Also for this week, neither the statistics nor the probability assessments for the individual categories nor the classifications of these values nor an own assessment of the same shall be omitted, but another point shall be put into focus a little, which has not been explicitly addressed so far. This is the coverage provided by the pay-TV channel Sky Deutschland — which has exclusive live broadcasting rights — which is considered to be decidedly inferior and is thus identified as the main cause of the in-house catastrophe in the form of its conspicuous bankruptcy, but which itself is nonsensically searching for causes in all sorts of other corners and ends.
As usual, the 19th round itself produced a sufficient number of surprising results and, analogous to most of its predecessors, was very entertaining and offered enterprising football at all venues, even if one has to state that the goal frequency is pointing a little downwards.
1) Review of the matches
First, then, the results at a glance.
Results of the 19th matchday
Hamburger SV – Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0 (0:0)
Borussia Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart 1:1 (1:0)
Hannover 96 – FC Schalke 04 0:1 (0:1)
SC Freiburg – 1. FC Nuremberg 1:1 (1:0)
FC Bayern Munich – 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5:1 (1:0)
FSV Mainz 05 – VfL Wolfsburg 0:1 (0:0)
- FC Cologne – Werder Bremen 3:0 (2:0)
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Bayer Leverkusen 1:3 (0:2)
TSG Hoffenheim – FC St. Pauli 2:2 (1:0)
General assessment:
First of all, it should be noted that almost all the matches could be followed this weekend, on Saturday in the conference and afterwards in the summary, which then gives sufficient clues to the complete course of the game, especially as one’s own attention is far more focused on the individual match scenes and the atmosphere in the stadium than on the usually completely useless, as exclusively result-oriented, joker at the microphone. By the way, players’ voices (still subordinate) as well as coaches’ voices continue to be recorded with great pleasure, which, despite their proven partiality (insofar as they are not neutral for the media representatives, are gladly overheard or even judged), are far better than the reporters themselves, who are obliged to be objective (and incapable of it) and knowledgeable (tending towards zero, at least the one they listen to), and who seem to know almost nothing except how to add up goals and put them into the right equation (two is greater than one, that seems to be well known). Tenor: “The victory was deserved, because goals count.” An enlightening piece of wisdom.
Otherwise, one could possibly say that a little more results football is being played. But any generalisation does injustice to an individual match, and even more to individual scenes, so these should be omitted as far as possible, also in order to create a contrast to the media landscape, which seems to expect something from recognising patterns as quickly as possible, but sees this as counterproductive in terms of building up suspense (what could the spectator expect to feel more than suspense?).
The matches in detail:
Hamburger SV – Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0 (0:0)
To which game should the term “work victory” fit better than to this one? With a total of only 5:2 chances to score (according to kicker), due to Eintracht’s defensive problems mostly in reverse, you can see that it was deserved, but could have easily stayed at 0:0 (if someone didn’t slip in on the other side). It wasn’t very exciting, so it was one of those “we play for results” games, which both did for different reasons. Of course, HSV wanted to confirm the away win at Schalke and possibly attack further ahead – in this sense, such victories are a kind of duty –, Eintracht, due to the personnel problems and the recent 0:3 home defeat against Hannover, wanted to find their way back into the second half of the season and keep as close as possible at the back.
Borussia Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart 1:1 (1:0)
This, on the other hand, was a great game of football, despite the lack of goals and the unfairness of the outcome. Sure, it’s easy for Borussia Dortmund to just go for it and play ahead, since they have little to fear from the standings and coach Klopp has successfully talked them out of the threatening “soft knees” (analogous to the soft arm of a tennis player with match point). “Carry on as before and never forget: the next opponent is always the hardest.”
This is how football is fun and even if Stuttgart only played a supporting role for a long time, the neutral spectator still enjoys great football, even if it is only recognised as one-sided. The fact that the long overdue 2:0 just didn’t happen after five clear-cut and perfectly created goal chances was nothing more than bad luck. When the defence was really “stretched”, as the English would say, the VfB combined perfectly with the final heel pass to Prograbnyak who actually sank the ball. The shock will be limited, but still a disappointment, in itself, even for objective fans of the game of football. This was simply not deserved. Whether it is still “good for the league”, later statistics will possibly be able to show.
Hannover 96 – FC Schalke 04 0:1 (0:1)
Even if this result looks somehow “normal”, since Schalke is seen as the better team, who are still expected to be further ahead despite the temporary setback in the game before, it was not really deserved. Certainly, in such a judgement one should always take into account that the leading team is not forced to play further forward and that as soon as the equaliser fell – even if deserved – there would still be time to struggle forward again oneself. Nevertheless, it is certain that Schalke never wanted to allow as many top-class goals as Schalke did. Hannover simply looked good. They play forward full of confidence, have at least this one exceptional player – Ya Konan – in their ranks who always provides a goal threat, and have nothing to lose, plus the crowd on their side.
On the other hand, such a setback can ensure that, as the saying goes, “the trees don’t grow to the sky”. Second place was a bit too much of a good thing, it could still go down a few places. Credit nevertheless for the performance and the attitude that coach Slomka seems to have conveyed.
SC Freiburg – 1. FC Nürnberg 1:1 (1:0)
Not such a great game, but that was partly due to the fact that Freiburg was running on fumes. They forced the lead, but subsequently tried to defend it exclusively and fell more and more behind on the pitch. The equaliser was deserved, if Nuremberg had not even earned a little more. Nevertheless, also here: rather result football and no pure fun football (this only to give later to the total goal sum and season phase en judgement).
FC Bayern Munich – 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5:1 (1:0)
Of course it sounds extremely clear, but you could say that Bayern had a hard time until the 1:0 shortly before the break, but then they underpinned this with the 2:0 directly after the changeover, only to really start to swim after the connecting goal – at least in terms of the result. A good performance by the Lauter players, who acted tactically very skilfully. Of course, Bayern can always be blamed for the collapse in the 80th minute with three late goals, especially since they suddenly found a lot of space and used it perfectly.
In view of the fact that they were often unlucky enough – essentially in their finishing – such a result is of course even less fortuitous. Basically, as has been argued here several times, Bayern are not playing one bit worse than last season. A few results went against them unluckily and there is just that one overachiever.
FSV Mainz 05 – VfL Wolfsburg 0:1 (0:0)
It was already said about Mainz in the middle of the first half of the season, when they were in first place for a short time, that they lost their ease. In this game, too, they never came so freely, even if the performance was anything but bad. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, of course have a lot to make up for and, despite the Dzeko transfer, still have outstanding potential in their ranks, which they used in this game mainly to keep theDefensive together. There wasn’t too much going forward, but just that one scene – a typical standard, which the very strong headed centre-back Kjaer bent into the net – and the revenge for the 3:4 after 3:0 from the first leg – the start of Mainz’s run – was successful. This game, too, by the higher-ranked team in terms of personnel, was geared towards results.
- FC Cologne – Werder Bremen 3:0 (2:0)
Surely one thought that Werder would now start some kind of catching up after the successful start to the second half of the season – at least on the betting market this was the case.
The Cologne team, however, had not been guilty of much lately and played fresh and fearless forward with a very agile and eye-catching Podolski, possibly finding the Bremen defence’s weaknesses. A very successful game from FCK and another bitter setback for SV Werder, also due to the amount.
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Bayer Leverkusen 1:3 (0:2)
Since (and already during) the winter break, Gladbach had also focused on the defence. The improvements were, of course, noticeable, and even the forwards were starting to show signs of improvement here and there. After a good opening quarter of an hour, Leverkusen rather struggled to keep the game even – despite having more possession.
Then one forward move was successful and it happened. It got really bad with the 0:2, as Gladbach continued to be equal.
After the break, the home side still hadn’t given up and struggled to get back on level terms, which they did with centre-back Stranzl’s incredible strike (a hammer from the right corner of the penalty area that hit just inside the far post, comparable to some of the six first-leg goals).
Leverkusen had some trouble defensively and Gladbach almost managed to score the 2:2. when the ball bounced around like a pinball in the penalty area but was finally pushed out and forward by a Leverkusen leg, where Gladbach were suddenly outnumbered and managed to score the fantastically played out and finished (Castro with the lupfer) 3:1. Of course, one says afterwards “all in all deserved” but who only looks at this sequence sees how close luck and misfortune often are and suddenly the “incredible Gladbach morale” could have been praised.
TSG Hoffenheim – FC St. Pauli 2:2 (1:0)
Hoffenheim was the better team in the 1st half and took the first real scoring chance to make it 1:0. Surely now one could have expected that although Pauli would become more offensive, Hoffenheim would still follow up. The reality was quite different and St. Pauli just didn’t want to prove that the computer had them rightly in last place in the playing strength rankings. They played great forward and embarrassed Hoffenheim several times until they actually scored the two great goals to make it 1:2. This time Hoffenheim were once again lucky with a last-minute goal, so their personal record in this category now stands at 2:6.
2) The table situation
The table after the 19th matchday
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 19 15 2 2 47 43 – 12 +31
2 Bayer Leverkusen 19 10 6 3 36 39 – 29 +10
3 Hannover 96 19 11 1 7 34 28 – 28 +0
4 FC Bayern Munich 19 9 6 4 33 37 – 22 +15
5 FSV Mainz 05 19 11 0 8 33 30 – 21 +9
6 Hamburger SV 19 9 3 7 30 29 – 28 +1
7 SC Freiburg 19 9 3 7 30 28 – 28 +0
8 TSG Hoffenheim 19 6 8 5 26 35 – 26 +9
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 19 8 2 9 26 24 – 25 -1
10 FC Schalke 04 19 7 4 8 25 26 – 25 +1
11 VfL Wolfsburg 19 5 8 6 23 26 – 26 +0
12 1.FC Nürnberg 19 6 5 8 23 23 – 30 -7
13 1.FC Kaiserslautern 19 6 4 9 22 29 – 33 -4
14 Werder Bremen 19 6 4 9 22 25 – 39 -14
15 1.FC Köln 19 5 4 10 19 22 – 34 -12
16 FC St. Pauli 19 5 4 10 19 20 – 34 -14
17 VfB Stuttgart 19 4 4 11 16 34 – 36 -2
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 19 3 4 12 13 28 – 50 -22
526 526 0
Goals ø 3.08 Certainly, there is plenty of suspense as far as the battles for position are concerned. Nevertheless, the matchday itself did not intensify them, if you like. Bayern, HSV and Schalke have come closer to the top, so that although one can now expect a further correction, one may at the same time ask whether one is actually interested in it?
It probably boils down to Bayern and Leverkusen having to settle 2nd and 3rd place between themselves – leaving Dortmund out of it for once – and the rest battling it out for the Euro League, with HSV and Schalke now almost expected to turn their noses up at everyone else in the end. Wolfsburg, of course, have also climbed.
The question of whether VfB Stuttgart can get out of the bottom without any problems remains exciting, but has nevertheless been given plenty of fuel by the 1-1 draw at the clear No. 1 (and, as mentioned, they didn’t even deserve that bonus point).
3) The title question
Here, we can hardly expect any great increase in suspense, but of course the values must not be missing, and if Dortmund is already giving something away, we look at it with a little more eagerness. How many percentages did they have to cede and to whom?
Explanation: these figures are the result of a computer simulation, which is based on the current playing strengths of the teams given below. The games are simulated individually on the basis of goal expectations (also given in the text below) and the final table is used to determine the winner.
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
1 Borussia Dortmund 4713 94.26% 1.06
2 FC Bayern Munich 175 3.50% 29
3 Bayer Leverkusen 98 1.96% 51
4 FSV Mainz 05 5 0.10% 1000
5 Hamburger SV 4 0.08% 1250
6 Hannover 96 2 0.04% 2500.00
7 SC Freiburg 2 0.04% 2500.00
8 FC Schalke 04 1 0.02% 5000
9 1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0.00%
11 1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
12 VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
13 Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
14 FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
15 Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
16 1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
17 VfL Wolfsburg 0 0.00%
18 TSG Hoffenheim 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Of course, 94% remains extremely impressive and the word “suspense” doesn’t quite fit yet. Well, it remains to be seen whether there will be another (significant) movement away from 100%, or whether it will consolidate in a straight line.
Changes in chances compared to the previous week due to the results of matchday 19
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championships in percent
FC Bayern Munich 83 1.66%
Bayer Leverkusen 58 1.16%
FC Schalke 04 1 0.02%
Hamburger SV 1 0.02%
SC Freiburg 1 0.02%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
TSG Hoffenheim 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
VfL Wolfsburg 0 0.00%
Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
Hannover 96 -1 -0.02%
FSV Mainz 05 -6 -0.12%
Borussia Dortmund -137 -2.74%
0 0.00%
Dortmund actually with a loss of almost 3%. Quite a lot for a draw, isn’t it? But the second reason is also clear: Bayern with a clear win and they are now the big danger.
4) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
Well, this question is not overly exciting either, especially since this category alone has been built up a little artificially. Nevertheless, we can see that Bayern are the clear favourites, despite their points deficit, due to their playing strength.
The probability distribution for 2nd place after the 19th matchday
Team Number 2nd place 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
FC Bayern Munich 2328 46.56% 2.15
Bayer Leverkusen 1744 34.88% 2.87
Borussia Dortmund 243 4.86% 20.58
FSV Mainz 05 227 4.54% 22.03
Hamburger SV 203 4.06% 24.63
Hannover 96 127 2.54% 39.37
FC Schalke 04 51 1.02% 98.04
TSG Hoffenheim 29 0.58% 172.41
SC Freiburg 27 0.54% 185.19
VfL Wolfsburg 13 0.26% 384.62
Eintracht Frankfurt 4 0.08% 1250.00
Werder Bremen 4 0.08% 1250.00
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Perhaps a little more interesting…
The changes compared to the previous week:
Team Win/Loss absolute Win/Loss in per cent.
Bayer Leverkusen 169 3.38%
FC Bayern Munich 158 3.16%
Borussia Dortmund 119 2.38%
Hamburger SV 26 0.52%
FC Schalke 04 14 0.28%
VfL Wolfsburg 3 0.06%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
Eintracht Frankfurt -7 -0.14%
Werder Bremen -18 -0.36%
TSG Hoffenheim -31 -0.62%
SC Freiburg -36 -0.72%
Hannover 96 -175 -3.50%
FSV Mainz 05 -222 -4.44%
0 0.00%
Leverkusen have gained even more than Bayern, which becomes understandable when you consider that they even occupy 2nd place and have won an away game. Dortmund’s rise in this category is of course exclusively to the detriment of their title chances, while it is very easy to explain the clear losers. Hannover and Mainz with home defeats each. That costs a lot of percentage points, even if you later shrug your shoulders and say, “Well, that was obvious.”
5) The relegation question
There is certainly little movement here, even if the main contender has got itself even deeper into it as a result of the home defeat.
The distribution of relegation percentages
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total1 Borussia Mönchengladbach 85.78% 2.57% 88.35%
2 FC St. Pauli 47.82% 7.18% 55.00%
3 1.FC Köln 28.22% 6.73% 34.95%
4 1.FC Nuremberg 12.18% 5.16% 17.34%
5 VfB Stuttgart 11.02% 4.19% 15.21%
6 1.FC Kaiserslautern 9.86% 3.88% 13.74%
7 Werder Bremen 2.38% 1.36% 3.74%
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70% 1.06% 2.76%
9 VfL Wolfsburg 0.60% 0.53% 1.13%
10 TSG Hoffenheim 0.22% 0.29% 0.51%
11 FC Schalke 04 0.10% 0.15% 0.25%
12 SC Freiburg 0.06% 0.19% 0.25%
13 Hamburger SV 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
14 Hannover 96 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%
15 FSV Mainz 05 0.02% 0.01% 0.03%
16 FC Bayern Munich 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
17 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
18 Borussia Dortmund 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
The order is logical in itself, but we may add that St. Pauli put in a very strong performance (in half 2) and came within a hair’s breadth of victory.
Again, a little more excitement perhaps to be expected in this development.
The change in chances from matchday 18 to 19 with regard to relegation
Team Change in chances1 1.FC Cologne -13.32%
2 VfL Wolfsburg -1.56%
3 VfB Stuttgart -1.38%
4 FC Schalke 04 -0.49%
5 Hamburger SV -0.10%
6 SC Freiburg -0.08%
7 Bayer Leverkusen 0.00%
8 Borussia Dortmund 0.00%
9 FC Bayern Munich 0.00%
10 FSV Mainz 05 0.02%
11 Hannover 96 0.04%
12 FC St. Pauli 0.09%
13 TSG Hoffenheim 0.14%
14 1.FC Nuremberg 0.77%
15 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.22%
16 Werder Bremen 2.18%
17 1.FC Kaiserslautern 5.67%
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.80%
0.00%
FC Köln as the big winner in this category. It should be taken into account that a 3:0 is not only good for the goal difference, but also has a positive effect on the strength of play, which of course improves the chances in the long run. Only: When asked about the logic behind this: Who would deny that a commanding 3-0 win compared to a hard-fought 2-1 win doesn’t really have a very positive effect on self-confidence (and also like to add: the environment)?
The losers are just as understandable: Gladbach have already accumulated plenty of percentages – in this respect, they will perhaps show up less here in the future in the event of further defeats – but had just created a few chances again through the away win, which of course need subsequent results to be realised. Lautern’s main problem could be the amount of the (expected) defeat in terms of chances created. Werder are also still among the losers, which is of course understandable. They have the playing strength, but not enough points.
6) The points expectations and the deviations
Here, the big changes are not to be expected. One’s gaze would rather have to wander in the direction of the average deviation in order to note the correction of the table (or even the continuation of the “surprise season”).
Explanation: for each match, the computer has calculated the chances for 1, X and 2. On the basis of these, a point expectation is mathematically calculated for each team per match according to the formula probability of victory * 3 points + probability of draw * 1 point. The deviations given below compare the points actually achieved with those expected by the computer. In total, the deviation does not have to be 0 for all teams, as the number of expected draws does not have to be congruent with the expected ones, but the three-point rule forces an imbalance. Too many points scored means that there were too few draws.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
1 Borussia Dortmund 33.55 47 13.45 13.45
2 Hannover 96 21.99 34 12.01 12.01
3 FSV Mainz 05 25.91 33 7.09 7.09
4 SC Freiburg 23.43 30 6.57 6.57
5 Bayer Leverkusen 31.61 36 4.39 4.39
6 Eintracht Frankfurt 23.40 26 2.60 2.60
7 1.FC Nürnberg 20.72 23 2.28 2.28
8 Hamburger SV 29.04 30 0.96 0.96
9 1.FC Kaiserslautern 21.44 22 0.56 0.56
10 FC St. Pauli 19.48 19 -0.48 0.48
11 1.FC Köln 20.22 19 -1.22 1.22
12 TSG Hoffenheim 28.60 26 -2.60 2.60
13 FC Bayern Munich 37.21 33 -4.21 4.21
14 FC Schalke 04 29.64 25 -4.64 4.64
15 VfL Wolfsburg 28.50 23 -5.50 5.50
16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 20.40 13 -7.40 7.40
17 Werder Bremen 29.78 22 -7.78 7.78
18 VfB Stuttgart 27.67 16 -11.67 11.67
4.42 95.42
ø Deviation 5.30The big winners remain Dortmund and Hannover, the biggest losers Werder and VfB. Nevertheless, you can see that the overall deviation is decreasing, which indicates a better sorted table – in the sense of the original “expectations”. Last week’s need for explanation has given way: For the sum of the deviations, the absolute deviations of the individual teams are added up. And absolute means “in terms of amount”, regardless of the sign. These amounts can very well be reduced individually, even if the surprises (as will be seen later) predominate in the results themselves.
The average deviation last week was 5.7 points per team, this week it was “only” 5.3 (in the foreign comparison, which was made more often in the past, one saw that the German league was the clear international leader in terms of this measure, i.e. in terms of the perceived tension).
Although the surprises also predominated on this match day, the table was better ordered according to the measure. Even if this seems astonishing at first, a look at the table and the development of the chances shows that this is indeed how it is perceived and one is inclined to agree with the computer (in the end Bayern is on 2, Leverkusen on 3, HSV on 4 and Schalke on 5, you’ll see, there’s no trace of Mainz and Hannover any more; this is what a typical fan conversation might look like). The tendency towards this is recognisable, but whether it will come about in this way is not, even if it is difficult for the author to ignore this impression.
7) Goal expectations and their deviations
The slightly independent consideration of the goal deviations – since this includes the amount of the results – should of course not be missing, but does not hold many surprises.
Explanation: Almost the same applies to goals as to points. The expected goals scored and the expected goals conceded are compared with reality. Too few goals scored count negatively just as too many goals conceded count negatively, the reverse counts positively in each case. Here, the sum of the deviations must be 0, because all expected and not scored goals were not conceded somewhere. The goal average, however, can show a deviation.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation1 Borussia Dortmund 33.58 43 21.86 12 19.28
2 FSV Mainz 05 26.94 30 27.62 21 9.68
3 Hannover 96 23.95 28 30.69 28 6.74
4 TSG Hoffenheim 29.76 35 25.78 26 5.02
5 SC Freiburg 25.53 28 30.05 28 4.52
6 1.FC Kaiserslautern 23.97 29 31.82 33 3.85
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 24.82 24 29.12 25 3.30
8 1.FC Nürnberg 22.98 23 31.77 30 1.79
9 Bayer Leverkusen 33.14 39 24.50 29 1.36
10 1.FC Köln 23.03 22 32.84 34 -2.18
11 FC Bayern Munich 35.41 37 18.00 22 -2.41
12 Hamburger SV 29.85 29 25.38 28 -3.47
13 FC St. Pauli 21.40 20 31.90 34 -3.50
14 VfL Wolfsburg 29.51 26 25.84 26 -3.67
15 VfB Stuttgart 30.20 34 28.00 36 -4.20
16 FC Schalke 04 30.18 26 24.55 25 -4.62
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 25.49 28 35.66 50 -11.83
18 Werder Bremen 31.93 25 26.28 39 -19.65
501.66 526 501.66 526 0.00
Goals ø expected: Goals ø scored: ø Deviation 6.17
2.93 3.08 Here, too, the focus is even more on the average number, which could also provide information about a grown order. And here, too, the confirmation: The trend is downwards. After last week’s (unreported) figure of 6.89 goals difference per team, this has now been reduced to 6.17. It is indeed sorting itself out.
Likewise, just last week a 5:1 victory for Bayern had been moved into the realm of the possible, the imaginable, and such a thing has occurred. The effect: Bayern are now only 2.42 goals behind their expectation. Another win like that and they’ll soon move into the green….
8) The strength of play ranking
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.88 0.96 1.96 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 2.02 1.05 1.92 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.86 1.36 1.37 +0
4 FC Schalke 04 1.55 1.17 1.32 +0
5 VfL Wolfsburg 1.49 1.27 1.17 +1
6 Hamburger SV 1.58 1.35 1.17 -1
7 TSG Hoffenheim 1.58 1.47 1.07 +1
8 Werder Bremen 1.56 1.47 1.06 -1
9 VfB Stuttgart 1.65 1.56 1.06 +0
10 FSV Mainz 05 1.37 1.38 0.99 +0
11 SC Freiburg 1.37 1.51 0.91 +0
12 Hannover 96 1.34 1.57 0.85 +0
13 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.22 1.48 0.82 +0
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.3 1.72 0.76 +0
15 1.FC Köln 1.23 1.63 0.75 +0
16 1.FC Nürnberg 1.15 1.67 0.69 +0
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 2.11 0.61 +0
18 FC St. Pauli 1.09 1.81 0.60 +0
26.53 26.54
Goals ø expected
2.948 9) The mathematical review of the results of matchday 19
Goal expectation
Home Away Result DeviationHSV Frankfurt 1.81 1.13 1 0 -0.81 -1.13
Dortmund Stuttgart 2.39 0.85 1 1 -1.39 0.15
Hannover Schalke 04 1.44 1.34 0 1 -1.44 -0.34
Freiburg Nuremberg 1.81 0.97 1 1 -0.81 0.03
FC Bayern Kaiserslautern 2.53 0.73 5 1 2.47 0.27
Mainz Wolfsburg 1.33 1.17 0 1 -1.33 -0.17
FC Cologne Bremen 1.40 1.44 3 0 1.60 -1.44
Gladbach Leverkusen 1.34 2.24 1 3 -0.34 0.76
Hoffenheim St. Pauli 2.11 0.87 2 2 -0.11 1.13
16.16 10.75 14 10 -2.16 -0.75
Expected goal total Expected goal total: Goal total: Goal total
26.92 2.99 24 2.6667
ø Goal difference: 1.75 Here again is the preview of the 19th matchday in terms of the determination, so that it can then be compared with reality.
The determination (expected) Pairing 1 X 2
HSV Frankfurt 53.04% 23.34% 23.62% 39.16%
Dortmund Stuttgart 71.37% 17.06% 11.57% 55.19%
Hanover Schalke 04 39.35% 25.74% 34.91% 34.30%
Freiburg Nuremberg 57.06% 23.11% 19.84% 41.83%
FC Bayern Kaiserslautern 76.28% 15.07% 8.64% 61.21%
Mainz Wolfsburg 40.13% 27.26% 32.60% 34.17%
FC Cologne Bremen 36.38% 25.52% 38.11% 34.27%
Gladbach Leverkusen 22.19% 20.11% 57.70% 42.26%
Hoffenheim St. Pauli 65.90% 19.77% 14.34% 49.39%
4.62 1.97 2.41 3.92
Average expected commitment: 43.53%
The determination (arrived) Pairing 1 X 2 tendency W-ness arrived
HSV Frankfurt 53.04% 23.34% 23.62% 1 53.04%
Dortmund Stuttgart 71.37% 17.06% 11.57% X 17.06%
Hanover Schalke 04 39.35% 25.74% 34.91% 2 34.91%
Freiburg Nuremberg 57.06% 23.11% 19.84% X 23.11%
FC Bayern Kaiserslautern 76.28% 15.07% 8.64% 1 76.28%
Mainz Wolfsburg 40.13% 27.26% 32.60% 2 32.60%
FC Cologne Bremen 36.38% 25.52% 38.11% 1 36.38%
Gladbach Leverkusen 22.19% 20.11% 57.70% 2 57.70%
Hoffenheim St. Pauli 65.90% 19.77% 14.34% X 19.77%
4.62 1.97 2.41 3.51
Average number of commitments received: 38.98% Here is the interesting question: Was the average expected determination exceeded or undercut? The answer: it was undercut. This translates into the fact that once again the outsider events predominated, as they have done over the entire season. You can also read it quite well in the graph drawn up when you see how often the favourite event did not occur. In total, there were only three favourite victories, and even if these were three of the bigger ones, it is still not enough to reach the overall expectation of 43.53% determination.
Of course, one could philosophise further whether this finding does not simply mean that the computer overestimates the favourites? The First Bundesliga is so balanced that anyone can beat anyone and the computer simply does not recognise this. It always assumes that there are favourites, which do not really exist. What is meant here is much more the level of the favourite position than the side of the favourite.
Well, we are actually in the field of philosophy here. This assessment is only really erroneous if there is someone who can forecast better and puts his figures into the comparison. There is also a flawless mathematical method for this (i.e. for the comparison), but first there would have to be number offers on a probability basis. The only ones available are those from the betting market, which are ultimately based on so-called mass intelligence, i.e. not created by an individual or an alternative computer programme (algorithm).
In addition, one may like to note that the numbers of the betting market also result in a higher favourite than has occurred in reality. This at least suggests that it just happens to be a special season of surprises.
10) Preview of matchday 20
Goal expectation
Home Away
Leverkusen Hannover 2.06 1.18
Bremen FC Bayern 1.28 1.70
Wolfsburg Dortmund 1.10 1.55
Nuremberg HSV 1.25 1.51
Schalke 04 Hoffenheim 1.79 1.07
St. Pauli FC Cologne 1.38 1.36
Kaiserslautern Mainz 1.42 1.40
Stuttgart Freiburg 1.86 1.36
Frankfurt Gladbach 1.90 1.21
14.04 12.33
Expected goal total Expected goal average
26.38 2.93Well, the computer is starting to show some insight as far as the number of goals is concerned. The average has steadily gone down so that the expectation is now back to about where it was before the season. Most of the favourites are quite clear and insightful. St. Pauli against Cologne is about even, which doesn’t have to be to everyone’s taste. On the other hand, Köln have very well shown quite stable performances lately, whereas the trend at St. Pauli has clearly been downwards, despite the last very good performance. Lautern against Mainz is also in the “fairly even” category, but it is also a derby, so that can be accepted (and Lautern is not the favourite).
Explanation: The determination is calculated as the sum of the squares of the individual probabilities, for each match. You can easily check that the minimum fixing is 33.33%. This is the case when all outcomes are exactly equally likely, namely 33.33%.
What is measured by the fixing is the amount of favouritism overall. In the long-term average, the expected and the realised determination is quite exactly at just under 40%. This is the case when a distribution of 50% – 30% – 20% is given (for this, the determination would be 0.50.5 + 0.30.3 + 0.2*0.2 = 0.25 + 0.09 + 0.04 = 0.39 = 39%). This is roughly equivalent to the home advantage in the league.
The determination (expected)
Pairing 1 X 2
Leverkusen Hannover 57.55% 21.31% 21.14% 42.13%
Bremen FC Bayern 28.72% 24.23% 47.05% 36.26%
Wolfsburg Dortmund 26.91% 25.74% 47.35% 36.29%
Nuremberg HSV 31.10% 25.73% 43.18% 34.93%
Schalke 04 Hoffenheim 54.13% 23.51% 22.36% 39.83%
St. Pauli FC Köln 37.17% 26.18% 36.65% 34.10%
Kaiserslautern Mainz 37.60% 25.74% 36.66% 34.20%
Stuttgart Freiburg 49.14% 22.96% 27.90% 37.20%
Frankfurt Gladbach 53.48% 22.64% 23.89% 39.43%
3.76 2.18 3.06 3.34
average expected determination: 37.15% Looking at this matchday, we can see that all pairings are slightly more balanced again this week, so that the expected average commitment shows a much lower value than last week. The main reason for this, however, is once again that both Bayern and Dortmund play away from home, and with quite difficult opponents to boot.
In any case, one can be curious to see what the upcoming matchday offers, also with regard to these assessments. Can the favourites do better next weekend than they have done all season? Could the question of the title become a matter of suspense once again? Curiously, Bayern and Dortmund are favourites by almost exactly the same margin…
Note: The promised “discussion” about the Sky Conference will be carried out in a separate document.
