunami wave from Asia has caused a huge increase in potential turnover, but also unpleasant manipulations. In any case, there was a revolutionary idea from Asia, which is presented here.
d. Betting exchanges
Here, customer bets against customer, the provider is only an intermediary. The offer and settlement is fair and correct.
e. Live Betting
Today, gigantic turnovers are made during the games, i.e. live. How does this work?
f. Spread betting
A great idea from England. Popular there for decades. This one is just presented. Possibly it would be a great alternative for the state.
30) Integrating betting into everyday football life
Once the fairness of the betting market is understood, it could be used as a basis for many assessments. New television concepts would emerge that could create a boom.
Part 4: The History of the German National Football Team
31) The 2010 World Cup in South Africa
A look back at this most recent tournament. The great performances of the Germans are highlighted, of course, but a few other remarks are made in relation to the observed developments in football mentioned above. The reaction abroad serves more as evidence for the claim made afterwards.
32) Germany at major tournaments – a review of a special kind
For this review here highlights the immense good fortune of the Germans, which has accompanied them for decades. Abroad, this was recognised but not dared to be properly addressed.