Today’s text will deal with the following points: A review of the results, briefly discussing how they came about and the deservedness of the same (this for the sheer pleasure of it and the enjoyment of football in general). This will be followed by a brief analysis of the table, to what extent the picture has been corrected or the surprises have endured. Afterwards, of course, the computer simulation is to be carried out and its results compared with those of the last week in development.

This will of course be followed by the corresponding comparison of the betting market with the currently traded prices on the betting exchange betfair. These figures will be compared with the computer, the differences sought and possible interpretations sought.

In the last part, we will compare the figures from last week with the expected and achieved points. The measure of the size of the surprises is determined again and compared with the previous week. So, has there been a measurable correction or has the slight “headiness” of the table increased?

However, this statistic is expanded by two points this week: The first relates to the deviations from the expected number of goals, which are determined in addition to the number of points, since the computer makes its predictions on the basis of goal expectations (these deviations therefore include the height of the results, which is not the case with the number of points). So here, too, the heights of the deviations are shown in a table.

The other supplementary point is a comparison with other countries. To what extent are the tables there “unordered” or “ordered”, which can be compared with the same measure as the German one. Ultimately, it is about the measurability of the surprises.

Here is a brief overview of the topics:

Part 1: A review of the matchday 12 results.

Part 2: A look at the table situation

Part 3: The computer simulation to determine the probabilities for the question “Who will be German Champion 2011?”

Part 4: The betting exchange betfair’s figures in comparison with the computer figures

Part 5: The point and goal deviations of the teams of the 1st Bundesliga compared to the previous week

Part 6: The goal deviations of all teams according to 5

Part 7: The deviations of some foreign leagues in comparison

And now into the details:

1) Review of the results of matchday 12.

First of all, here is an overview of the results:

Borussia Dortmund – Hamburger SV 2:0 (0:0)
Werder Bremen – Eintracht Frankfurt 0:0
VfL Wolfsburg – FC Schalke 04 2:2 (2:1)

1. FC Kaiserslautern – VfB Stuttgart 3:3 (0:2)
2. FC Cologne – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:4 (0:0)
FC St. Pauli – Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 (0:0)
FSV Mainz 05 – Hannover 96 0:1 (0:1)
TSG Hoffenheim – SC Freiburg 0:1 (0:0)
FC Bayern Munich – 1. FC Nürnberg 3:0 (1:0)

The individual games in the review:

Borussia Dortmund – Hamburger SV 2:0 (0:0)

Borussia Dortmund certainly didn’t put in the outstanding performance in this match that they had in many previous games. But the fact that they still managed to come away with three points almost as a matter of course is certainly a class feature. There was no sense of unease in the crowd either as the first half passed with a very even score and no particular scoring chances. The first good chance after the break was superbly converted and the opponent hardly got a chance to come back. With the 2:0 in the 70th, the victory was almost secured. HSV didn’t really come into their own anymore, although the verdict remains that they were equal for long stretches. It would be going a bit too far to try to construe this as a slackening of Dortmund’s performance. Nevertheless, they should prove in the next games that they are still capable of the great, irresistible and carefree combination football to back up the computer assessment of a high chance of winning the championship.

Werder Bremen – Eintracht Frankfurt 0:0

Werder with the urgent correction of the last slump with the 0:6 at Stuttgart on redemption tour. In terms of play, they succeeded convincingly against Eintracht, who were on a high and only narrowly escaped defeat, as player interviews after the game also confirmed. A very good game from Werder, which really only deserved one winner. The satisfaction about the good performance was palpable everywhere. Success will come. But one thing is certain here: In the course of the season, there will be more games like this, in which the originally assumed conditions will become noticeable on the pitch, if not in the result. The realisation of the advantages is then, of course, partly dependent on luck (or one’s own bad luck), but will tend to even out with a large number of attempts.

VfL Wolfsburg – FC Schalke 04 2:2 (2:1)

Another brilliant performance by VfL Wolfsburg and you could really feel how everyone, including the spectators, wanted to talk themselves out of their fear of the big bad wolf (not their mascot), to sing it away, to ignore it. The first half was so clearly dominated and would have been sufficiently rewarded with the 2:0, but a 3:0 would not have been wrong. However, the fact that the second Schalke attack led directly to a goal conceded almost at the break brought back old concerns from the games against Mainz and Leverkusen.

Nevertheless, Wolfsburg also defiantly dominated the second half, but by no means as clearly as the first. The 3:1 was still possible in several situations, just as a winning goal was still possible on both sides after the conceded 2:2 and the subsequent sending-off of Dejagah, quite obviously out of frustration, so also for Wolfsburg, who were outnumbered from that point on, which speaks very much in their favour.

A very unjust result and nothing more than bad luck, which caught up with a great Wolfsburg team now for the third time this season in very similar and insofar inconceivable form. A class team that should nevertheless go their way up. Schalke hardly play a role in this assessment, who of course would now have to win a few home games in a row to stabilise. Of course, the class is also present and recognisable in the team. But so are the problems.

1. FC Kaiserslautern – VfB Stuttgart 3:3 (0:2)

Another unbelievable game, in which one simply watches open-mouthed as a spectator. Kaiserslautern were as strong throughout the game as they had been in the games before, but again seemed to get no reward for their commitment. Stuttgart, of course, also have a high league format and in the last home game against Werder not only showed this grandly with the 6 goals scored (remember the 7 against Gladbach), but at the same time they also gained a lot of self-confidence. The balls are simply going in at the moment.

A key scene, of course, was the penalty not given to Lautern, which resulted in the 2:0 for Stuttgart via a counterattack. Perhaps the game could have taken a completely different direction. As little as it may belong here, if the place where the foul occurred had not been the edge of the penalty area but, for example, the halfway line, the whistle would not only have been blown as a matter of course but a warning would also have been given. The referee does not want to give a penalty. However, the announcer gave him a chance insofar as he spoke of a clear foul play, but it might also have taken place outside.

The fact that Lautern didn’t give up even after the 0:3 and, as you could see, celebrated the 1:3 euphorically with the fans basically also shows their Bundesliga format, but also the passion of the supporters, as well as Lautern’s quality, especially in this game, which was simply recognised. The great connecting goal to make it 2:3 with an incredible left-footed hammer into the top right corner of the goal from 20 metres was simply world class. For that, they really deserved the reward of the 3:3 — and even got it.

1. FC Cologne – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:4 (0:0)

In a derby like this, specific table situations and predispositions of the teams often fall by the wayside. In addition, there was the extremely heavy rain in this match, which made a regular game in itself impossible. That Gladbach emerged as such a clear winner was not foreseeable for a long time. However, the collapse of Cologne after the 0:1 makes one worry about their future. Gladbach played a bit like they did in Leverkusen and even in the last 1:4 against Werder, when they “only” missed their numerous chances, but this time they made use of them.

FC St. Pauli – Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 (0:0)

Even if the match report was quite clear and suggested a clear dominance of Leverkusen, the scenes seen did not show quite such a clear picture. At least in the second half, Pauli came close to scoring several times. Since the winning goal came about somewhat curiously and was not scored until the 81st minute, it was a somewhat fortunate victory for Leverkusen.

FSV Mainz 05 – Hannover 96 0:1 (0:1)

This game could also be watched in its entirety as a single match (without missing anything). The Mainz team’s alleged loss of ease is, of course, pure nonsense. They played just as well as in many other games before, but this time they did not get their just reward. They did, however, win quite happily in both Munich and Wolfsburg, so they couldn’t complain at all and wouldn’t want to. They just don’t want to hear any nonsensical questions or assessments. A wish, however, that remains unfulfilled on the part of the media.

Hanover put a lot of effort into this game and held their own excellently. Nevertheless, Mainz were the better team in the first half. They had the greater number of good chances, at least one of which, in their own opinion, could only be thwarted irregularly. They simply lacked what they had in abundance before: That little bit of luck. It’s always fun to watch them (though that’s really true of virtually all teams, at least this season). The spectators are enthusiastic and hard to disappoint. Here, the disappointment, if any, only followed this or that refereeing decision.

Hannover were then lucky to take the one good opportunity that presented itself with a great shot by Pinto from about 30 metres, which became a fluttering ball but had the unbelievable hardness of a measured 101 km/h. The shot was great, but the goal was not the only one. The shot was great, the goalkeeper was on it, but with the hardness and the trajectory of the ball it is actually impossible to speak of a mistake. Rather, one should enjoy such shots and scenes (or attribute them to Jabolani).

After the sending-off against Hanover, Mainz’s onslaught naturally gradually became a little more impatient. At least one huge chance was also missed when they actually already had the goal cry on their lips, so that it gradually became a certainty: Luck is not with them today either (as it was in the weeks before, but still at the beginning of the season).

A great game, also from Hannover. Practically every game in the Bundesliga is hard-fought, given the density of performance. Sometimes it’s the referee’s whistle that decides, sometimes it’s a hole in the pitch or a direct hit like the one in this game. Instead of indulging in such lengthy, rather ridiculous analyses of the progress of Mainz’s season, one should rather accept this and look forward to further football festivals that are guaranteed to be seen – even more so if one refrains from analyses, because that can actually lead to paralysis of the legs.

TSG Hoffenheim – SC Freiburg 0:1 (0:0)

This Sunday match was also a one-off and to that extent fully watchable. Hoffenheim was clearly the better team in the first half. The only thing missing was the reward that the lead would have meant and which was far more than once in the air (lower crossbar from the outstanding Vukcevic). After the break, Freiburg stabilised somewhat and were almost equal. The winning goal in the very last second was, like the one in Frankfurt, a lucky goal, if only because of the timing. However, to score with 5 seconds left on the clock, to get the ball like Reisinger did to Cissé after a rebound, that was just that little bit of chance you need — but then followed by skill. Cissé’s finish, on the other hand, was exceptional and underlined his lead in the scoring charts, which was by no means accidental. Nevertheless happy for Freiburg and tragic from Hoffenheim’s point of view.

FC Bayern Munich – 1. FC Nürnberg 3:0 (1:0)

Of course, it was to be expected that Bayern would not want to let anything slip in this match under any circumstances. They scored the quite early 1:0 after a great preparation by Pranjic. However, the course of the game was much more balanced than the final result suggests. Nuremberg came close to equalising on several occasions and only failed to do so by a very narrow margin. There is no doubt that Bayern deserved to win.

2) A look at the standings

Here is the current table after the 12th matchday:

7 points ahead is quite a lot. The computer will certainly express this well in its simulation. Especially since the most serious chaser, FC Bayern of course still, is already 12 points back. Leverkusen also have great potential and have at least fulfilled the requirement that two points per game make a championship contender. The German league will not lose its excitement due to the high lead, especially since the leader is not the number one title candidate.

All the teams that follow have, of course, more or less earned their position. Even if one may make the qualification with Freiburg that they scored the winning goal in the last second against both Frankfurt and Hoffenheim in games in which they were by no means in a superior role, and even in the game against Kaiserslautern they were by no means the better team, but still won.

The negative surprises remain in the table this week, but they all scored. Since the Wolfsburg vs Schalke match involved two teams it was only about a draw there, which of course has no direct positive effect for either. Werder also scored only one point from superior play, so that (of those four negative surprises mentioned last week Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, Schalke, Werder) all had to settle for only one point. Bayern, as the fifth in the group of the disappointed, won. But all of them scored, as you can see, and also showed consistently appealing performances. The midfield remains tight, so that even in the long second half of the season there are still quite a few jumps and shifts to be expected, which will then certainly promise the established teams something, at least visually. Whether it will be enough for all of them to achieve their goals is more than unclear. The gaps in points are already too large, at least for the Champions League.

3) The computer simulation to determine the probabilities of the question “Who will be German Champion 2011?

Here are the figures from 5000 runs of the computer simulation:

The distribution of chances by computer simulation after the 12th matchday
(5000 runs)

These are the current figures. The very improbable events naturally occur more often (in absolute terms) in 5000 simulations, but the reliability does not necessarily increase because teams can now celebrate championship titles that would not have made it at all in 1000 runs. Up to Frankfurt, i.e. the absolute number of 14 times, it may still be possible to make a serious assessment, but for all other teams it is purely a matter of luck. There is no measurable or assignable probability. “It can happen”. Yes, it cannot be ruled out that Schalke will still be champions. Or rather: not to be ruled out. But how likely is it? Answer: yes, very unlikely.

After all, Bayern’s 3-0 win makes them the toughest chasers again in terms of probabilities and computer logic. But for sure it still coincides with intuition, which also refers to Leverkusen’s chances or at least their ranking in the league table. Intuitively, then, one would say (and accept hearing it): “Dortmund, Bayern or Leverkusen do it.”

The rest of the field has just very small chances, (in total 4.32 %) which already fall back into the percentage range. One would perhaps put this like this: “Everything has to fit.” Starting with a series of one’s own, of course.

Here is this ranking, this time sorted by gain to loss of chances, so first in this ranking is the team that has gained the most in absolute percentage, last who has lost the most. First, however, let’s look at the distribution of chances for the last week:

So the big winner of the matchday is once again Borussia Dortmund. This is quite easy to explain: They won and the direct pursuer lost. In addition, they have defeated a potential rival, which certainly has an additional positive effect. But the gain is almost based a little more on the fact that they “didn’t have an easy task”. So HSV was both a competitor and a stumbling block. As you can see, their percentage gain did not affect the defeated Mainz, who had previously been in second place, but was spread across all teams. This is only too logical, since Mainz did not have so many percentages to give away. Wolfsburg’s “slump” was indeed massive (Nuremberg should not be counted, as their chances were small and this could therefore be a kind of “measurement inaccuracy”; logically, however, their small chances could perhaps have been nourished mainly by a surprise in Munich, which failed to materialise). Wolfsburg had a home game, a difficult opponent, but about whom one would have to say “if we still want something, we have to beat them”. It is also logical that negative results have a more serious impact on higher-ranked teams that still have a chance than on lower-ranked teams. The latter, in that sense, “don’t have much to lose.”

4) The betting exchange betfair’s figures compared to the computer figures.

Well, it is to be expected that the Dortmund victory also had an effect on the betting exchange, especially since a drop in the Dortmund odds could already be observed in the course of the week (probably a consequence of the previous text?).

Note: The prices in the last column were inserted first, the other columns were calculated backwards from them. Since the numbers of the “back” side were inserted here – i.e. those on which one can bet – the percentage value achieved in the total is over 100. If one were to insert the “lay” column – i.e. the prices to be paid – the total would be under 100%.

Here now, repeated, are the figures from last week:
The prices traded on the betfair betting exchange after the 11th matchday.

Now accordingly the table sorted by percent gain/loss in comparison of this week to the previous week from the point of view of the betting exchange:
The change in odds from matchday 11 to matchday 12 sorted by percentage change compared to the previous week from the betting market’s point of view.

A somewhat different picture from that of the computer. However, from the computer’s point of view, it is a very positive one. Because: The gain on Dortmund is even greater than from his own point of view, which is, so to speak, a confirmation of his assessment. If you like, then the betting market “sees” that Dortmund’s chances are greater than initially assumed. This is also shown by the fact that Bayern slipped down the table despite winning.

The slide of HSV was dramatic, but very understandable. Who would like to have this share after they have not used “their last chance”, so to speak, namely to stop the leader who is thereby slipping away?

Note: a phenomenon comparable to the computer simulation in the case of small chances can also be seen on the betting market, by the way. Although the very high prices are offered, they are all very small amounts, so that one can hardly speak of trading. The expression used by experts in this context is then: “There is no market there”. There is no trading, so the figures are just as unrepresentative as those of the computer simulation. Consequently, a reasonable assessment is lacking on all sides as far as the very small chances are concerned. It is certainly understandable. You think “well, that won’t happen anyway”. So also “Nuremberg will never be champions. But when it comes to the question of whether the odds might not be 1/200, 1/1000 or perhaps only 1/10000, one capitulates emotionally.

5) The point and goal deviations of the teams in the 1st Bundesliga compared to the previous week.

First of all, here are the statistics:
The point expectations and scored points as well as the deviations after the 12th matchday of the 2010/2011 season.

The current deviations show a further extension of Borussia Dortmund’s top position. Logical, because they won, while second-placed Mainz lost their game. Freiburg and Hannover, on the other hand, have moved up. Leaps and bounds – since one can deviate from the expectation by a maximum of three points in a match, and this is only the case in theory – are not to be expected in this table.

Bayern Munich can only improve slowly, above all, of course, by winning games. Slowly for them because they usually go into the game as favourites and therefore cannot exceed their expectation that much (so their win against Nuremberg was so “predictable” that they could only improve their negative deviation from -5.74 to -4.99).

Interesting still that the overall deviation has decreased from 6.74 to 5.78 points. Well, the explanation for the deviation in the first place was that too few draws have occurred so far. This has corrected itself a little, because the three from the weekend were more than expected. This affects the overall deviation in the sense that it becomes smaller.

So the column of deviation absolute, which is new this week, shows the amount of deviation for each team. The point of this is to make the surprises measurable. Logically, the further the teams miss their expectations, the more the results must have surprised you. Here is the interpretation of the figure: compared to last week, the deviation has increased (although not calculated here: last week the average deviation was 4.87 points) by 0.15 points on average to now 5.02 points. This means that especially on matchday 12 the surprises prevailed again.

Yes, if you think about it carefully, the home defeats of Mainz and Hoffenheim were two surprises, the home defeat of Cologne also counts as a surprise, and the three draws are certainly not favourite results (it means that the most probable of the three match outcomes did not occur). In the end, only the wins by Dortmund and Bayern are really “normal”, and still the away win by Leverkusen the favourite result. So according to this, the Bundesliga is fun, that much is pretty much assured from it. Whether they are actually quality features when it’s “down and out”, so to speak, is another matter altogether. This must be shown separately on the European stage.

If you have any doubts that this season has more surprises in store, here is the same table from the previous season for comparison:

The points expected and scored as well as the deviations after matchday 12 of the 2009/2010 season.

At first, one might be troubled to remember that Mainz actually made the very positive headlines in pre-season as well (including a win against Bayern on matchday 3). Then there was Leverkusen’s impressive start to the season, but they had probably just slackened off at that stage. The catastrophic first half of the season of Hertha in Berlin is also striking and certainly still in the memory. Stuttgart also had a hard time at the beginning of last season, as you will soon remember, and only got on track after the dismissal of Babbel.

All in all, you can see that there were a bit too many draws in the starting phase last season, which results in a negative number in the sum of the non-(absolute) deviations.

The absolute total is also much lower and means that, despite the surprises that were of course also observed a year ago, things were still relatively “normal” with an average deviation per team of 3.21 points. The 2010/2011 season is particularly crazy, that would be proven.

6) The goal deviations

Yes, a new statistic for this week, which refers even more specifically to the deviations of expected goals from goals scored. Of course, in football it is almost only the points scored that count in the end, but the goal difference has both a small significance (it is said that championships have even been decided on the basis of goal difference) and often reflects true performance a little better. If, for example, a team loses several games by very narrow margins and wins other games by a wide margin, one can possibly assume that their potential is higher and that they may be able to advance to higher regions in the future.

Here is the table already sorted according to the sum of the deviations. However, one should bear in mind that the sum is formed from the goals scored minus the expected goals plus, conversely, the expected goals conceded minus the conceded goals (this quickly becomes clear: in any case, it is positive if a team has conceded fewer goals than expected and has scored more than expected).

Goal expectations and goals scored after matchday 12

Surely Borussia Dortmund is also leading in this ranking. But you can already see a shift in second place: Frankfurt Eintracht have of course exceeded their expectations in other respects, but with a goal difference of 20:11 have exceeded their expectation of around 16:18 by the second clearest margin.

Mainz remain in the mix but, as one naturally remembers, have won many games very narrowly, while Frankfurt’s 4:0 at Gladbach certainly spontaneously springs to mind. You can see that Gladbach’s own result at the back is also correcting itself a little, and here too the reasons come to mind: The 6:3 in Leverkusen and most recently the 4:0 in Cologne have done them good despite the endless goals conceded.

Werder Bremen also have a terrible goal difference on top of their few points. However, you can see that it is almost only due to the goals conceded, as they are almost still in the green with 19 instead of just under 21 scored. Schalke is solidly off in both categories. Too few scored, too many conceded. Well balanced.

Otherwise, you may enjoy this table a little, but don’t be surprised by the small overall deviation (of 0.00 goals). This is where (uninfluenced) computer logic comes into play, which, however, ultimately coincides with intuitive logic: all goals that were expected to be scored for one team were expected to be conceded for another team. If a deviation from this occurred, it occurred for both teams, once positive, once negative.

Note VfB Stuttgart, who are in the solid midfield in this table, with almost no (negative) deviation. Of course, you know pretty quickly: their goal ratio is good, thanks to a 7:0 and a 6:0. But don’t such results also speak for class?

What is still striking is the deviation of the total expected goals and the goals scored. There were 339 goals scored, but the computer expected only about 315. Certainly a pleasing tendency. The computer will also adapt, this is done automatically. However, we can still assume (fear?) that this average will drop a little: in the darker days of winter, we can expect a little more “results football” due to the situation in the standings and the weather. Or would you rather not?!

The 24 goals scored too many actually sound a bit less than the many spectacular games and results suggest, don’t they?

A quick note: The average goal difference per team is 5.87 goals, as can be seen by adding up the absolute differences and dividing by 18.

7) The deviations of some foreign leagues

Just for comparison, here are the point deviations from England, Italy and Spain as of today (16 November 2010).

(England already has 13 matchdays, Italy also 12 and Spain only 11).

Here is the table from England:

England, Premier League, after matchday 13 of the 2010/2011 season.
Expected points and deviations, sorted by deviations

The first thing that stands out here is that there are a few “nonames” at the top, while there are a few traditional clubs at the back. However, you can see immediately that the deviations are extremely moderate. Chelsea just lost 3-0 at home to Sunderland (after 39-0 home goals in a row!), so that the difference of 3 points can almost be explained, as well as Sunderland’s flight of fancy (however, Sunderland’s performance at Chelsea, which the author watched live on Sky, was really fantastic). Liverpool FC, on the other hand, had recently recovered (and also defeated Chelsea), but lost ground again just last weekend with a 2-0 defeat at Stoke. Everton, the second club from Liverpool, is also struggling this year despite an excellent squad.

What is already indicated in the moderate deviations becomes obvious when looking at the average value for the deviations: only 2.86 points per team. Even less than in Germany in the previous season. Business as usual, so to speak.

You can still see from the negative sum of the non-absolute deviation that there have been a bit too many draws in this league so far this season.

Italy, Serie A, after matchday 12 of the 2010/2011 season
Expected points and deviations, sorted by deviations

Inter behind expectations (Mourinho’s departure?), Lazio on top, Milan also quite strong. AS Roma is fighting its way back, as it did last year. The very slight average deviation is striking. “Come sempre? Slightly too many draws in Italy, too. And the “service by the book”, especially in Italy, does not create an excessive amount of excitement. Surely that’s partly where the envy of the Bundesliga comes from?

Spain, Primera Division, after the 11th matchday of the 2010/2011 season
Expected points and deviations, sorted by deviations

As you can see, everyone in Spain is playing more or less normally too. Real Madrid and Barcelona despite clear superiority in the current real table in this sorting here only in the upper midfield: Clearly, thanks to their great superiority, victories are the normal result for these teams. The average difference of 2.41 points is exemplary, but it also makes the league a little uninteresting. The question is almost always the same: Real Madrid or FC Barcelona? Even the draws “fit”, as you can see.

Conclusion: The Bundesliga is simply fun. We can look forward to the results of the next weekend. Will Dortmund be able to pull even further away? Will Bayern be able to pull away or even sribery? Will the Schalke team get back on track? Can Leverkusen hold its own in the Champions League? Are the levellings getting smaller or are we going to see more big surprises? What will happen next for the German teams in Europe? This question, of course, is asked in parallel. It’s best if the perceived balance of the league has a positive effect on the international performances.

By the way, it might be interesting to have a statistic soon: With what frequency does a goal scored change the trend?

Only goals in which a lead is equalised or a leading goal is scored count. This would be another measure of the perceived tension. Especially if you then put it in relation to the foreign country. However, it is to be feared, that very statistic is actually useful for revealing a flaw: How do you keep a result? And it is precisely this that does not work so well in Germany. To the delight of the fans….