The mathematical review of the results of matchday 32

At this point, the predicted goal expectations are compared with the reality, as well as the expected determination with the arrived one.

``````    Goal expectation
Home Away Total Deviation``````

Mainz Wolfsburg 2.01 1.27 3.28 0 0 -2.01 -1.27
Hoffenheim Leverkusen 1.33 1.23 2.56 0 1 -1.33 -0.23
Werder FC Bayern 1.01 1.76 2.77 1 2 -0.01 0.24
Hertha Kaiserslautern 1.52 0.71 2.23 1 2 -0.52 1.29
Nürnberg HSV 1.44 1.02 2.47 1 1 -0.44 -0.02
FC Cologne Stuttgart 1.42 2.28 3.71 1 1 -0.42 -1.28
Dortmund Gladbach 1.74 0.70 2.45 2 0 0.26 -0.70
Augsburg Schalke 04 1.16 1.51 2.67 1 1 -0.16 -0.51
Hannover Freiburg 1.88 1.16 3.04 0 0 -1.88 -1.16
13.52 11.65 25.17 7 8 -6.52 -3.65

``````    Expected goal total Expected goal average Goal average scored
25.17 2.80 1.67     ``````

ø expected goal difference 1.86 ø goal difference 1.53

Absolute goal drought, which is rather surprising, especially towards the end of the season, but it also proves that all teams are taking it seriously until the end. After all, there is still some kind of decision for almost every team, as well as a fight for places, which are even rewarded differently financially.

Nobody wants to be accused of “distorting the competition”, which is a good thing. Nevertheless, it is of course disappointing for the true fan (the one of football, this almost extinct species, which in any case has a completely different face than that of a team) to have to watch a lot of lousy draws, most of them goalless, but at the same time pouring water on the author’s mills, because he urgently pleads for more goals, which would already be easily achieved by the simple means of correct application of the rules. How many times did we have to hear during the last two weekends: “He should have given a penalty”, but he didn’t? Was there a single questionable penalty decision in return to compensate for all these denied big chances? How often was it “offside … oh, but it was very close, you could only see it with a magnifying glass”, or “he was wrong here, it wasn’t ‘onside'”, but at best heard the words “but it was actually offside” at a ratio of 1 to 10, but the game went on? The one case that even led to a goal was far more than debatable, but was claimed to be so, because Pizarro was not offside, but one of his body parts was closer to the goal line than all of the opponents in question, only it was his hand or his whole arm and as far as one does not accuse him of malice, coupled with the referee’s blindness, he really could not have scored a goal with this body part.

The overs all came to nothing, and even one of the indicated unders – the one at Hertha – did not come. On the other hand, this one in particular had been discouraged.

``````The commitment expected/arrived

The fixing expected         ``````

Pairing 1 X 2
Mainz Wolfsburg 54.44% 21.64% 23.92% 40.04% Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim Leverkusen 38.81% 26.78% 34.41% 34.07%
Werder FC Bayern 21.52% 23.56% 54.92% 40.35%
Hertha Kaiserslautern 56.67% 25.97% 17.36% 41.87%
Nürnberg HSV 46.78% 26.62% 26.60% 36.05%
FC Cologne Stuttgart 23.31% 19.88% 56.81% 41.66%
Dortmund Gladbach 62.35% 23.06% 14.59% 46.32%
Augsburg Schalke 04 28.96% 25.67% 45.37% 35.56%
Hannover Freiburg 54.29% 22.55% 23.16% 39.92%
3.87 2.16 2.97 3.56

``    Average expected fixing: 39.54%``

Here, always as a reminder, are the values from the previous week. The main point is that the expected determination is calculated here once again in a comprehensible way.

``The determination arrived           ``

Pairing 1 X 2 Tendency
Mainz Wolfsburg 54.44% 21.64% 23.92% 0 21.64%
Hoffenheim Leverkusen 38.81% 26.78% 34.41% 2 34.41%
Werder FC Bayern 21.52% 23.56% 54.92% 2 54.92%
Hertha Kaiserslautern 56.67% 25.97% 17.36% 2 17.36%
Nuremberg HSV 46.78% 26.62% 26.60% 0 26.62%
FC Cologne Stuttgart 23.31% 19.88% 56.81% 0 19.88%
Dortmund Gladbach 62.35% 23.06% 14.59% 1 62.35%
Augsburg Schalke 04 28.96% 25.67% 45.37% 0 25.67%
Hanover Freiburg 54.29% 22.55% 23.16% 0 22.55%
1 5 3 2.85

``    average commitment received: 31.71%``

Another matchday of draws – and thus one of underdog events. And although two of the biggest favourites, Dortmund and Bayern, won, the “fixing” could have been spared. Below 33.33% always means it was worthless, as you would always reach this exactly with the shrug “I don’t know how the game will turn out and also have no favourites for 1, X or 2”.