The mathematical review of the results of the 33rd matchday
At this point, the predicted goal expectations are compared with the reality, as well as the expected determination with the arrived one.
Goal expectation
Home Away Total DeviationHoffenheim Nürnberg 1.28 0.89 2.17 2 3 0.72 2.11
Kaiserslautern Dortmund 0.46 2.16 2.62 2 5 1.54 2.84
Leverkusen Hannover 1.74 1.06 2.80 1 0 -0.74 -1.06
Schalke 04 Hertha 2.58 0.96 3.54 4 0 1.42 -0.96
FC Bayern Stuttgart 2.51 0.91 3.42 2 0 -0.51 -0.91
Freiburg FC Cologne 1.73 1.23 2.96 4 1 2.27 -0.23
Gladbach Augsburg 1.61 0.74 2.36 0 0 -1.61 -0.74
HSV Mainz 1.43 1.34 2.77 0 0 -1.43 -1.34
Wolfsburg Werder 1.81 1.29 3.10 3 1 1.19 -0.29
15.15 10.59 25.74 18 10 2.85 -0.59
Expected goal total Expected goal average Scored goal average
25.74 2.86 3.11 ø expected goal difference 1.87 ø goal difference 2.43
This time there were more goals than expected, which would again correspond to the effect – which, by the way, is predetermined by the market – that at the end of the season not all teams defend too meticulously. However, being outscored by 2.26 goals is so far within the bounds that it can also be attributed to any other coincidences. However, Kaiserslautern against Dortmund — a game in which the positions of both teams are fixed — would be a typical example. It was also the only game in which nothing was at stake.
The expected goal difference was also far exceeded, partly due to such results. The home teams dominated (more than expected) which is also partly due to the announced effect: one wants to be remembered as much as possible by the home crowd for the coming season.
The determination expected/arrived
The match is expected Pairing 1 X 2
Hoffenheim Nuremberg 45.29% 29.10% 25.61% 35.54%
Kaiserslautern Dortmund 6.55% 16.62% 76.83% 62.23%
Leverkusen Hannover 53.14% 24.07% 22.79% 39.23%
Schalke 04 Hertha 72.12% 16.10% 11.78% 56.00%
FC Bayern Stuttgart 71.95% 16.44% 11.61% 55.81%
Freiburg FC Cologne 48.82% 24.13% 27.06% 36.97%
Gladbach Augsburg 57.95% 25.04% 17.02% 42.74%
HSV Mainz 38.83% 26.14% 35.03% 34.18%
Wolfsburg Werder 49.43% 23.44% 27.13% 37.29%
4.44 2.01 2.55 4.00
average expected determination: 44.44%Here, always as a reminder, are the values from the previous week. The main point is that the expected determination is calculated here once again in a comprehensible way.
The determination arrived Pairing 1 X 2 Tendency
Hoffenheim Nuremberg 45.29% 29.10% 25.61% 2 25.61%
Kaiserslautern Dortmund 6.55% 16.62% 76.83% 2 76.83%
Leverkusen Hannover 53.14% 24.07% 22.79% 1 53.14%
Schalke 04 Hertha 72.12% 16.10% 11.78% 1 72.12%
FC Bayern Stuttgart 71.95% 16.44% 11.61% 1 71.95%
Freiburg FC Cologne 48.82% 24.13% 27.06% 1 48.82%
Gladbach Augsburg 57.95% 25.04% 17.02% 0 25.04%
HSV Mainz 38.83% 26.14% 35.03% 0 26.14%
Wolfsburg Werder 49.43% 23.44% 27.13% 1 49.43%
5 2 2 4.49
Average determination achieved: 49.90%The expected determination was clearly exceeded, making the announced favourite matchday (expected with 44.44%) an even clearer one. All top favourites won their matches – those with over 70% even, Bayern, Dortmund, Schalke –, furthermore Leverkusen, Freiburg and Wolfsburg, whereas there were only three outsider events, which overall makes for this result understandable. However, to read tendencies from this would actually be pure nonsense, especially since the market did not confirm these clear favourites at all. In fact, the market had called for bets on Schalke, Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen, Wolfsburg and Freiburg, which suggests that the clear favourites were not recognised. In this case, the computer clearly prevailed over the market, which is also reflected in the virtual bets (not all of them unfortunately evaluated…).
