This week we will again look at the usual points. However, there will be an addition this time as well. The announced examination of the frequency of falling goals, which bring about a change in tendency, is to be carried out.
First of all, here is the sequence for this week: A special review of the individual matches will not be missing this time either. In any case, the table and its peculiarities should also be looked at, then of course the development of the championship chances, a point that could, however, rather spread boredom this week, insofar one can gladly take a look at the also included chances for relegation.
The additionally included statistics about the frequency of goals, which change the tendency, have the following background: The spectators are basically to be divided into the pure fans of a team and the neutral ones. Presumably, a neutral spectator will also have his or her team somewhere in the running, but one cannot count on their participation in every match watched. So there are always the games that one also follows as a quasi-neutral, at least in the sports programme. Now the fan of one of the two teams has a declared goal: to get the maximum out of the game for his team. The fact that this can be achieved by the “dirty 1:0” so often seen lately, or by a thrilling 4:3, or even by destroying the opponent in a 5:0, does not even make much difference to him. Especially tension aspects are subordinate for him as long as his team only gets one result.
The alternative view is for the neutral spectator. He hopes for one thing above all: suspense. This is inevitably linked to great goals, but also to a development in the score. This means that he may be happy about the many goals even if the score is 5-0, but this clear result is clearly to the detriment of the perceived suspense. In a summary, of course, one can endure everything, but when followed over 90 minutes (as the broadcaster Sky Deutschland offers for every match), it can be more likely to lead to a change of programme: “The game is boring. The winner has been decided since 3:0 at the latest.”
Perceived excitement – this can apply to both a live match and a summarised match – is recruited from the sequence of goals, whereby this already implies that there must be at least more than a single goal for this to be perceived. In exceptional cases, of course, a contested 0:0 (for the neutral) can also be exciting, but in itself one would like to see more goals and above all a change in the lead from time to time, at least a surprising equaliser, so that one has right enjoyment.
And it is precisely this aspect that is to be investigated statistically. How often does a goal occur that changes the trend? Or, slightly modified, in how many games does something like this happen, even if it is only temporary (this would be the case if one team leads 1:0, the other team equalises and then the first team scores the winning goal again). Although the team that was initially in the lead would have won in the end, this would have been achieved by a double change of tendency, which promises excitement for the spectator.
The Bundesliga is probably booming in this statistic. This is to be contrasted with a foreign comparison, which expresses this. But first …
1) The matches in retrospect
First of all, here are the bare results:
Eintracht Frankfurt – TSG Hoffenheim 0:4 (0:1)
FC Schalke 04 – Werder Bremen 4:0 (2:0)
Borussia Mönchengladbach – FSV Mainz 05 2:3 (0:0)
SC Freiburg – Borussia Dortmund 1:2 (1:0)
Hannover 96 – Hamburger SV 3:2 (1:1)
- FC Nuremberg – 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1:3 (0:3)
Bayer Leverkusen – FC Bayern Munich 1:1 (1:1)
VfB Stuttgart – 1.FC Köln 0:1 (0:0)
FC St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 (1:0)
Very noticeable, already over the whole season, that this later statistically proven back and forth is abundant. This time in the games Gladbach – Mainz, Hannover – HSV and Freiburg – Dortmund. Exciting for the fan for sure, the possible quality deficiencies that could be uncovered due to the obvious “lead management shortage” have to show themselves on the international stage – or even better remain hidden. After all, one could – every thing has its two sides – also point out that teams that are behind have the ability to make up for it.
A total of 30 goals is once again above the long-term average, and there are also enough surprises, so that one can only repeat: The Bundesliga is booming.
Now to the individual games in the review:
Eintracht Frankfurt – TSG Hoffenheim 0:4 (0:1)
The result suggests a much clearer course of play than there really was. Frankfurt was close to an equaliser for a long time and did not play one bit worse than in the many great games before. The handball penalty that was not given, which was far more than clear, when the score was still 0:1, immediately followed by the two goals conceded, tipped the scales.
FC Schalke 04 – Werder Bremen 4:0 (2:0)
The same applies to this game as to the one before. The victory was too clear. Werder had a good start and the first good opportunity. However, it has to be said that they gradually slumped quite a bit. It must have been the frustration of a longer bad series, which can make your legs heavy when you have to run behind again.
But it should not go unmentioned that Schalke was also in a considerable deficit, not only in terms of expectations but also in terms of performance compared to results. In this respect, they were entitled to a convincing victory. Raul’s world class had been hinted at often enough before, as had Huntelaar’s outstanding one. It shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that it worked out that way.
It’s strange at this stage of the season that teams that both desperately want to make amends seem to be meeting each other repeatedly. Only one of them can do it. It is pointless, however, to pick on the other (as the media likes to do), because at least in this case it is obvious that if the outcome had been the other way round, it would have been the opponent who got it. And, according to abundant observation, in the case of a draw, both of them. “They’re treading water” or “The draw doesn’t help anyone.” No, right, but a defeat does?
Borussia Mönchengladbach – FSV Mainz 05 2:3 (0:0)
The game was much like the entire recent run of these two teams. Mainz had a clear plus in luck at the beginning of the season, but in the last five games had almost balanced this out again with bad luck. Gladbach had now also made some very positive headlines with the great victories of 6:3 in Leverkusen and the recent 4:0 in Cologne, but of course also did so in a negative sense, for example with the 0:7 in Stuttgart.
A varied course of events here, which in the end saw Mainz on the winner’s rostrum, which, however, should by no means be described as “deserved”. It was a hard-fought game in which Gladbach even managed to turn an intermediate equaliser into a lead after 69 minutes – only to come away empty-handed in the end. Well, in a way, you can begrudge them both. A draw would simply have been fair.
In principle, this pairing was also one of those “it’s both of them again with a good result”. Only one of them can do it. The Mainz team with the lucky end in their favour.
SC Freiburg – Borussia Dortmund 1:2 (1:0)
Well, the only game that deserved to be called “boring”. Not, of course, in terms of the overly dramatic course, but rather the (so reliably) predictable eventual winner. Certainly, the second half was dominated by Dortmund and they definitely deserved a goal. Apart from the fact that Freiburg was the team that Fortuna had smiled at enough so far. Nevertheless, it was tragic for Freiburg to have to leave the pitch as losers in such a committed game. Especially when you remember the last great chance with the crossbar header.
Hannover 96 – Hamburger SV 3:2 (1:1)
Lead – fall behind – win. Again, everything in this game. A last-minute winning goal can always be considered lucky, even if the performance gives no cause for complaint. Nevertheless, the game was even and would not have deserved a winner either. However, the will and the belief is recognisable in all teams that it is possible to score a goal even late on. This is worthy of all honour and the fans appreciate it – as the packed stadiums prove, even in very autumnal weather.
On the other hand, such a course of events has repeatedly affected Hannover in a positive sense this season, and HSV rather in a negative sense. It’s not quite fair. But exciting.
- FC Nuremberg – 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1:3 (0:3)
Well, 1. FC Kaiserslautern had already played similarly strong in many games before (example: Freiburg) and had not achieved the hoped-for result. The fact that it was their turn at some point was to be welcomed and was foreseeable in the sense that those responsible did not raise any doubts about the right appointment of Marco Kurz as coach, even during the long winless streak. The performance was simply right – even before – then the results will come at some point. Nuremberg had a very solid points cushion, so they can easily put away a temporary setback. In this sense, everything was just right in this game.
It was astonishing that Nuremberg, despite being shorthanded, were very close to scoring a goal towards the end – example: a missed penalty – so that one could have imagined a turnaround even in this game.
It’s possible that all teams are “infected” by how other games have gone. “Last week they turned one from 0:3, we can do that too.” Something like that. While Lautern, on the other hand, once giving out (against Stuttgart a week ago after 0:3 to 3:3), might get heavy legs this time, out of fear that it could happen to them too. After all, they’ve already experienced it. So why shouldn’t it happen again?
Bayer Leverkusen – FC Bayern Munich 1:1 (1:1)
Yes, Bayern are by no means favoured by luck now. As Bastian Schweinsteiger rightly put it after the game: “Nobody played us here…”. No, Bayern are actually the better team in every game. The fact that the goals are not scored as systematically as hoped by those involved and responsible can be attributed to a considerable extent to the factor of “bad luck”, even if repeated use of these terms makes it look very much like amateurism, which is probably the common view. In all games, they had more possession and, for the most part, more corner kicks and goal chances. It can happen that they don’t make the most of them, while at the same time the opponents make better use of fewer and perhaps even less good scoring opportunities (Bayern’s record is still positive at 5 – 5 – 3, just not positive enough, both in terms of demands and performance).
In this match, Bayern dominated quite clearly – and this was after all the case with Leverkusen, who are ahead of them in the standings and are already rated highly, in their stadium; a circumstance that is definitely suitable for revealing the true strength of the game: Bayern are the best after all – and quite logically took a 1:0 lead. Leverkusen never came close to scoring until shortly before the break when a seemingly harmless foul led to a penalty kick and the equaliser. A goal that was by no means expected.
The fact that we are now a little crestfallen – the timing and the unnecessary action itself – should be forgiven, especially in view of the somewhat unfavourable course of the season. Especially as you have to consider that you are playing in a foreign stadium and with a top team. The final result of 1:1 can very well be described as “normal”, especially as Leverkusen deserved the draw due to their much better performance in the second half (which was of course helped by the equaliser). Why anyone would want to pin a blemish on Bayern because of this result is incomprehensible. The only reason is that they did not score enough in the previous games. Before the season and not knowing how the season was going until then, one would have been quite satisfied with a draw at a strong rival. It’s results like that that make you champions. Draw away, win at home. Just not when points are already missing and a competitor is winning consistently.
VfB Stuttgart – 1.FC Köln 0:1 (0:0)
Surely it was also the turn of the badly shaken 1.FC Köln to have a sense of achievement. However, the fact that the Stuttgart team, which is clearly on an upward trend, was caught up in terms of points by Cologne as a result of this defeat is quite surprising – and therefore a reflection of the entire Bundesliga season so far. Nothing seems even remotely predictable.
In the first half, Cologne still had to survive some very anxious moments, in the second they stabilised. Certainly, the penalty given was more than questionable, but one may recall the scene in the first half committed against Novakovic and not penalised, when he was heckled by two opponents. Even if it was hard on the edge of the penalty area – by no means inside it – a fairly dark traffic light colour would have been possible if the clear violation of the rules had been punished.
FC St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 (1:0)
A game about which there is not too much to say. The first half clearly went to St. Pauli, who had not quite received the reward for some good performances lately. Wolfsburg, however, were very colourless in this encounter. The 1:0 at the break was actually a little too little reward for their superiority.
When Wolfsburg equalised quite soon after the break, one would have thought they had something in them – which, however, did not happen at all. Therefore, one should not say that the result was deserved. St. Pauli were better overall, especially because of the first half. One with clear advantages, one balanced. Well, there would actually only be one winner?
2) The current table situation
Sp S U N Pkt Tore Gtore Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 13 11 1 1 34 31 – 8 +23
2 FSV Mainz 05 13 9 0 4 27 22 – 14 +8
3 Bayer Leverkusen 13 7 4 2 25 24 – 17 +7
4 Hannover 96 13 7 1 5 22 17 – 22 -5
5 TSG Hoffenheim 13 6 3 4 21 26 – 16 +10
6 SC Freiburg 13 7 0 6 21 19 – 20 -1
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 13 6 2 5 20 – 15 +5
8 FC Bayern Munich 13 5 5 3 20 19 – 14 +5
9 Hamburger SV 13 5 3 5 18 19 – 20 -1
10 1.FC Nürnberg 13 5 3 5 18 18 – 21 -3
11 VfL Wolfsburg 13 4 3 6 15 21 – 22 -1
12 Werder Bremen 13 4 3 6 15 19 – 31 -12
13 1.FC Kaiserslautern 13 4 2 7 14 20 – 25 -5
14 FC St. Pauli 13 4 2 7 14 13 – 20 -7
15 FC Schalke 04 13 3 4 6 13 19 – 19 +0
16 VfB Stuttgart 13 3 2 8 11 25 – 23 +2
17 1.FC Köln 13 3 2 8 11 14 – 26 -12
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 13 2 4 7 10 23 – 36 -13
The fact remains that a real “correction” is not taking place. There was hardly anything positive to report from the teams that are lagging behind in terms of expectations and performance. Bayern, Wolfsburg drew, Werder, Stuttgart lost, although Werder’s defeat was inflicted by the other problem child, Schalke, and is therefore not included. And even the higher ranked HSV is not getting into its stride. All in all, this matchday will hardly be able to lower the number of surprises. At least it can be said that the teams lagging furthest behind expectations – Stuttgart and Schalke – both have no negative goal difference. On the other hand, Werder now have a really disastrous one, which is cause for concern all in all – especially from Bremen’s point of view, of course. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned here that by no means the coach is considered responsible for this. There were enough great games this season that showed the old SV Werder. After all, the team managed to get into the Champions League, and even something like that, as nice as it is for the fans, can lead to a diminution of league performance.
3) The development of the title chances
The distribution of chances by computer simulation after matchday 13
(5000 runs)
Borussia Dortmund 4283 85.66% 1.17
Bayer Leverkusen 280 5.60% 18
FC Bayern Munich 270 5.40% 19
FSV Mainz 05 60 1.20% 83
TSG Hoffenheim 59 1.18% 85
Hamburger SV 16 0.32% 313
SC Freiburg 7 0.14% 714
VfL Wolfsburg 7 0.14% 714
Werder Bremen 6 0.12% 833
FC Schalke 04 5 0.10% 1000
Eintracht Frankfurt 4 0.08% 1250
VfB Stuttgart 1 0.02% 5000
1.FC Nuremberg 1 0.02% 5000
Hannover 96 1 0.02% 5000
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Due to Dortmund’s consistent wins, it’s a bit boring in the title race, at least for now. Not much is moving on the betting market in terms of money either. It’s not the hotly debated question for the moment, so to speak. We know that there are still a lot of games left, we enjoy the changeable course of the games, like the many goals, but still prescribe patience for the time being. Maybe there will be movement at some point, maybe not. The increase in Dortmund’s chances is enormous due to their own victories away from home and simultaneous draws by their main rivals, as can also be seen from the statistics shown below.
The change in chances from matchday 12 to matchday 13
Team Gain/Loss from Matchday 12 to Matchday 13 Gain in per cent
Borussia Dortmund 303 6.06%
TSG Hoffenheim 31 0.62%
FSV Mainz 05 8 0.16%
FC Schalke 04 3 0.06%
- FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart -2 -0.04%
Hannover 96 -4 -0.08%
VfL Wolfsburg -8 -0.16%
Eintracht Frankfurt -10 -0.20%
Werder Bremen -11 -0.22%
SC Freiburg -22 -0.44%
Hamburger SV -34 -0.68%
Bayer Leverkusen -101 -2.02%
FC Bayern Munich -153 -3.06%
The winner of the match day, once again, Borussia Dortmund, clear loser Bayern AND Leverkusen. That it affects Bayern even more is actually clear after a moment’s thought: they are simply the best team and therefore favourites in practically every match. Their already low chances are nevertheless well nourished by the possibility of simply winning games. This did not happen. This costs the actual top favourites considerably in terms of chances. But one can also see quite well how devastating such a draw is for the second competitor, Bayer Leverkusen, who were also blessed with good chances before. The Dortmunders can indeed rub their hands – as one question in the interviews intuitively put it. Of course, they would never do it because a) they only look at themselves and b) they only ever think from game to game, as the answers to the questions taught us. However, contrary to the common view that this should gradually make the phrase bank fat-bellied, the opinion here is much more likely to be that it is the truth and eminently sensible to boot. What would be the point of proclaiming full-bodied goals for the season – this applies to every team, of course – only to have to listen to even sillier questions about achieving them after the next defeat?
In case you were wondering about Hannover’s loss of chances: The reason is that there can always be random shifts in very unlikely events. But there is also the aspect that while they derive their very slim chances on the one hand from their own victories (which they have even achieved), they are additionally dependent on the stumbling of rivals – and this point has just not been fulfilled. This would be obvious, for example, on the penultimate match day, when a team still has quite good chances if it wins its match AND AT the same time the competitor concedes something. The team wins, we assume, but so does the competitor. Then their chances – in a suitable constellation – have fallen to 0% despite their own victory.
It is also worth mentioning that there was another winner. If you want to interpret this result: A high win at a competitor. This can mean a mighty boost for a good team — of which Hoffenheim is one. And of all the serious contenders, Hoffenheim is both the best team and a winner. Mainz also won a bit in terms of chances, but is still not considered enough as a serious contender (by the computer). As you can see quite well here, the points gap in the table of Hoffenheim to Mainz is pretty much exactly compensated by the higher playing strength, so that the probabilities of the two in percent are almost exactly the same.
4) The relegated teams
This week, the chances of relegation are to be included. To do this, a distinction must be made between relegation and direct relegation. Consequently, the chances of relegation through relegation are listed here first.
Since the teams from the first division go into the race for relegation as favourites, intuitively 1/3 of the chance of reaching 16th place was calculated as a chance of relegation. This first table was made analogous to the 1st place, just to prove that the computer can do that too.
The chances of the teams for “reaching” the relegation place
(5000 runs)
Team 16th place in 5000 attempts 16th place in percent% the fair quota as the reciprocal of the probability 1/3 of the chance for the relegation place leads to relegation resulting number of relegations to 5000
FC St. Pauli 891 17.82% 5.61 5.94% 297.00
1.FC Köln 812 16.24% 6.16 5.41% 270.67
1.FC Kaiserslautern 786 15.72% 6.36 5.24% 262.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach 740 14.80% 6.76 4.93% 246.67
1.FC Nuremberg 523 10.46% 9.56 3.49% 174.33
VfB Stuttgart 366 7.32% 13.66 2.44% 122.00
Werder Bremen 172 3.44% 29.07 1.15% 57.33
Hannover 96 163 3.26% 30.67 1.09% 54.33
Eintracht Frankfurt 139 2.78% 35.97 0.93% 46.33
FC Schalke 04 112 2.24% 44.64 0.75% 37.33
VfL Wolfsburg 109 2.18% 45.87 0.73% 36.33
SC Freiburg 98 1.96% 51.02 0.65% 32.67
Hamburger SV 58 1.16% 86.21 0.39% 19.33
TSG Hoffenheim 20 0.40% 250.00 0.13% 6.67
FSV Mainz 05 11 0.22% 454.55 0.07% 3.67
FC Bayern Munich 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00
Bayer Leverkusen 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00
5000 100.00% 33.33% 1666.67
Why FC St. Pauli are now favourites for this place is idle to discuss. It may even partly follow a coincidence, on the other hand, extreme swings are not necessarily to be expected if they occur very often. It is a combination of playing strength and current table situation, probably.
In the second table, all chances are added up equally, i.e. the percentage to be relegated through relegation was added to the chance to be relegated directly.
The teams’ chances of relegation from the Bundesliga
(5000 runs)
Team Sum of 17th and 18th places in percent Added chance of relegation
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2909 58.18% 63.11%
1.FC Köln 2379 47.58% 52.99%
FC St. Pauli 1970 39.40% 45.34%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 1157 23.14% 28.38%
1.FC Nuremberg 622 12.44% 15.93%
VfB Stuttgart 386 7.72% 10.16%
Werder Bremen 118 2.36% 3.51%
Hanover 96 118 2.36% 3.45%
Eintracht Frankfurt 91 1.82% 2.75%
FC Schalke 04 85 1.70% 2.45%
SC Freiburg 57 1.14% 1.79%
VfL Wolfsburg 51 1.02% 1.75%
Hamburger SV 46 0.92% 1.31%
TSG Hoffenheim 5 0.10% 0.23%
FSV Mainz 05 5 0.10% 0.17%
Bayer Leverkusen 1 0.02% 0.02%
FC Bayern Munich 0 0.00% 0.00%
Borussia Dortmund 0 0.00% 0.00%
200.00% 233.33%
The sum of the relegated teams is 233%. This means, so to speak, that 2 1/3 teams will be relegated this season, expressed as a rough estimate, i.e. as an expected value. This assumption will, of course, apply to every season thereafter with the relegation rule.
The favourites in this category are quite clear: the two teams in the last places, which also had to be considered as co-candidates, already before the season. The fact that their “lead” is quite clear is due to the fact that the teams between them and the direct “serious” competitors, namely Stuttgart and Schalke, have the higher playing strength, so they can free themselves well (as you can see Schalke even much better than Stuttgart) and the next competitors accordingly already have a certain cushion. Nevertheless, St. Pauli are by no means out of reach, which is intuitively immediately obvious: As great as they have done so far, their points tally is not significantly higher and their ability is at the lower end of the scale, even for Bundesliga level.
In fact, only Gladbach and Cologne are already favourites for relegation, so their chances of staying in are lower than those of being relegated. That also makes sense: Someone has to bite the dust. And they have the fewest points and little else that positively sets them apart from the others. Even if they are as good as other candidates, the few points clearly speak against them. Add to this the phenomenon that more than one (and even more than two) teams have to be relegated, so that more than one team can be favourite (probability > 50%) to be relegated.
5) The disorder of the table
Yes, there is one question that should also be addressed, albeit only marginally: Is the table beginning to sort itself out after all? Of course, one should assume that luck gradually eliminates itself over a long season and that quality actually prevails. However, the following modern phenomenon can be observed, which again speaks against it: Even if there were originally qualitative differences, these are quite easily compensated for by the one that has become almost more valuable. It is mental strength, mental condition, self-confidence. When teams, for whatever reason – luck as a possibility – start winning games in a row, there is a pretty good chance that this streak will simply continue. The players believe in themselves and don’t ask themselves about their income or their market value – or that of the higher-paid competition. The games are decided today, the truth is on the pitch. Win this game now, show what you can do, don’t ask about the size of the name of the opponents, you can do it, you’ve got it. Go up, take the pill and hit it into the box.
If you translate this to the current season, it brings the following insights to light: Mainz’s flight of fancy lasted for a long time, was suddenly interrupted, and could now be resumed. After all, the team is in second place, despite a persuaded, observed “crisis”.
Dortmund proves week after week how much is possible when you swim on the wave of success. There is no doubt that the team has excellent quality. But aren’t some of the victories essentially based on increased self-confidence? Simply this: We keep playing forward. We have already scored the decisive goal a few times. Why not today as well? And the ball is already in.
In any case, we can look forward to further developments. Nevertheless, here is the table, which, despite the phenomena described above, is at least given objectively by the computer insofar as it does not take them into account but simply assumes the expectations calculated in advance – and soberly determines the deviations from them.
Expected points and points scored as well as the deviations after the 13th matchday of the 2010/2011 season
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
Borussia Dortmund 21.19 34 12.81 12.81
FSV Mainz 05 17.06 27 9.94 9.94
Hannover 96 13.62 22 8.38 8.38
SC Freiburg 14.70 21 6.30 6.30
1.FC Nuremberg 14.37 18 3.63 3.63
Eintracht Frankfurt 16.55 20 3.45 3.45
Bayer Leverkusen 21.62 25 3.38 3.38
TSG Hoffenheim 19.11 21 1.89 1.89
FC St. Pauli 14.08 14 -0.08 0.08
1.FC Kaiserslautern 14.39 14 -0.39 0.39
Hamburger SV 20.16 18 -2.16 2.16
1.FC Köln 13.84 11 -2.84 2.84
Borussia Mönchengladbach 14.64 10 -4.64 4.64
VfL Wolfsburg 20.21 15 -5.21 5.21
FC Bayern Munich 25.41 20 -5.41 5.41
Werder Bremen 20.86 15 -5.86 5.86
FC Schalke 04 20.49 13 -7.49 7.49
VfB Stuttgart 20.77 11 -9.77 9.77
93.62
ø Deviation 5.20As before, Borussia Dortmund is the top-ranked team, which was to be expected without reservation. Mainz has regained second place. And sticking right at the back are the “heavyweights” Stuttgart, Schalke, Werder and Bayern.
Not surprisingly, after interpreting the results as above, the surprises prevailed again. The average deviation has grown to 5.2 points per team, compared to the 5.02 points of the previous week. (Remember the international comparison, in which England, Italy and Spain all delivered values between 2.4 and 2.8 points deviation per team, and in that sense played “normal”, but also “boring”).
This is confirmed except by intuitive insight, if one looks again at the results in terms of the occurrence of favourite events, which would ultimately be responsible for the correction of both the table and the deviation. There were actually only two relatively clear favourites. Those were Dortmund and Stuttgart. Only one of them won, the other lost (a loss brings much more “disorder” than a draw, as the latter is much more likely). Kaiserslautern’s win in Nuremberg must clearly be seen as a surprise. Furthermore, the draws at St. Pauli and Leverkusen are also not the favourite events, as well as the Hanover victory, although this game was relatively even beforehand. In themselves, the games of Mainz at Gladbach and Hoffenheim at Frankfurt fall just as much into this category: there was no clear favourite, but if anything, it was the wafer-thin outsider who did it. So almost only the Schalke victory remains as a favourite event, and even they were certainly not a clear favourite, as we can already hear from the pairing against Werder Bremen, i.e. a strong opponent.
So this matchday was also not suitable for order or correction in terms of results, but for that very reason it was certainly extremely entertaining again for the fan. You have to reckon with everything, if you want to put it that way – and that’s just fun.
6) The goal discrepancies
One can still quickly take a look at the goal deviations, how the development is there. Here is the table in the order maximum positive deviation to maximum negative:
Goal expectations and goals scored after matchday 13.
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation
Borussia Dortmund 20.95 31 15.87 8 17.92
FSV Mainz 05 18.28 22 19.83 14 9.55
TSG Hoffenheim 19.80 26 17.75 16 7.96
Eintracht Frankfurt 17.63 20 19.73 15 7.10
SC Freiburg 16.25 19 21.45 20 4.19
1.FC Nuremberg 15.64 18 21.40 21 2.76
Hannover 96 15.20 17 22.14 22 1.94
Bayer Leverkusen 22.58 24 16.68 17 1.10
1.FC Kaiserslautern 16.19 20 21.78 25 0.59
FC St. Pauli 15.32 13 21.09 20 -1.24
VfB Stuttgart 21.93 25 17.42 23 -2.51
FC Schalke 04 21.03 19 16.85 19 -4.18
Hamburger SV 20.30 19 16.75 20 -4.54
VfL Wolfsburg 20.83 21 17.24 22 -4.58
1.FC Köln 15.80 14 22.62 26 -5.19
FC Bayern Munich 23.93 19 12.18 14 -6.75
Borussia Mönchengladbach 17.42 23 23.01 36 -7.40
Werder Bremen 22.31 19 17.59 31 -16.71
341.38 369 341.38 369 0.00
ø Deviation 5.90As you would expect, Dortmund have consolidated their top position here too. They are simply playing outstandingly and achieving consistently good results. Mainz has also regained second place here. The following Hoffenheim and Frankfurt may already be a slight surprise, but the scoring ratios are just very favourable with +10 (Hoffenheim) and +5 (Frankfurt), whereby Frankfurt just originally ranked further back in the rankings, so had lower expectations. Of course, there was an extreme shift in favour of Hoffenheim, especially in the match between the two, due to the 4:0.
You can see that even Lautern is already in the plus in this category due to the away win.
At the bottom of the table, and now some way behind, is SV Werder. Of course, the level of the defeats (most recently there was also the 0:6 in Stuttgart, now the 0:4 at Schalke) is responsible here. Bayern – always the centre of attention – are also quite far behind with -4.58, but you can see that with two or three good results they can correct this relatively quickly, at least in this table. “Only” just under five goals too few scored and not even two too many conceded.
Note, for example, that Borussia Mönchengladbach scored about 5.5 goals too many – i.e. were very successful there – while conceding 13 too many, which of course catapults them backwards overall. One could, however, consider listing goals scored and goals conceded separately. Then they would be far ahead in one category.
The average deviation should only be mentioned here, not calculated: It has landed at 5.9 goals per team. Compared to last week, when it was 5.87 goals, it has also increased, but only minimally. There is no higher order, but this could not be expected on the basis of the results.
The goal average has also risen further – and with it the deviation from the expected goal total. Last week there were “only” 24 goals too many, this week there are already more than 27.5. Obviously, the computer expected 3.5 fewer goals this week than were finally scored. But even without this statistic, you can see that everyone is simply playing optimistically forward – and it’s constantly clattering.
The note repeats: With every result that is above the expectation, the computer adjusts the goal expectations of the individual teams – and thus also the sum of the expected goals for the individual matches. If the number of goals is constantly increasing, the computer will soon realise that it was wrong – and thus gradually get on the right track. Where the truth lies is difficult to judge. Particularly since changing styles of play seem to be spreading. In Germany, this style is very specific: always forward. Only the future can tell whether this tactic will prove its worth in the long run and whether it will be adhered to in the following phase of the season, when real battles for points are beginning to be fought.
7) The statistics of goals that change the trend
Finally, an attempt to make the perceived excitement of the game measurable in some way. The author is allowed to mention to himself that this statistic first had to be created by programming and thus the result was completely open. So far, it has usually been confirmed that a statistic compiled on the basis of a certain observation confirms the observation made. In this respect, this is also proof of the well-known saying: Don’t trust statistics that you haven’t falsified yourself. However, “falsified” can be confidently replaced by “created”.
So you make the observation, you notice something, something catches your eye. This is the only way to get the idea to examine this in detail. And one finds confirmation. Here, much more objectivity is now possible, because it is in any case an ongoing process. So you can look at these figures today, be amazed or surprised, and maybe again in three months to find that everything has “normalised” again. It was just a temporary outbreak of special joy of playing, let’s call it that. To the delight of the fans, of course, this should not go unmentioned.
The statistics are presented in a simple but comprehensible form: First, every goal is counted that changes the tendency in the score, except for the 1:0. A change in tendency always takes place when either a team takes the lead with a goal scored, or a team equalises with the goal just scored. Goals that confirm the tendency are not counted. A 2:0, a 3:0, but also a 3:1 – regardless of whether it is the third goal for one team or the first goal for the other — is not counted. Only equalising or leading goals count, except for the 1:0 (it is not counted because without it the action cannot even begin).
Statistics of the leading and equalising goals
Germany
Season Equalising goals Home leading goal (without 1:0) Away leading goal (without 0:1) Total Number of matches in percent
2007 161 58 48 267 306 87.25%
2008 143 48 36 227 306 74.18%
2009 148 54 34 236 306 77.12%
2010 151 39 54 244 306 79.74%
2011 67 29 23 119 117 101.71%
Sum 670 228 195 1093 1341 81.51%
Beautiful to look at. Especially the confirmation. In the previous four seasons the figure was regularly in the region of 80%, this season it is actually over 100%. This of course casts some doubt on the writer’s sanity, but it should at least be mentioned that there can be more than one change in tendency per game. This is exactly the case for this season. It is possible that the term “in percent” has been incorrectly chosen and should read “change of tendency per game”.
In any case, this confirms what one intuitively perceives: There are a lot of surprising turns in games. In other words, on average “something happens in every game”. And almost even more…
Note: This statistic only takes into account changes in tendency. If you think about it a bit, you will notice that Mainz’s 4:3 in Wolfsburg only shows up with two changes in tendency: Mainz’s equaliser, and their later opening goal count. Yet it is precisely such a game that is maximally responsible for the perceived drama, the high tension. It is actually the most remarkable game and is almost “flattened” by this kind of statistics. If one wanted to count this extra, one would have to introduce a ranking of the goals. So the Mainz 1:3 was worth something in this case, because it later led to a point gain – even victory. So this 1:3 would have to be counted, whereas another one — for example the Nuremberg 1:3 from the weekend — would not, because it did not help to change the frequency later on.
Likewise, the dramatic 3:3 of Lauter against Stuttgart from the previous week after trailing 0:3 is only recorded with a single change of tendency. Also one of the category “there’s no such thing.”
At least that one gets another impression and perhaps proof for this – including the foreign envy of our league — a few figures still in the foreign comparison:
Statistics of leading and equalising goals
England
Equalising goals Home goals (without 1:0) Away goals (without 0:1) Total number of games in per cent2007 157 62 31 250 380 65.79%
2008 184 66 44 294 380 77.37%
2009 155 56 45 256 380 67.37%
2010 173 69 40 282 380 74.21%
2011 69 32 14 115 140 82.14%
Sum 738 285 174 1197 1660 72.11%
Even England has been hit by the German virus, it seems. Whereas in the last four seasons it was more likely to be around 70% – and thus well behind Germany’s eventfulness there, too — this season it has risen to over 80%, at least temporarily.
Here are the “slide rule artists” from Italy who have been known for their results football since the 1960s at the latest.
Statistics of leading and equalising goals
Italy
Equalising goals Home leading goals (without 1:0) Away leading goals (without 0:1) Total number of matches in percent
2007 183 66 42 291 380 76.58%
2008 192 63 47 302 380 79.47%
2009 175 61 36 272 380 71.58%
2010 204 75 58 337 380 88.68%
2011 44 17 9 70 130 53.85%
Sum 798 282 192 1272 1650 77.09%
The trend in Italy is completely reversed. Nothing is happening this season. Whoever leads wins, so to speak. Before, however, the Italians were even more enterprising than the English, who were so highly praised for their commitment and willingness to fight. Of course, you could put it another way: In the meantime, tactical perfection is at its highest in England, as can be seen from the international results.
